#美联储货币政策 Recently, US employment data has caught my attention. Several employment-related indicators will be released tonight, including Challenger layoffs and initial jobless claims. These data points could influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Interestingly, despite the absence of official non-farm payroll data, the market has already heavily priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with a probability of up to 94%. This reflects investors' concerns about the economic outlook.

However, I want to remind everyone that a single data point cannot fully determine policy direction. The Federal Reserve considers multiple factors when formulating policies. As long-term investors, we should focus more on the overall economic trend rather than over-interpreting short-term fluctuations.

In this uncertain environment, maintaining a reasonable asset allocation is especially important. You can moderately increase the proportion of defensive assets, but also do not completely abandon growth opportunities. The most crucial thing is to stay calm and rational, adhere to long-term investment principles, and this is the key to navigating cyclical fluctuations.