Preface

This report summarizes Web3 industry policy developments and macroeconomic events for February 2025. It covers key global economic and crypto market events, including economic data releases, policy adjustments, and industry developments. From the US government announcing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, to Oklahoma legislators proposing a Bitcoin Freedom Bill, to 10 companies receiving approval to issue stablecoins under the EU’s MiCA regulatory framework—these events have profound implications for market participants and policymakers alike. This article examines and analyzes these key events to help readers understand the current economic landscape and potential developments.

Abstract

• February 1: US government announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada, causing significant volatility in cryptocurrency markets
• February 3: US government reached an agreement with Mexico and Canada to suspend the planned tariffs immediately
• February 3: Oklahoma state legislators proposed a Bitcoin Freedom Bill for consideration in the 60th Legislative Session
• February 7: US Congress addressed concerns about cryptocurrency debanking, with FDIC policy shifts drawing attention
• February 11: US one-year inflation expectations remained steady at 3% in January, while five-year expectations rose from 2.7% to 3%
• February 12: US CPI rose to 3% for the first time since June last year
• February 15: Fed’s Logan stated that cooling inflation would not necessarily trigger interest rate cuts
• February 18: US February NY Fed Manufacturing Index at 5.7, better than the expected -1 and previous -12.6
• February 21: 10 companies received approval to issue stablecoins in the EU under the MiCA regulatory framework
• February 25: US Consumer Confidence Index declined significantly in February
• February 25: South Dakota rejected the Bitcoin Treasury Reserve Bill
• February 26: Oklahoma’s “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act” (HB 1203) passed House committee and advanced to full vote stage

Timeline

Key Developments and Updates

February 1 – US Government Announced Tariff Increases on Mexico and Canada, Causing Market Turbulence

On February 1, the U.S. government announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. President Donald Trump signed the executive order on the same day, imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from these two countries and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada. The tariffs were set to take effect on February 4. The White House stated that if Canada or Mexico retaliated with their own tariffs, the U.S. might increase tariffs further. Due to this tariff policy, BTC dropped to around $97,000, its lowest level in over two weeks. Altcoins saw even steeper declines, with DOGE falling by approximately 14% during the trading session. The tariff increase raised global economic uncertainty, potentially leading to trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and weakened market confidence, which resulted in significant turbulence in the global cryptocurrency market. [1]

February 3 – US Government Reached Agreement with Mexico and Canada to Suspend Expected Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the planned tariff increases on Mexico and Canada would be immediately postponed for one month, pending further negotiations. This decision came after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to strengthen border security with the U.S.—some of which had already been previously agreed upon. On Monday, Trump stated on Truth Social: “I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States.“ Following Trudeau’s announcement of a 30-day tariff suspension, Trump later posted a similar statement on the platform, officially confirming the postponement of tariffs. [2]

February 3 – Oklahoma Legislators Proposed a Bitcoin Freedom Bill for Consideration in the 60th Legislative Session

Oklahoma State Senator Dustin Devers introduced SB325, known as the Bitcoin Freedom Bill, for deliberation in the 60th Legislative Session starting on February 3. The bill aims to allow employees in Oklahoma to receive their salaries in Bitcoin and permits businesses to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. Devers stated: “In a time when inflation erodes the purchasing power of hard-working Oklahomans, Bitcoin provides a unique opportunity to protect earnings and investments. As Bitcoin continues to rise and the value of the dollar continues to be printed away in Washington D.C., Oklahoma must act to protect our people.” SB325 ensures that participation is voluntary, upholding free-market principles and granting employees, employers, and businesses the power to choose their preferred payment method. [3]

February 7 – US Congress Addressed Crypto Banking Restrictions, FDIC Policy Shift Raises Concerns

The House Financial Services Committee recently held a hearing on regulatory agencies pressuring banks and crypto businesses. Republican lawmakers criticized the Biden administration, accusing it of stifling innovation, while Democratic legislators defended increased regulation, arguing that it is necessary to mitigate risks. At the same time, the Senate Banking Committee debated similar issues, highlighting the continued political divide over crypto regulation in the U.S. government.

Additionally, courts ordered the FDIC to expedite the disclosure of regulatory documents. Following Travis Hill’s appointment as Acting FDIC Chairman by the Trump administration, the agency has released numerous relevant files, signaling a potential regulatory policy shift. Senator Cynthia Lummis also disclosed internal Federal Reserve documents, further strengthening allegations about “Operation Chokepoint.” These developments reflect evolving changes in the U.S. crypto regulatory landscape, with future congressional hearings likely to maintain focus on the industry’s direction. [4]

February 11 – U.S. One-Year Inflation Expectation Holds at 3%, Five-Year Inflation Expectation Rises to 3%

On February 11, the latest monthly survey from the New York Federal Reserve revealed that due to the Trump administration’s upcoming tariff announcements, the one- to three-year inflation expectation in the U.S. remained stable at 3% in January, while the five-year inflation expectation increased from 2.7% to 3%, the highest level since May last year.

If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Federal Reserve may exercise more caution regarding rate cuts, potentially leading to tightened global liquidity, a stronger U.S. dollar, and pressure on emerging markets. The rise in inflation expectations could also result in a slower pace of interest rate cuts, which may be a bearish signal for both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market. [5]

February 12 – U.S. CPI Rises to 3% for the First Time Since June Last Year

On February 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Consumer Price Index data, revealing a 0.5% increase in consumer prices from December to January—the sharpest rise since August 2023. The annual inflation rate reached 3% for the 12 months ending in January. This CPI uptick emerged as a potential bearish signal for markets, raising questions about future rate cuts. The previously positive market sentiment shifted as investors grew concerned about inflation. Consequently, U.S. stock markets opened lower on February 12: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 395 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite declined 1% and 1.1%, respectively. [6]

February 15 – Fed’s Logan Says Cooling Inflation May Not Necessarily Trigger Rate Cuts

On February 15, Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that interest rates were approaching neutral levels—levels that neither stimulate nor restrain economic growth. She suggested that further rate cuts might be unnecessary even as inflation cools. With strong demand and stable employment, Logan explained that inflation’s movement toward the Fed’s target suggests the benchmark policy rate is near neutral. She emphasized that if these conditions persist, there would be limited room for rate cuts soon, though the Fed might lower rates if labor market conditions worsen. Policymakers maintained rates at their January 28-29 meeting, following three rate cuts in 2024 that had already reduced the benchmark rate by a full percentage point.

Logan’s remarks indicate a potential pause in Fed rate cuts, which could limit additional market liquidity in the near term. As a result, global stock markets—especially high-valuation tech stocks and risk assets—may experience downward pressure. Given the cryptocurrency market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic policies, investors might be more cautious, possibly leading to heightened volatility in crypto markets. [7]

February 18 – NY Fed Manufacturing Index at 5.7, Surpassing Expectations of -1 and Previous -12.6

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index reached 5.7 in February, surpassing the previous month’s -12.6 reading and market expectations of -1. This shift into expansion territory (above zero) signals a significant turnaround in New York’s manufacturing sector. The stronger-than-expected data indicates growing demand and increased production activity. For markets, this development offers an encouraging sign that the U.S. economy—especially its manufacturing sector—continues to show robust growth momentum. [8]

February 21 – 10 Companies Receive Stablecoin Issuance Approval Under EU’s MiCA Framework

Patrick Hansen, Senior Director of EU Strategy & Policy at Circle, announced that 10 companies have received approval to issue stablecoins under the MiCA regulatory framework in the EU. The approved list includes Banking Circle, stablecoin issuer Circle, Crypto.Com, Fiat Republic, Membrane Finance, Quantoz Payments, Schuman Financial, Société Générale, StabIR, and Stable Mint. He added that these service providers have issued 10 euro-pegged stablecoins and 5 USD-pegged stablecoins. Notably, Tether is not included in this list.

This milestone marks a pivotal phase in implementing the EU’s cryptocurrency regulatory framework, bringing wide-ranging impacts across the industry. The framework’s requirements will likely prompt projects to strengthen their compliance measures while gradually increasing demand for essential services like on-chain auditing and asset custody. The derivative market potential could reach tens of billions of euros. As the first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulations to be fully implemented worldwide, the MiCA framework may become a blueprint for other regions—though its success will ultimately depend on market adoption and regulatory enforcement. [9]

February 25 – U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Shows Sharp Decline

On February 25, the Conference Board released new data showing a significant drop in the Consumer Confidence Index, indicating growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The index fell to 98.3 in February, down 7 points from January’s 105.3, falling below market expectations of 102.3. This marks the lowest level since June 2024 and represents the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The index has now declined for three consecutive months. A continued decline in consumer confidence could dampen consumer spending and slow economic growth, warranting close attention to subsequent policy adjustments and economic indicators. [10]

February 25 – South Dakota Rejects Bitcoin Treasury Reserve Bill

The South Dakota House Commerce and Energy Committee shelved House Bill 1202 on February 24. The bill would have allowed the state government to include Bitcoin in its treasury reserves. However, it was effectively rejected because it was scheduled for “Day 41” of the legislative session, which only runs for 40 days. The proposal had sparked intense debate, with supporters viewing Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and opponents worried that its price volatility would affect state fiscal stability.

As the first state in 2025 to reject a government Bitcoin holding plan, South Dakota’s decision stands in contrast to recent similar bill approvals in Texas and Florida. This move may influence other conservative states like Wyoming and Utah—which are considering comparable legislation—to reassess their political and financial risks. The decision has temporarily halted a potential $1.7 billion Bitcoin allocation from state pension funds and trust accounts, which could affect the growth of institutional crypto custody services. The situation illustrates the contrasting approaches to cryptocurrency regulation across U.S. state governments: tech-driven economies favor open policies, while states dominated by agriculture and energy maintain a more cautious stance. [11]

February 26 – Oklahoma House Committee Passes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (HB 1203), Moves to Full Chamber

On February 26, 2025, the Oklahoma House Finance Committee approved the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (HB 1203), which would authorize state funds to allocate up to 10% of their fiscal reserves to Bitcoin (BTC). The bill has now moved to the full House for a vote and, if passed, will take effect in the 2026 fiscal year. If enacted, this legislation would mark the first state-level policy in the U.S. allowing large-scale government investment in digital assets, potentially triggering several significant effects: First, substantial funds from Oklahoma’s fiscal reserves would flow into the crypto market, directly increasing institutional BTC holdings; Second, the legislative framework could serve as a template for other states, with Arizona already initiating similar proposal studies; Third, the bill mandates that digital assets must meet the criteria of being listed on compliant exchanges and ranking among the top five by market capitalization, which may accelerate the compliance efforts of platforms such as Gate. [12]

Summary

February 2025 saw complex and dynamic developments across global economic and financial markets. The month began with cryptocurrency markets experiencing significant volatility after the U.S. government announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada—though these were quickly suspended following an agreement with both countries. Key economic indicators painted a mixed picture: U.S. CPI reached 3% for the first time since June 2024, while the February Consumer Confidence Index declined sharply, suggesting potential headwinds for broader capital markets. In the regulatory sphere, contrasting state-level approaches to cryptocurrency emerged as South Dakota rejected the Bitcoin Treasury Reserve Bill (HB 1202), while Oklahoma’s House Finance Committee advanced the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (HB 1203). These interconnected developments shaped immediate market performance and offered valuable insights for future economic policy-making and market directions.


References:

1. Coindesk,https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/04/ethereum-raises-gas-limits-for-first-time-since-2021-boosting-eth-appeal
2. X,https://x.com/OndoFinance/status/1887522597480337672
3. X,https://x.com/etherscan/status/1888401431641907591
4. X,https://x.com/SolanaFloor/status/1889701379607794128
5. Theblock,https://www.theblock.co/post/341424/hyperliquid-launches-hyperevm-on-mainnet-to-bring-general-purpose-programmability
6. Coindesk,https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/21/bitcoin-ether-slumps-as-crypto-prices-crumble-on-report-of-massive-usd1-4b-bybit-security-incident
7. X,https://x.com/Stake_Stone/status/1894714594230460681
8. X,https://x.com/MetaMask/status/1895292999615369660

Gate Research
Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that delivers in-depth content. This includes technical analysis, hot topic insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Click here to visit now

Disclaimer
Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk, and it is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they purchase before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages caused by such investment decisions.