Brothers, the current market situation is really exciting! BTC has returned to the critical level of 69,000 and is repeatedly testing it, with both bulls and bears almost banging their heads! The situation in Iran suddenly escalated outside, the Trump administration got called out, and the Strait of Hormuz might have big trouble! Tonight, the US CPI data will be released again. With these two heavy news events hitting simultaneously, the 4-hour chart is already tense. What should we do next?

[Image] News:
Just broke the big news! The Trump administration severely misjudged the Iran situation, and after the attack, they surprisingly have “no response plan,” and they don’t even know how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz! This area is a major artery for global oil transportation. Once it’s completely disrupted, oil prices will definitely soar, and inflation expectations will be pushed to the max! Even more critical, at 20:30 tonight, the US February CPI data will be released. The expectation is 2.4%, unchanged from the previous value, but non-farm payrolls have already been weaker than expected. If CPI spikes again, the dollar will instantly strengthen, and risk assets will be the first to suffer!

Summary view: The news environment is now a “minefield”! Rising oil prices due to the Iran situation are bearish, but if CPI data is below expectations, it could actually be bullish for risk assets. Both bulls and bears are waiting for tonight’s 8:30 release. Before the dust settles, the main players will definitely shake out positions repeatedly. Don’t gamble heavily on the direction!

[Technical Analysis]:
BTC is currently struggling around 69,638. The strong resistance is at 74,000, and support is at 65,000! The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 68,456, and the bands are still contracting, indicating an upcoming trend change! The MFI money flow index has surged to 74.73, approaching overbought territory, indicating capital is pushing hard. But if it can’t break through this level, profit-taking will cause a waterfall decline! The key level is the psychological barrier at 69,000. If it can’t hold, it will head straight to the support level!

Technical summary: The 4-hour oscillation is narrowing, and a trend reversal signal is very strong! Although the MFI is high, it hasn’t formed a death cross yet. There’s still momentum for a short-term surge, but if tonight’s data can’t push it up, it’s a trap for false breakout!

Trading strategy: Keep a close eye on the 69,000 bulls-bears dividing line! If it can’t hold, wait and see for support to stabilize below; if it can hold above 69,000 and CPI data cooperates, a short-term rebound is possible. But the upside is limited, take profits when it looks good! Control your position before 8:30 tonight, don’t get caught in a double whammy of bulls and bears! Where exactly to enter and where to set stop-loss for maximum safety?

Personal opinion: During such a news-intensive node, technical analysis can only serve as a reference. There’s likely to be fierce competition around 69,000, but the real direction will only become clear after the CPI data is released. I personally lean towards the idea that if it drops sharply to support, that might be an opportunity; if it surges sharply, be cautious—it could be a trap. In this kind of market, survival is more important than making money!

If you always feel like the market is one step behind, always “buying when it falls and selling when it rises,” I’ll tell you, it’s not a lack of analysis, but a lack of a professional guide who can remind you in real-time “opportunity is here” and “run now”! #BTC