#美联储重启降息步伐 Recently, a notable technical signal has emerged in the market—the BWTS divergence phenomenon. Some analysts believe this could be a precursor to a reversal in market sentiment.
First, let’s talk about what exactly BWTS is. Essentially, it’s an indicator that tracks the selling behavior of long-term holders. When positions start to loosen and panic selling concentrates, this value shows significant fluctuations. What’s interesting now is this: the BWTS trend and BTC price have formed a reverse divergence—the price is still grinding at a low level, but panic sentiment is nearing its end. Historical experience tells us that such divergence often signals a short-term bottom is being built.
But let’s stay calm. A signal is just a signal; the market never follows the script.
Here’s my take on how to operate: if the divergence persists for more than a week, you might consider testing with a small position, but never go all-in. Entering in three batches is much more rational than buying all at once. Also, don’t even touch leverage right now; before a trend emerges, surviving is a hundred times more important than making quick money.
At the end of the day, so-called turning points are never called—they’re endured with real money. Protect your principal, or opportunities won’t matter.
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IronHeadMiner
· 21h ago
By the way, this BWTS divergence is indeed quite interesting, but what I care more about is whether the Fed will actually cut rates next. Last time I heard this kind of talk, it ended up flipping again.
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GateUser-1a2ed0b9
· 12-06 12:19
Listen, listen, listen, the BWTS divergence theory sounds nice, but I trust my own instincts more. Around this time last year, people were saying similar things, and what happened? We still got dumped on. The idea of trying with small positions and splitting batches is right, but honestly, anyone daring to bottom fish right now either has top-tier mental strength or isn't thinking clearly.
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RektCoaster
· 12-06 11:28
Divergence signal? Uh... I'll just wait for the price action to speak for itself. Don't get fooled by these indicators.
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SellTheBounce
· 12-06 11:25
Divergence signal? Heh, every time they say this is the bottom, but there’s always a lower point waiting. Small position probing is fine, but don’t really believe anything about the market turning around in a week—the market loves to play people like this.
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AllTalkLongTrader
· 12-06 11:24
Yeah, the signals look good but don't go all-in blindly, everyone.
I've heard the same talk about divergences and bottoms too many times, and in the end, it's still the same group of people taking losses.
I agree with entering in three batches, but the problem is most people can't actually do it—they end up going all-in as soon as there's a rebound.
Seriously, stay away from leverage right now. It's not worth it.
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BlockchainDecoder
· 12-06 11:24
Hmm... I actually have some reservations about the BWTS divergence signal. According to on-chain data research by Glassnode in 2019, the behavior of long-term holders does indeed reflect market sentiment, but a single indicator divergence alone is not enough to provide a strong basis for action. It's worth noting that historically, the success rate of similar signals is only around 50%, so we shouldn't put too much faith in them. From a technical perspective, the idea of building positions in batches is correct, but the key is still how well it aligns with trading volume.
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ExpectationFarmer
· 12-06 11:22
Divergence signals can indeed be confusing, but to be honest, what I care more about is whether this wave can really hold the bottom, instead of another fake breakout playing mind games.
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CountdownToBroke
· 12-06 11:21
Hey, wait a minute, does this BWTS divergence really mean it can save the market? Why does it feel like another "boy who cried wolf" situation to me?
I can accept a small position, but can we really hold on this week? Feels like there might be another black swan event tomorrow.
Going all-in is definitely stupid, but just watching from the sidelines is also uncomfortable.
#美联储重启降息步伐 Recently, a notable technical signal has emerged in the market—the BWTS divergence phenomenon. Some analysts believe this could be a precursor to a reversal in market sentiment.
First, let’s talk about what exactly BWTS is. Essentially, it’s an indicator that tracks the selling behavior of long-term holders. When positions start to loosen and panic selling concentrates, this value shows significant fluctuations. What’s interesting now is this: the BWTS trend and BTC price have formed a reverse divergence—the price is still grinding at a low level, but panic sentiment is nearing its end. Historical experience tells us that such divergence often signals a short-term bottom is being built.
But let’s stay calm. A signal is just a signal; the market never follows the script.
Here’s my take on how to operate: if the divergence persists for more than a week, you might consider testing with a small position, but never go all-in. Entering in three batches is much more rational than buying all at once. Also, don’t even touch leverage right now; before a trend emerges, surviving is a hundred times more important than making quick money.
At the end of the day, so-called turning points are never called—they’re endured with real money. Protect your principal, or opportunities won’t matter.