Let the Little Whale Fly, and Fly Out a $TRUMP

Golden cups for you to drink, blades that show no mercy—everyone views Trump and Milley as part of the international far-right alliance, but their token issuance antics make this open-top car alliance seem more like an “abstract figure that doesn’t look like a leader.”

Then, on Valentine’s Day, Trump offered reciprocal tariffs to the world, but clearly, he gave them a discount. Although the tariffs would only take effect in April, he was already releasing the news early, hoping to get others to negotiate terms, as though he were creating cards out of thin air.

In the face of Milley’s international scams, no one expected Trump to issue his own tokens. Meanwhile, on Milley’s side, people had forgotten the lesson of the one-day fame of the African president’s celebrity token. This was largely because Milley championed liberalism, which had a substantial audience in the crypto world. In the end, those who loved you ended up hurting you the most.

Now, turning to the influence of DeepSeek, companies from China, the U.S., and Europe are all connecting to it. The hardest part to dismantle is when U.S. capitalists call on the U.S. government to impose sanctions and bans. This, in reality, is not very capitalistic and is more akin to industrial policy—quite the opposite of free-market ideals.

Although no one expected DeepSeek to launch an open-source and low-cost technological offensive, the stereotype has always been that domestic industries (in China) are not good at open-source or innovation, but rather at copying and applying ideas. However, DeepSeek has completely changed this perception, and under its influence, OpenAI may even reconsider its open-source strategy.

Essentially, this is happening because the U.S. has undergone de-industrialization. The only thing maintaining the dollar’s international purchasing power is the overvaluation of its financial industry. This means that all technologies and products must eventually become financial miracles to prove the superiority of the U.S.

From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, it is clear what Trump’s main focus for the next four years will be: the direction of financialization is unquestionable. Re-industrialization is impossible, but there is a big risk of using the guise of re-industrialization to make money.

Because DeepSeek Came, the AI Narrative Faces a Phase of Collapse

In the DeepSeek event, Trump first praised, then banned, and then praised again, delivering a performance akin to a hat-trick. However, according to the latest news from Bloomberg, DeepSeek’s valuation is between $1 billion and $155 billion, roughly half of OpenAI’s valuation, which could become part of the “Pente” valuation system.

However, with more and more U.S. capitalists getting involved, the principle of “who doesn’t love free stuff” stands out. DeepSeek will also severely disrupt Trump’s thinking, as his reciprocal tariff policy is essentially a political weapon, not an economic measure.

In Trump’s perception, because other countries can enjoy “Most-Favored-Nation” status, the U.S. needs to lower the tariffs on foreign products entering the U.S. but impose higher tariffs on U.S. products entering other countries. But in reality, this is an inevitable consequence of the U.S. choosing to base its foundation on finance and the internationalization of the dollar. If the U.S. doesn’t maintain its trade deficit position, other countries will be unable to obtain U.S. dollars for trade. Given this, combined with the latest statements from the Federal Reserve, we need to anticipate Powell’s management of expectations on interest rate hikes and cuts for a considerable period. In practice, this will be similar to housing prices in Eastern countries—they can’t rise, but they also can’t fall.

Returning to the price predictions for Web3, we need to establish the following four foundational understandings. Otherwise, it might seem like Meme tokens and BNB Chain are the future mainstream, but that is far from the truth:

1. U.S. stocks need to find a new support point. Whatever U.S. stocks are saying, the crypto market will follow. The crypto market lacks independent trends.
2. Currently, capital is flowing into various ETFs, with little capital flowing out of the crypto space. This is mainly due to the absence of a supportive technological narrative. Purely meme-driven PVP (Player vs. Player) markets cannot attract long-term capital for serious engagement.
3. Next, look at U.S. stocks. ETFs, DeepSeek’s response (new AI algorithms, embodied intelligence direction, new biotech directions), Ondo + BlackRock, governments, and traditional finance or governments moving on-chain.
4. With Nvidia’s market cap returning to 3 trillion, the U.S. stock market has largely recovered from the DeepSeek impact. GPT and Google have released new products, but the market’s reaction has been lukewarm. Although they managed to barely survive, new hot spots will need to be found to save AI and the computational power valuation leverage.

Overall, I remain positive about both U.S. stocks and the crypto market. If Musk moves government information and capital on-chain—whether on Ethereum or Solana—that would lead to a new super bull market. However, if he builds a private consortium chain, it won’t be as exciting.

Web3 Won’t Collapse Due to Meme Tokens

Under the impact of the DeepSeek shockwave, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a phase of collapse. After the $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA triple hit drained all liquidity from the Meme PVP mechanism, we have now entered the boring phase of second-hand time.

CZ still maintains influence over Binance, such as in the case of TST’s listing on Binance, where he criticizes Binance’s listing policy. However, things are gradually shifting. Under the U.S. Department of Justice’s regulation, Binance, Labs, and BNB Chain have now completely separated. The entire process from investment and incubation to token listings has been broken apart. I’ve always believed that the regulatory crackdown on Binance is the true cause behind the collapse of the VC token narrative—at least, it was the first domino in the chain.

Binance spent years consolidating the process of establishing and ultimately distributing tokens. The strongest liquidity led to the biggest listing price increases, and the biggest listing price increases caused project teams to offer discounted deals to Labs and BNB holders. This cycle repeated itself, ultimately creating the strongest Web3 wealth group.

But now, these conditions no longer exist:

• BN, BN Labs, and BNB Chain have effectively separated, and project teams on BNB Chain and Labs can no longer rely on reliable token listing commitments.
• The rise of DEX (Decentralized Exchanges) presents a risk that Binance’s main platform and other CEXs (Centralized Exchanges) could become a single exit route for tokens, where simply improving the listing process won’t solve the fundamental issues.
• The underlying problem with VC tokens is the phase-out of the technical narrative. On BNB Chain, which has dominated Meme, DeSci, and AI Agent, it will be difficult to maintain long-term effects.

However, there’s no need to be overly concerned. While Web3 may not have many other advantages, its robustness is as resilient as ever. The true challenge ahead is that, after BTC and ETH, more Altcoin ETFs will gradually be approved, continuously siphoning liquidity that should have entered the PVP market. With VC and Meme tokens failing to maintain their relevance, the real question is: where does the crypto market go from here?

In other words, it’s possible to abandon the current VC token model with its high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) and low liquidity. It’s also possible to stick to Meme tokens and simply “Buidl” in an honest way—but new ideas are essential. Based on the lessons from the crises of 2017 and 2021, Web3 will eventually find a new paradigm. However, anyone holding onto old ideas will be left behind.

Under the crisis facing CEXs like Binance, the opportunity for DEXs has already arrived. However, with Jupiter’s performance and ongoing controversy, Solana is faster but still not as stable as the ETH ecosystem. By February, the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) surrounding ETH had already peaked, and with the inevitable reversal, the pace of change in the crypto world is rapid, causing unnecessary anxiety—but in reality, it’s not something to worry too much about.

Conclusion

The process of discarding the old and embracing the new is a natural law. In the current macroeconomic climate full of uncertainties, the continuous development of DEXs has already shown us that what was once considered an indispensable “evil” (CEXs) can indeed be challenged. This time, it’s not a technology-driven innovation like ETH ZK L2, but rather a combination of product thinking and existing technological innovation. DeepSeek’s success has already proven that engineering progress is a necessary path for the widespread dissemination of technology.

In the past, BTC was the exclusive realm of the elite; now it has flown into the hands of ordinary people.

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