Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Coming? Observing the Crypto Market in April 2025

As of April 8, 2025, the fluctuations in the Bitcoin market have sparked widespread discussions: are we on the edge of a Bear Market? There is no simple answer to this question. Determining whether Bitcoin is entering a Bear Market requires looking at Price trend Comprehensive analysis is conducted from multiple dimensions such as technical indicators, on-chain data, macroeconomic environment, and market sentiment. This article will delve into these factors, attempting to provide a clear perspective on the current market situation.

Definition and Historical Background of Bear Market

In the traditional financial market, a bear market is usually defined as an asset price drop of 20% or more from recent highs, accompanied by a sustained period of downturn. Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, often experiences more intense bull and bear cycles.

From historical data, Bitcoin’s Bear Market usually occurs during the adjustment period after halving or global economic turmoil. For example, the prolonged bear market in 2018 and the crypto winter in 2022 both saw prices plummeting 70%-80% from their highs and lasting for several months or even years.

The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 is the most recent key milestone. After the halving, the supply of newly issued Bitcoins decreases, theoretically leading to a price increase. However, historical experience shows that the bull market after the halving does not happen immediately but takes several months to accumulate.

By the end of 2024, Bitcoin was once driven by the continued development of the US Bitcoin spot ETF, Trump’s strategic support, and other good news, and market sentiment once soared.

But by 2025, as the price began to pull back, some investors started to worry: is this a sign of a Bear Market?

Current price and technical analysis

As of today, Bitcoin price The market has shown significant volatility in the past few weeks. If the price falls below the 200-day moving average (a widely watched long-term trend indicator) or the previous low point (such as a key support level in 2024), technicians may see it as a Bear Market signal. However, relying solely on technical indicators is not enough to draw conclusions. The cyclical fluctuations in the Bitcoin market are often driven by external events rather than purely technical patterns.

For example, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may indicate short-term oversold conditions, but this is not uncommon in highly volatile markets. Similarly, the Fibonacci retracement levels for Bitcoin may suggest that the current price is in a key area, but whether it falls below psychological support levels (such as $50,000) will be a more important observation point. If the price continues to decline accompanied by increasing trading volume, it may signal an intensification of selling pressure, which is a typical characteristic of a Bear Market.

Signal of on-chain data

On-chain data provides us with deeper insights. Recently, there has been some fluctuation in the net inflow of Bitcoin on exchanges, which may reflect investors’ cautiousness or position adjustments.

The behavior of long-term holders (HODLers) is a key indicator: if a large number of old coins start to circulate and enter exchanges, it usually means that selling pressure is increasing, which may exacerbate the downward pressure. However, current data has not yet shown large-scale HODLer selling, indicating that market confidence has not completely collapsed.

On the other hand, the decrease in trading activity and the number of active addresses may imply a decrease in market participation. This can be interpreted as the calm before the bear market, or as a normal phenomenon in the bull market adjustment. In addition, the selling behavior of miners is worth paying attention to. After the halving, miners’ income decreases. If the Bitcoin price cannot cover the mining cost, it may lead to miners selling off inventory, further depressing the price.

Macroeconomics and external factors

Bitcoin does not exist in isolation, and its price trend is closely related to the global macroeconomy. By 2025, the global economy will face multiple uncertainties: whether the Fed’s monetary policy will continue to tighten, whether inflationary pressures will ease, and whether geopolitical risks will escalate, all of which may affect the flow of funds in the crypto market. If the dollar continues to strengthen or the stock market is under pressure, Bitcoin as a risk asset may be affected.

At the same time, institutional adoption of Bitcoin is also slowing down. Although the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States in 2024 is seen as a milestone, the pace of fund inflows in early 2025 seems to be below expectations. If institutional investors reduce their allocation due to deteriorating macro environment, Bitcoin may lose important support. In addition, the uncertainty of regulatory policies remains a potential risk, for example, restrictive measures on cryptocurrencies in certain countries may trigger chain reactions.

Market sentiment and social media views Market sentiment and social media views

Discussions about Bitcoin’s Bear Market on social media platforms like X are on the rise and fall. Some users point out that the general weakness of altcoins and the weakening of technical indicators indicate that the market is entering a downward channel. However, these views more reflect the emotional fluctuations of retail investors rather than being based on rigorous data analysis. At the same time, optimists believe that the current situation is only a healthy pullback in a bull market, and the long-term trend is still positive.

Market sentiment often has a self-fulfilling nature. If panic spreads, it may lead to more investors selling off, accelerating the decline. However, at present, the noise on social media has not yet translated into actual on-chain selling behavior, indicating that the market has not fully shifted to extreme pessimism.

Future Outlook and Judgment

Based on the above analysis, it is still inconclusive whether Bitcoin has entered a bear market. The current price correction may be a normal adjustment in a bull market, or it may be a prelude to a larger-scale decline. To confirm the bear market, we need to observe the following key points:

• Price trend: If Bitcoin falls below the key support level (such as $70,000) and continues to be sluggish, the possibility of a Bear Market will significantly increase.

• Capital Flow: A sharp increase in net inflows to exchanges or institutional fund withdrawals will be an important signal.

• Macroeconomic catalysts: Global economic deterioration or policy tightening may become external factors triggering a bear market.

• Time dimension: Bear markets typically require weeks to months of continuous decline, rather than short-term sharp fluctuations.

In the short term, Bitcoin may fluctuate around the current level, testing the solid support at the market bottom. If the price stabilizes and resumes its upward trend, it may be a buying opportunity; otherwise, if the decline intensifies, investors need to be prepared for risk management.

The future trend of Bitcoin is full of uncertainty, which is the source of its charm. For investors, the primary task at the moment is not to rush to conclusions, but to closely monitor data and market dynamics.