The freshly released US December inflation data is quite interesting—one-year inflation expectations came in at a preliminary value of 4.1%, which totally caught the market off guard compared to the forecast of 4.5%. This is already the lowest point since January this year, and it’s been trending down for four consecutive months. The five-year figure also dropped to 3.2%, so the overall trend is pretty clear.

As soon as this data came out, the market immediately started betting on whether the Fed would ease up. Now, traders are pricing in an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Honestly, that number is already quite convincing.

Personally, I tend to believe that a rate cut will happen, since inflationary pressures really are easing. But on the other hand, you can’t put all your eggs in one basket—if the Fed suddenly decides to “stand pat,” that could be awkward. It never hurts to keep a bit of risk awareness in times like these.

I’d love to hear your thoughts: with all these headlines flying around—some calling it bullish, others warning of risks—are you planning to quietly build positions while uncertainty is low, or are you waiting for a clear signal from the market before making a move?