Bitcoin in 2026: How the halving and liquidity are redefining the market outlook

With Bitcoin trading around $67,280 at the beginning of March 2026, the market faces a complex outlook marked by multiple macroeconomic forces in tension. According to Jim Ferraioli, Director of Research and Cryptocurrency Strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research, Bitcoin’s behavior this year will depend on how long-term structural factors combine with short-term volatile elements, with the halving cycle being one of the most decisive.

The Ten Factors Shaping the Price: Between Long and Short Term

Ferraioli has identified three structural drivers operating in the medium and long term: the evolution of the global money supply M2, the controlled growth of Bitcoin supply, and its adoption as an asset. These elements define the floor on which the cryptocurrency moves.

In the short term, however, the game is more dynamic. Seven different variables compete to influence daily and weekly movements: market risk sentiment, interest rate trajectories, the strength of the US dollar, seasonal patterns, liquidity injected by central banks, the availability of Bitcoin in large wallets, and the spread of financial contagions.

As 2026 progresses, several of these elements play in favor of the crypto asset. Credit spreads remain compressed, suggesting confidence in the system. Additionally, most speculative derivative positions that amplified volatility at the end of 2025 have already been liquidated.

The 2026 Halving: The Potential Brake on the Bull Run

Here emerges a factor that investors cannot ignore: Bitcoin’s halving cycle. This event, which halves the rewards miners receive approximately every four years, has shown an unsettling historical pattern. The third year of each halving cycle has traditionally been a period of price pressure.

“Since many market participants operate based on this halving cycle theory, their entry and exit decisions can self-amplify this effect,” warns Ferraioli. This psychological and behavioral dynamic could act as a weight on Bitcoin’s appreciation during 2026, limiting returns even in the presence of other positive factors.

Since 2017, Bitcoin has averaged an approximate return of 70% from its annual lows each year. However, Ferraioli anticipates that 2026 will likely close with gains well below that historical average, precisely due to the influence of the halving and reduced euphoria compared to previous cycles.

Tailwinds: Low Rates, Weak Dollar, and Excess Liquidity

Not everything is gloom. Monetary policy is shaping up as a supportive factor for risk assets. “We expect both interest rates and the US dollar to continue a downward trend during 2026,” Ferraioli stated. This combination has historically benefited Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, the end of quantitative easing by central banks and the restart of balance sheet expansion are creating a favorable liquidity environment. A context of greater capital availability in markets often encourages seeking returns in alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Risk sentiment also appears more constructive. “A bullish environment in equity markets should favor cryptocurrencies, considered the quintessential risk asset,” the analyst commented.

Obstacles Ahead: Slowed Adoption and Regulatory Clarity

Despite relative optimism, risks persist. Adoption could slow in the first months of the year, especially among investors frightened by the turbulence at the end of 2025. Ferraioli sees an opportunity for reversal if regulatory clarity improves: “The approval of clear cryptocurrency laws could catalyze adoption among genuine institutional investors.”

Moderate Returns and Lower Correlation: The New Reality for Bitcoin

Although 2026 is projected to be a positive year for Bitcoin, expectations should be calibrated. Returns will likely be well below the historical average of 70%, warns Ferraioli. The halving acts here as a structural limiter of upward movement.

Meanwhile, the analyst anticipates a significant change in Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets. Although it still maintains a substantial correlation with large-cap technology and AI stocks, its link to broader stock indices has been steadily decreasing.

“Bitcoin may be on track to becoming a more independent asset class,” Ferraioli observed, less susceptible to the whims of global macroeconomics and more influenced by its own adoption dynamics and technological cycles. This structural shift could redefine how institutional portfolios incorporate cryptocurrencies in the future.

In conclusion, 2026 presents Bitcoin at a crossroads: driven by liquidity and falling rates, but held back by halving and its historical implications. The likely outcome will be a year of modest but real gains, with increasing independence from traditional markets.