1. Current Technical Analysis

1. Trends and Moving Averages:
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- Mid-term trend: EMA20 (76,293) and EMA60 (50,231) are both diverging upwards, and the mid-term bullish pattern remains unchanged.
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- Short-term trend: Pulled back from the high point of 111,963, the current price is 104,811, in the pullback phase.
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2. Oscillator Indicator (KDJ):
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- K=79.9, D=76.9, J=85.8, all in the overbought range (typically KDJ>70 is considered overbought), indicating significant short-term pullback pressure.
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3. Momentum Indicator (MACD):
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- DIF (16,541) is still above DEA (14,239), with a positive histogram. Bullish momentum has not fully exhausted yet, but caution is needed for "top divergence" or reversal signals.
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4. Bollinger Bands (BOLL):
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- Upper track (115,186), middle track (73,709), the current price is between the upper and middle track, the upper track constitutes resistance, and the lower track support is relatively far (short-term reference significance is low).

2. Short-term Trading Strategies

1: Short-sell on rallies (expectation of a short-term pullback)

- Logic: KDJ overbought + high position pullback, betting on short-term decline.
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- Entry point: Near the current price (104,800 - 105,000), or rebound to around 106,000 (testing resistance).
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- Stop-loss level: Set above the upper band or previous high (e.g., 112,000, to avoid the risk of a bullish pullback).
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- Take profit level:
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- First target: 100,000 (integer threshold + early consolidation level);
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- Second target: 95,000 (if there is a strong pullback, a trailing stop loss can be tracked).
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- Position and Leverage: Leverage is recommended at 5-10 times (to control risk), and the position should not exceed 5% of the total funds.

2: Buy on Dips (Speculate on Bullish Rebound)

- Logic: Mid-term moving average support (EMA20) + Bullish trend unbroken, betting on a rebound after the pullback.
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- Entry point: Wait for a pullback to the 98,000 - 100,000 range (confirm with 1-hour/4-hour support).
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- Stop loss level: Set below EMA20 (e.g. 95,000, if broken, the trend weakens).
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- Take profit level:
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- First target: 108,000 (previous high retracement resistance);
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- Second target: 112,000 (previous high breakout level, if broken, stop loss can be moved up).
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- Position and Leverage: Short selling with leverage of 5-10 times, position ≤5%.

3. Core Trading Principles (Mandatory)

1. Strict stop-loss: The lifeline of short-term trading, avoiding uncontrolled losses (single loss suggestion ≤ 2% of total capital).
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2. Light position trial and error: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, leverage amplifies risks, prioritize protecting the principal.
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3. Track the news: Pay attention to policies, institutional trends, macroeconomics (such as the trend of the US dollar), and unexpected news that may disrupt technical patterns.
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4. Refuse to be emotional: KDJ overbought ≠ immediate decline, MACD bullish ≠ sustained rise, need to combine patterns and trading volume for judgment, do not chase highs and sell lows.

4. Risk Warning
- Cryptocurrency contracts are high-risk derivatives, and leverage can amplify both profits and losses. Beginners are advised to start with simulated trading.
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- Short-term trading requires high technical analysis and reaction speed. If strict discipline cannot be maintained, it is recommended to choose trend trading or to wait and watch.

In summary, the current short-term strategy can prioritize betting on a pullback to go short (KDJ overbought + high-level retracement), but one must set stop-losses; if a pullback reaches key support, then consider buying low to go long. Always remember: the essence of trading is risk control! #Gate BTC链上质押收益百分之三 #Alpha 积分节12期开启 #BountyDrop上线 Gate Wallet