Introduction

This report summarizes the weekly update from Gate Research: Global On-Chain RWA Exceeds $15B, Sonic Chain TVL Rises 188% in 7D in the “What to Watch Next Week - Crypto Calendar - Macro Sector.” The U.S. New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations for December were 3%, compared to the previous reading of 2.97%. The U.S. December PPI annual rate was recorded at 3.3%, below market expectations of 3.4%. The U.S. December’s unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.9%, meeting market expectations of 2.9%.

Summary

• January 14 — U.S. New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 3%, previous reading was 2.97%
• January 14 — U.S. December PPI annual rate recorded at 3.3%, market expectation was 3.4%, continuing to hit new highs since February 2023
• January 15 — U.S. December unadjusted CPI annual rate at 2.9%, meeting market expectations of 2.9%

Key Focus Events

January 14 — U.S. New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 3%, previous reading was 2.97%

expectations rose and long-term expectations fell. Expectations declined across three areas: unemployment rates, voluntary job departures, and the likelihood of finding work after unemployment. While expected household income growth for the next year dipped slightly to pre-pandemic levels, spending growth expectations increased and continued to exceed pre-pandemic figures.

The median one-year inflation expectation remained unchanged at 3%, the three-year inflation expectation median rose from 2.6% to 3%, and the five-year inflation expectation median decreased from 2.9% to 2.7%. The increase in three-year inflation expectations was widespread across age, education, and income groups. However, the decrease in five-year inflation expectations was primarily driven by respondents under 40 and was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less.

The median home price growth expectation increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%. Since August 2023, this figure has remained within the range of 3% to 3.3%. Food price expectations for the next year rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4%, while other commodity price expectations declined. One-year gasoline price expectations decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2% (the lowest reading since September 2022), college education cost expectations dropped by 1 percentage point to 5.7%, medical cost expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8%, and rent expectations fell by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%.[1]

January 14 — U.S. December PPI annual rate recorded at 3.3%, below market expectation of 3.4%, hitting new highs since February 2023

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the December PPI annual rate came in at 3.3%, below the expected 3.4% but higher than the previous reading of 3%. This marks a new high since February 2023. PPI is a leading indicator of CPI and accounts for a large portion of overall CPI. A lower-than-expected PPI reading typically has a negative impact on the dollar, as it suggests manufacturers are struggling to pass increased costs to consumers, possibly due to weak demand or intense competition. The latest PPI data indicates that CPI will likely remain at moderate levels. CPI is considered to significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months. With the job market maintaining resilience and robust economic growth, U.S. core inflation may only cool slightly by the end of 2024, supporting the Fed’s stance on slowing the rate cuts.[2]

January 15 — U.S. December unadjusted CPI annual rate at 2.9%, meeting market expectations of 2.9%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November’s 2.7% increase. Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy costs) increased 3.2% year-over-year, lower than November’s 3.3%. The monthly CPI rose 0.4% in December, compared to November’s 0.3% increase. Core CPI also increased by 0.2%, below November’s 0.3% gain. According to FactSet consensus, economists had expected consumer prices to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.8%. Core inflation was expected to rise 0.2%, with the annual rate remaining 3.3%.[3]

Conclusion

Multiple macroeconomic events influenced the crypto market trends from January 11 to January 17, 2025. The report comprehensively analyzes important developments in both the crypto market and macro economy. The U.S. New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations came in at 3%, up from the previous 2.97%. The U.S. December PPI annual rate recorded 3.3%, below market expectations of 3.4%, reaching new highs since February 2023. The U.S. December’s unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.9%, meeting market expectations, with economists anticipating a 0.3% month-over-month increase in consumer prices according to FactSet consensus.


References:

1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York,https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250113
2. CNBC,https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/ppi-december-2024-.html
3. MorningStar,https://www.morningstar.com/economy/december-us-cpi-report-shows-inflation-29-annual-rate

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