#我在Gate广场过新年 – Why This Cycle Stands Apart

For those who first entered the crypto market in 2017, the landscape felt boundless with optimism and innovation. Back then, blockchain networks were viewed as transformative tools capable of delivering real-world solutions and fundamentally altering finance, technology, and society. Investors and enthusiasts alike believed in the potential of these protocols to create sustainable utility and long-term value. Yet, nearly a decade later, the reality has proven far more complex. Few ecosystems have realized the promise of mainstream adoption, and for most crypto assets, the industry remains a highly speculative environment where short-term gains often overshadow intrinsic value.
This current cycle has drawn in countless participants, many of whom have seen their expectations unmet. The majority of tokens show minimal or negative performance, revealing the harsh truth: for most crypto projects, the market functions as a high-stakes PVP game. Success depends on leverage, liquidations, and capital rotation rather than the underlying growth of the asset itself. Market forces remain uncompromising history shows that the majority of cryptocurrencies will eventually decline to zero, leaving only a select few high-quality projects, including Bitcoin, with a chance to achieve meaningful breakthroughs in value.
Bitcoin’s trajectory in this cycle presents two stark possibilities: glory or destruction. On the path to glory, Bitcoin could experience a “breakout upgrade,” where volatility contracts sharply, retracement levels remain far below historical highs, and previous peak regions evolve into solid structural support. Even if cycle peak multiples are lower than before, the resulting stability enhances risk-adjusted returns, optimizes the risk-reward balance, and establishes Bitcoin as a truly sustainable long-term investment. Conversely, on the path to destruction, the traditional four-year cycle framework may fail entirely. Volatility may remain elevated while upside potential diminishes, and previous highs no longer serve as support. In such a scenario, the once-reliable market patterns may no longer apply, leaving Bitcoin’s price swings to dictate investor sentiment without historical guidance.
A reset scenario is also plausible, driven by new demand forces capable of redefining Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. Large-scale capital allocation, adoption by sovereign entities, or steady institutional buying could create enduring support levels, breaking the cycle of diminishing returns. Long-term protocol risks, while not immediately pressing, remain important. Quantum resistance and protocol upgrades are critical factors that could affect Bitcoin’s security and credibility. The stability of early Bitcoin holdings, particularly Satoshi’s stash, represents a potential hidden risk, emphasizing that sustainable long-term growth relies on successful protocol evolution without undermining market trust.
Simple judgment metrics illustrate the stakes clearly. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $69,000 after the current shakeout, the cycle structure remains intact, keeping the path to glory viable. Prices ranging between $55,000 and $69,000 indicate maximum market pressure, representing a final test for the cycle framework. Falling below $55,000, however, could trigger structural breakdown, fundamentally altering market dynamics and signaling that the traditional cycle may no longer hold.
Ultimately, Bitcoin cannot simultaneously be a low-gain asset and a high-retracement asset. Long-term, one characteristic must dominate, and current market levels near $60,000 are testing this boundary in real time. Should prices drop beneath $50,000, the debate ends the market will deliver its verdict, confirming whether Bitcoin moves toward sustained glory or faces a structural decline. This cycle, more than any before it, underscores the fragile yet potentially transformative nature of crypto markets, where strategy, timing, and structural integrity determine the ultimate outcome.