Behind the Surge in UFO's Unveiled Order Book: A Carefully Orchestrated Reverse Arbitrage?

Question

[Bitpush] Yesterday, an interesting market emerged on the prediction platform—a bet on whether Trump will publicly release UFO files in 2025. Within half an hour, the probability shot up from 5% to 71%, and the entire market started buzzing about the possible disclosure of alien files.

Here’s the background. Trump promised to declassify everything during his campaign, and the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act requires the Department of Defense to force disclosure, so someone set up this market.

Looking at on-chain data, the person who triggered the probability spike is a trader named ster. This guy has been buying “Yes” since the market opened, and yesterday, during a period of low liquidity, he swept the order book at market price, causing the probability to soar. However, judging by his trading history, it’s a classic pump-and-dump strategy and doesn’t seem like he actually has insider information.

What’s even more bizarre is what happened on the other side. Within 12 hours after the probability spike, six accounts bought over 20,000 “No” shares at an average price of less than $0.20 apiece—betting that the files won’t be declassified. Here’s the kicker: all six accounts share a common trait—this is their only position on Polymarket.

With such precise timing, consistent pricing, and six brand new accounts entering simultaneously, it’s getting interesting. One possibility is that these people used routine updates on the AARO website as a smokescreen, actively or passively driving up the “Yes” probability, crashing the “No” price to rock bottom, and then buying in cheap. They know full well that AARO’s routine updates don’t meet the market’s resolution criteria, so they’re exploiting this information gap for a reverse arbitrage, waiting for the market to eventually settle as “No” and cash in.

The waters in prediction markets are a lot deeper than they seem.

ChainWanderingPoet · Accepted Answer

Same old trick, ster is just a pump-and-dump guy, nothing insider here.

This project is a mess, a bunch of protocol addresses sweeping orders to pump the price, someone is definitely dumping later.

Six accounts all dumping No at the same time, how coordinated is that? Clearly someone is controlling the rhythm.

UFO files? Wake up, this is just a gambling scheme, Trump is just talking.

These on-chain prediction markets are basically just ways to fleece retail investors, don’t follow the herd.

Projects with poor liquidity are the easiest to manipulate, I’ve seen ster use this method countless times.

FOMOSapien · Answer

Haha, Ster's trick is way too obvious, the classic pump and dump move.

Those 6 accounts taking the opposite position on No, that's real smart.

Damn, got rekt again.

This setup just looks off, waiting to see the next twist.

AirdropHuntress · Answer

A typical wash trading scheme. ster pumps on one side while 6 other accounts take the "No" on the other. The process is just too standard. Data shows that the price surge had no real buying support at all—obviously a fake market.

DecentralizeMe · Answer

Ha, it's the same old trick again—pump the price and then dump on retail investors. I'm already tired of seeing this.

This guy ster's method is a bit clumsy. In half an hour, he pumped it from 5% to 71%. With such poor liquidity, he still dared to do this. Classic case of wanting to exit but failing to do so.

Those six accounts are the real smart ones. Buying over 20,000 No shares at $0.20—basically betting that ster's odds will drop back down. I think their chances of winning are higher.

As for the UFO files, let's be honest—it's just political theater. If Trump really wanted to make them public, he would've done it long ago. Now they're still hyping it up, just giving retail investors a chance to get fleeced.

With on-chain data being this transparent, some people still dare to pump so blatantly. They really don't see retail investors as people.

To be honest, prediction markets like this are basically gambling. Analyzing the data is way more reliable than just reading the news.

WalletAnxietyPatient · Answer

A typical wash trading scheme. STER pumps the price and sells off, while those six accounts behind the scenes had already positioned themselves in advance. I can see through this trick with my eyes closed.

LiquidityNinja · Answer

Same old trick again: pump and dump, with retail investors left holding the bag.

ster’s move is really wild—pushing from 5% to 71% in half an hour, and with poor liquidity, it just takes off.

Those 6 accounts that bought “No” are probably the real winners, picking up at low prices and waiting for ster to sell.

This kind of order book clearly shows someone is manipulating it; all that UFO files stuff is just a smokescreen.

The prediction market is getting pretty complicated now—you have to learn to read on-chain data.

BlockchainRetirementHome · Answer

Same old trick again, pumping and dumping as usual, still trying to fool us retail investors into buying in.