#数字资产生态回暖 "Economic Alarm Bells and AI Truth: Dalio Reveals Market Vulnerability"

Dalio, the head of Bridgewater Fund, recently released a blockbuster view that the global economy is at risk of crisis in the next 12 to 24 months. But he also emphasized that the high valuation of the AI industry itself is not a selling signal, and the key is to identify the precursors to the real bursting of the bubble.

In an interview with CNBC, Dalio pointed out several major pain points in the current market: debt pressure, political divisions, geopolitical confrontations are intertwined, and private equity, venture capital and the debt market that needs to borrow new to repay the old have all exposed problems. The rising scale of global debt, with the government having no room to raise taxes or move welfare spending, has pushed domestic contradictions to the forefront - populist forces are on the rise, and the confrontation between the left and right wings has intensified.

The timing is critical. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and the political confrontation will become more intense. High interest rates and excessive concentration of market power combine to create a sharp rise in vulnerability.

Dalio compared the current AI valuation bubble with the Internet bubble of 2000, although it is not at the level of 1929, but the risks cannot be ignored. His core advice is not to blindly exit because of high valuations, but to keep an eye on the real signals of a bubble bursting - such as the central bank really starting to loosen or companies that can't get cheap loans being forced to sell their assets. Venture capital, private equity, and commercial real estate are under the greatest pressure now, and it is now difficult to renew the cheap money financed in the era of low interest rates with high interest rates.

However, Dalio also sees a new growth pole. Middle Eastern countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are emerging as new attractions for global capital and talent. These two countries have invested tens of billions of dollars this year in cloud computing, data centers and other AI infrastructure, with Google Cloud, Saudi Public Investment Fund, OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco and other players all deeply involved.

This shift is not accidental, but a long-term result of a national strategy. The Middle East's actions in talent introduction and capital absorption are far beyond imagination, and its status as an AI innovation center is being established. Dalio's logic is actually very clear: you must have a vision when looking at investment, and don't be dazzled by the bubble in front of you.