Alpha First:

• The market is healthy but overextended, and there’s no clear consensus on the next big bid.
• Trumpcoin marks the generational memecoin top—is it time for SocialFi?
• Emerging narratives: SocialFi, AI, Dinocoins, and more are all competing for the spotlight.

Market Health

Despite the recent insanity, I think the market is generally healthy. The major three indicators of the crypto market all look really good to me.

1. Bitcoin’s Strength at Range Highs

Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the top of its range, signaling strength rather than weakness. ~$105k feels like a strong price point for Bitcoin in this scenario. It’s a level that reflects broader confidence in crypto’s long-term prospects without being overly exuberant.

Bitcoin looks healthy consolidating at the top of a range here

While we didn’t get the bombshell announcements some hoped for—like a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (BSR) or sweeping tax incentives for crypto—there have been incremental wins. The pardon of Ross Ulbricht, for example, was a subtle but important indicator that Trump’s administration had not abandoned crypto-friendly policies. Regulatory clarity, while slow-moving, is on a constructive trajectory.

2. Stablecoin Supply Growth

Another bullish signal is the steady increase in stablecoin supply. Historically, this has been a reliable leading indicator of institutional interest and market liquidity. It’s worth asking: who is minting these stablecoins at such high rates?

Stablecoin supply keeps moving up

The scale of the minting suggests that institutions really are sizing into the market. If you’re skeptical, just check the data from@whale_alert""> @whale_alert and similar on-chain monitoring tools. The capital is moving, even if it’s not immediately obvious in altcoin performance.

3. Expanding Total Market Cap

The total crypto market cap continues to expand

Finally, the total crypto market cap is continuing to grow. This growth reflects Bitcoin’s strength and expanding stablecoin supply, reinforcing that the market isn’t on the brink of collapse. Instead, it’s consolidating and positioning itself for the next phase of growth—whatever form that may take. This doesn’t look like doomsday.

Narrative Risk: The Plot Has Been Reset

One of the key reasons we aren’t seeing dramatic moves in specific altcoin sectors is the market’s narrative indecision. This is what I call narrative risk — the danger of allocating capital to the wrong story because the market has lost its sense of direction.

Let’s consider the recent memecoin mania. Trump didn’t announce a BSR or anything particularly groundbreaking, but he did launch a memecoin. Then Melania launched one, and rumors swirled that Barron might have done the same. Traders jumped on each of these opportunities with incredible enthusiasm, myself included.

This unexpected burst of memecoin activity has thrown the market into chaos, leaving more questions than answers. Is this the memecoin supercycle or the blow off top? Should we go back to bidding AI coins? Why does the XRP price chart look so good? Nobody, including the market itself, seems to know where to allocate in size right now.

Memecoins: It’s All Joever

I hate to be the one to break it to you but this is probably the last leg of the memecoin trade. Trump’s entrance into the space has dominated attention and mindshare to a degree that’s difficult to overstate. The key question now is: who else could possibly launch a memecoin at this scale? The answer is likely “nobody.”

To use Kel’s terminology, I think we’ve filled the attention wick

Memecoins, at their core, are tokenized attention. They thrive on capturing mindshare and converting it into speculative capital. For years, this dynamic fueled explosive growth in the memecoin market. But with Trump entering the arena, we’ve hit the ultimate ceiling. Trump isn’t just another celebrity or influencer; he represents a supermajority of global attention. No other figure or event could realistically rival his ability to dominate the cultural and media landscape.

This is why memecoins as an asset class have likely topped. The marginal growth opportunities for tokenized attention have evaporated because the largest possible attention pool has already been tapped. Sure, Trumpcoin might still see further gains, potentially dragging other memecoins along for a final parabolic run. But this would be more of an epilogue than a new chapter.

SocialFi (Clout & Yapster)

If the memecoin narrative is to evolve, it will need to pivot toward something more sustainable and expansive. Enter SocialFi. By combining speculative fervor with deeper, more personal engagement, SocialFi has the potential to extend the memecoin story. Instead of betting on cultural phenomena or celebrity-driven tokens, SocialFi allows for investment in personal connections and community dynamics. In this sense, it’s the natural evolution of the memecoin concept—one that moves beyond raw attention to foster more meaningful interactions and longer-term value creation.

Who remembers the good ole days?

Why SocialFi Matters

SocialFi represents my “white whale” narrative. The winning project in this space will likely combine elements of social media and online gaming, creating a hybrid platform that’s both engaging and profitable. It’s essentially Facebook meets a casino, and the potential for mass adoption is enormous.

Currently, two projects stand out:

• Clout: Clout focuses on tokenizing social influence by allowing users with significant followings (10,000+ followers) to create personal tokens. Built on Solana, it combines Friend.tech’s monetization features with simplified token issuance and integrations with DEXs like Raydium. Clout has seen early success—its first token, $PASTERNAK, reached an $80M market cap within hours. The platform’s seamless onboarding through credit cards and Apple Pay lowers the barrier for Web2 users, but its open structure disperses liquidity across many influencers, which could dilute community focus.
• Yapster: Yapster, on the other hand, is an innovative SocialFi project blending social media, gaming, and cryptocurrency on Solana. Its approach feels more concentrated, rallying the community around shared goals rather than dispersing liquidity across multiple influencers. Users participate in daily game shows, paying a 0.25 SOL entry fee to create and vote on memes. Winning memes can even be minted as tokens, with distributions tied to participants’ scores. This concentrated dynamic—focusing on singular memes rather than numerous influencers—creates stronger, unified liquidity flows. Yapster’s exclusivity (invite-only beta) further fosters a tightly-knit, engaged community. One standout example: its first token achieved a $25M market cap in just 10 minutes, demonstrating its ability to drive rapid engagement and value creation.

Stability issues due to excess demand are always bullish

While Clout offers scalability and simplicity for influencers, Yapster’s concentrated mechanics and community-driven design make it my current favorite. It focuses on turning collective attention into tangible outcomes, which feels more sustainable and engaging than spreading liquidity thinly across a multitude of personalities.

Dinocoins (XRP, HBAR, XLM)

What is dead may never die, but rises again harder and stronger

• George R R Martin

The Dinocoins—XRP, HBAR, and XLM—are this cycle’s quintessential hated trade. A hated trade works because it exposes the emotional biases of other market participants. Skepticism and disdain often mean that many investors are under-allocated, leaving money on the sidelines. When a hated trade starts to rally, these participants are forced to capitulate and buy in, fueling the move further.

Bitcoin and XRP charted with no comment

Crypto Twitter has long dismissed Dinocoins as outdated relics of a bygone era, branding them irrelevant in the face of newer, flashier narratives. However, this very disdain has set the stage for their surprising resurgence.

Why Pay Attention Now?

Despite their reputation on Twitter, Dinocoins are showing remarkable strength in price action and institutional adoption. Here’s why they deserve a closer look:

• Institutional Validation: These tokens have doubled down on their “buttoned-up” approach to crypto, focusing on real-world use cases and partnerships. Ripple’s new stablecoin, RLUSD, highlights a push toward mainstream financial integration. Partnerships like XRP’s with Santander and HBAR’s with the World Gemological Institute underscore a clear commitment to institutional adoption.

Not your standard XRP Army account—this is a good research shop bull posting

• Regulatory Positioning: With the anticipation of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, these tokens are well-positioned. ISO 20022 compliance (whatever that even means) for XRP and XLM enhances their credibility within traditional finance systems. Furthermore, speculation about ETFs for XRP and HBAR adds another layer of intrigue, even if Bitcoin ETFs remain the primary focus.

The dichotomy is striking: while the broader crypto crowd sneers, institutions may quietly embracing these tokens. Love them or hate them, Dinocoins are making moves that could redefine their role in the market. Their focus on compliance, partnerships, and tangible use cases may very well end up being the winning strategy, especially if they can win over regulators.

Hedge Fund Liquid Bags

For those who still believe in fair launches, here’s a reality check: the lifecycle of most tokens isn’t as democratic as it might appear at first glance.

1. Teams Build a Project: Initially, a team develops a project with a vision for decentralized finance or infrastructure. They create a token as part of this ecosystem.

2. VCs Fund the Project for Locked Tokens: Venture capitalists (VCs) step in, providing capital in exchange for tokens that are locked or vest over time. This means the tokens are not immediately available for sale, which theoretically aligns the interests of VCs with the long-term success of the project.

3. VCs Sell Locked & Vesting Tokens OTC to Liquid Funds: Once these tokens begin to unlock or vest, VCs look to liquidate their holdings. They do this by selling these tokens over-the-counter (OTC) to liquid funds. These funds are typically well-capitalized entities looking to buy large volumes of tokens at a discount.

4. Liquid Funds Sell into High-Volume Pumps (⭐️ you are here): After acquiring these tokens, liquid funds then aim to create or capitalize on market hype. They promote narratives on platforms like Twitter to drive up interest and trading volume, creating conditions where they can sell these tokens at a profit.

In real terms

For context: Raydium looks pretty vested

Between 2021 and 2023, there was a significant influx of venture capital into the crypto space, particularly for DeFi and infrastructure projects. This funding was often exchanged for tokens that were locked or subject to vesting schedules. Now, as these tokens have largely vested, venture capitalists are at a juncture where they need to liquidate these assets to return profits to their Limited Partners (LPs). This necessity has led prominent VCs to call for more liquid funds starting in mid-2024. These funds play a critical role by purchasing the illiquid tokens over-the-counter (OTC), providing VCs with a market for their vested tokens.

Don’t hate the player hate the game, but VCs are telling you to raise liquid funds so they can offload their tokens to newly minted liquid funds OTC and start distributing last cycle’s profits to their LPs

The relationship between VCs, liquid funds, and the broader market isn’t necessarily one of malice but reflects the natural flow of capital within the crypto ecosystem. VCs rely on well-capitalized liquid funds to buy their tokens, which are often traded at a discount due to their illiquid nature. In turn, these funds look to create or amplify market narratives on Twitter to generate high trading volumes where they can offload these tokens at a profit.

Narrative alignment happening on my timeline

This doesn’t have to be evil, I’m even buying some of these tokens, but you should know your counterparty and be generally aware of token lifecycles.

AI Agents & DeFAI

DeFAI has the potential to replace many existing tools in crypto. With enough integrations, a DeFAI router could function as: A yield aggregator/optimizer, A DEX & perpetuals aggregator, A portfolio manager, or more.

However, I remain skeptical about AI agents that “make you money.” Market dynamics ensure that alpha decays over time. That said, DeFAI could simplify the implementation of personal trading strategies and portfolio management, making it a valuable tool for individual investors.

AI is currently at a crossroads. The narrative has already seen several distinct phases: first with infrastructure projects like Bittensor, then agent-focused initiatives like AIXBT, followed by agent launchpads like Virtuals, and frameworks like AI16Z. Now, the latest evolution centers around DeFAI.

A Major Narrative Still in Formation

AI is undoubtedly one of the dominant narratives of this cycle, but how it will manifest long-term remains uncertain. The shift to DeFAI is particularly interesting because it doesn’t promise magical, alpha-generating agents. Instead, it emphasizes utility—streamlining processes for yield optimization, trading, and portfolio management.

What makes DeFAI particularly intriguing is its potential to consolidate the fragmented landscape of crypto tools. Imagine a single router capable of integrating multiple financial tools seamlessly, reducing friction for users. While the idea of “money-making AI agents” feels far-fetched, DeFAI’s strength lies in its ability to empower users to execute their strategies with greater efficiency.

A Cycle of Evolving Narratives

As with all major narratives, the AI space has evolved rapidly, fueled by hype and experimentation. From the promises of AI-based financial independence to the practical utility of DeFAI, the space reflects the market’s broader shift toward functionality over fantasy. It’s clear that AI will continue to be a central theme, but the winners will be those who adapt their offerings to meet real-world needs while avoiding overpromises.

The crypto market remains a puzzle. Narratives are shifting rapidly, and the winners will be those who can anticipate where the crowd’s attention will flow next. Stay sharp, remain flexible, and don’t lose sight of the bigger picture.

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