Tom Lee: Stop trying to time the bottom and start looking for opportunities in the decline

As the cryptocurrency market experiences significant volatility, Thomas Lee, Fundstrat’s Chief Investment Officer, sends a clear message to investors: stop obsessing over finding the exact bottom and instead focus on identifying buying opportunities during corrections. During his speech at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference, Tom Lee emphasized that the true strategy lies in recognizing favorable entry zones, not in perfecting market timing.

Why is now the right time to buy?

Fundstrat analysts argue that the current mass sell-off presents attractive opportunities for long-term investors. According to Lee, gold has likely reached its peak for 2026, suggesting that alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could be poised to outperform in the coming months. This outlook contrasts with 2025, when gold significantly outperformed cryptocurrencies.

The current price landscape supports this buy thesis. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,960 after a 2.02% drop in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is trading at $1,950 with a 1.74% correction. Although these figures reflect recent declines, they remain well below all-time highs: BTC hit $126,080 in October 2025 before retreating sharply, and ETH faces technical pressure around the $1,950 zone.

Technical analysis: Ethereum’s “refined base”

Tom Lee references analyses by renowned market technician Tom DeMark to justify his outlook on Ethereum. According to DeMark, ETH may require a brief correction below $1,800 to form what is technically called a “refined base,” a structure that typically precedes stronger, sustained recoveries.

This pattern is not new. Ethereum’s 50% declines since 2018 have historically been followed by vigorous rebounds. Lee notes that the current market shows similarities to these previous accumulation phases, suggesting that patient investors could be positioning themselves at optimal moments for future growth.

Tom Lee’s prediction history: Lessons from market analysis

It’s useful to consider the context of Lee’s previous predictions to calibrate expectations. In August 2025, he forecasted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of that year. The reality was different: BTC hit a high of $126,000 in October before falling to $88,500 by year-end. Later, Lee suggested another all-time high for January 2026, but Bitcoin closed that month at $78,500.

These less accurate forecasts do not invalidate his current approach, which is less of a “call to action with precise timing” and more of a strategic mindset. His core message remains: instead of waiting for perfect bottom confirmation—something nearly impossible to time exactly—investors should consider accumulating positions during market weakness.

Systemic volatility and macroeconomic context

Recent weakness in cryptocurrencies partly stems from broader market dynamics. At the end of January, gold’s market capitalization fluctuated by trillions of dollars in a single day, triggering margin calls that impacted risk assets. This contagion effect illustrates how changes in traditional markets can temporarily destabilize the crypto ecosystem.

However, for Lee, this kind of turbulence is precisely when opportunities emerge. Investors who maintain confidence in the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum can take advantage of lower prices to strengthen their positions, rather than being shaken by short-term volatility.