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量化ファンドが予測市場に殺到:六大モデルが明らかになり、Polymarketの取引戦略が専門化段階に突入
As institutional investors and quantitative funds enter prediction markets, the industry structure is undergoing transformation. In 2026, prediction market trading volume will surge past $13.7 billion, with quantitative strategies becoming increasingly mainstream and adopting mature financial models to achieve stable returns. Core methodologies include LMSR, Kelly Criterion, and Bayesian updates, with technical implementation focusing on data quality and execution efficiency. Retail investors struggle to replicate institutional advantages without modeling capabilities.
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