#美联储重启降息步伐 The market has been guessing for a month, and now the probability of a rate cut has been slashed in half.

The latest data shows that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December has plunged from 95% to 65%—all because of Powell's comment that "there's no need to rush." Right after he said that, the 2-year US Treasury yield soared in a single day, marking the biggest jump in months. Investors instantly panicked, and what seemed like a sure bet for a rate cut is now in total doubt.

The truth is, Powell is under ridiculous pressure. On one hand, inflation data is coming down but still stuck above the 2% target. On the other hand, the job market could stall at any moment. What's even worse, the new administration's tariff policies are like a ticking time bomb—no one knows how or when it might explode. The meeting minutes revealed that officials are already at each other's throats, with a rare "three-way split" vote—something almost never seen in Fed history.

The real drama is yet to come. Next year, with officials rotating and data continuing to fluctuate, the direction of monetary policy will turn into a multi-sided game. Will the hawks or doves come out on top? Could the pace of rate cuts suddenly slam on the brakes? Now everyone is watching the Fed's next move.

To put it bluntly, every time the central bank sneezes, the global market catches a cold. Crypto assets, which are especially sensitive to liquidity, will get tossed around even more by these policy expectations. $LUNC $LUNA Volatility in these types of assets is pretty much inevitable in the short term, so investors should be mentally prepared.