Latest Version of Trump's Tariff Policy Released! Three Perspectives on Analyzing the Future of the Crypto Market

Introduction

With changes in the macroeconomic environment, policy uncertainty, and sustained technical pressure, the crypto market has entered a complex and challenging phase. These intertwined factors are influencing the trajectory of crypto assets. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. Trade Representative is currently exploring the possibility of imposing lower tariffs on certain countries. According to insiders, if implemented, this proposal would set tariff rates below the 20% universal tariff plan. This article analyzes the potential directions of the crypto market from three perspectives, aiming to help investors identify opportunities amidst the volatility.

Core Economic Data: Stagflation Pressure and Economic Weakness Impacting the Crypto Market

As Wall Street continues to pour capital into the crypto market, the influence of U.S. macroeconomic performance on the crypto market has become increasingly significant.

Currently, U.S. economic growth momentum has slowed considerably, and the risk of stagflation is gradually intensifying, casting a shadow over the crypto market.

According to the latest forecasts, the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be only 0.3%, the lowest level since 2022. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model even predicted a potential GDP contraction of 2.8%, while Goldman Sachs raised the probability of an economic recession within the next 12 months from 20% to 35%. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity continues to weaken, with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plummeting to -16.3, reflecting a worsening trend in economic fundamentals.

Inflationary pressures are equally concerning. In February, the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations and highlighting supply-side-driven inflationary pressure. The consumer confidence index fell to 57, its lowest level since 2022, while the rising savings rate indicates growing risk aversion. Against this economic backdrop, the appeal of risk assets has declined significantly, and the crypto market has been adversely affected. Bitcoin‘s price fell from its peak of $84,000 to $81,565, with trading volume shrinking sharply, signaling waning investor interest in risk assets.

However, the stagflation environment may also provide some support for the crypto market. Historically, when traditional financial markets face pressure, crypto assets like Bitcoin are often viewed as “digital gold,” serving as a hedge for investors. As economic data continues to weaken, some funds may turn to crypto assets as a means to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The future trajectory of the crypto market will depend on further changes in economic data and investors’ assessments of stagflation risks.

Policy and Liquidity: The Multifaceted Impact of Tariff Policies

The Trump administration’s upcoming “reciprocal tariff” policy has become a focal point of market attention.

This policy could have profound implications for the global trade system and economic recovery. According to details revealed by the White House, tariff measures may include a 25% tax rate on automobile imports, along with higher rates for industries such as pharmaceuticals and timber. Most notably, these tariff adjustments could be dynamic, with market concerns over their potential fluctuations further exacerbating uncertainty.

The direct impact of tariff policies is supply-side-driven inflationary pressure, which could further tighten market liquidity. The strength of the U.S. dollar index becomes a critical variable in this environment. If the dollar rebounds, it may offset some inflationary effects; however, if the dollar continues to weaken, inflationary pressure will intensify further. For the crypto market, this policy uncertainty may continue to dampen investor sentiment while reducing capital inflows into the market. Recently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen from its peak of $3.9 trillion to $2.9 trillion, with trading volume shrinking by approximately 70%, largely reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Nonetheless, tariff policies may also present short-term opportunities. If the details of the policy are finalized and market expectations ease, the crypto market could experience a brief rebound. Particularly if the tariff policy ultimately adopts a “milder version,” market confidence may gradually recover. Investors should monitor market reactions following the implementation of the policy and the progress of negotiations among nations, as these will determine the future trajectory of the crypto market. Additionally, changes in liquidity conditions should be closely observed, especially in the context of subsequent Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments, which could create new opportunities for capital flows into the crypto market.

Recent reports also indicate that the U.S. Trade Representative is exploring the possibility of imposing lower tariffs on certain countries. Insiders reveal that if implemented, this plan would set tariff rates below the 20% universal tariff scheme.

Market Technical Analysis: Short-Term Pressure and Potential Rebound

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin’s current trend remains weak.

On the daily chart, moving averages MA30, MA60, and MA120 are sloping downward, forming a bearish alignment, indicating further downside risks in the short term. Bitcoin’s price is currently oscillating around the $81,000 level, with technical indicators suggesting that the downward channel remains intact. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to test the $79,500 region for support. At the same time, shrinking trading volume and subdued market sentiment are exacerbating downward pressure.

However, there is also potential for a rebound. Certain technical indicators, such as Acc, are beginning to turn green, suggesting that the market may be nearing bottom levels. Coupled with news analysis, Bitcoin could see a short-term rebound following the implementation of tariff policies on April 2. Technical analysis recommends monitoring the $81,200 support zone; if prices resonate at this level, it could serve as the starting point for a rebound. Additionally, market structure indicates that the current phase may be the final stage of a bull-to-bear transition. Investors should remain vigilant against false rallies and avoid excessive chasing of gains.

Moreover, historical cycles show that Bitcoin typically undergoes two major surges during its acceleration phase. The current cycle has entered its 232nd day, approaching the end of the acceleration phase seen in previous cycles. This suggests the market may experience a brief explosive rebound, followed by a rapid loss of momentum and a reversal phase. Investors should pay close attention to market sentiment and price thresholds, seeking opportunities to sell at high levels or engage in counter-trend operations during the rebound.

In summary, the market is expected to remain in a state of consolidation in the short term, with limited rebound potential. However, the medium- to long-term outlook requires further analysis in light of the macroeconomic environment. The combination of technical and news factors will be crucial in determining the market’s next move.

Overall, the future of the crypto market is influenced by weak core economic data, policy uncertainty regarding tariffs, and technical weakness. In the short term, stagflation risks and liquidity tightening may continue to suppress the market, but the implementation of policies could bring short-term rebound opportunities. Investors should closely monitor market changes to identify trading opportunities while managing risks effectively to navigate the uncertainties and potential volatility of the market.