Although the temperature has dropped in the past two days, the atmosphere in the dynamic seems to have improved a lot. With coins in hand and plans in mind, everyone should feel more secure.

After browsing the news in the currency circle, most of the short-term negative news has been released, except for Microsoft not holding BTC assets and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. I can't think of any other negative factors that could affect short-term trends. Coincidentally, I saw a blogger's dynamic saying that this bull market has ended, and it has already peaked. Within six months, it will drop back to 25,000. I really can't help but laugh. The bull market has not ended yet! We haven't seen Chuan Jianguo's formal performance yet! I really don't understand why it is so pessimistic!
Instead, in the next period, a series of positive events will occur. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this month has reached 80%, and there is also the decision on whether MSTR stocks will be included in the Nasdaq 100 at 5 am on the 14th. The market predicts a probability of 80-90% for this, which is also a positive development.
In addition, the inflow of ETH spot ETF has reached a new high. As we all know, ETH is the foundation of most altcoins. With the explosion of ETH price, it can bring about the explosion of most altcoins. If you have been paying attention to news or on-chain data, you will notice that the inflow of ETH funds has been increasing recently, and large investors and institutions are also following suit. Both from the fundamentals and technical patterns, it can be clearly predicted that the time for ETH to break through its historical high should not be far away. It should be difficult to buy ETH below 4K after January.
A friend asked in a dynamic message, will it fall again? I can't answer your question. At present, it is in the process of oscillating and washing chips. In the stage trend of the crazy bull attack, every fall is an opportunity to increase positions, and every fall will have a healthy impact on the market. For this kind of decline, we should maintain an optimistic and happy attitude to welcome it, instead of being afraid, or hoping for a further decline.
When the time comes here, why not predict the top of this round of BTC and ETH? I actually released it very early: BTC: 13-15W, ETH: 8K-1W. According to the current known information and technical form, this should be considered the most conservative prediction. Of course, this is only the personal opinion of amateur players like us. Professional level traders will not predict the top, but I will indeed make trading plans based on this expected value.
I know some friends are paying attention to the gap in the BTC contract K-line near 78K, and they are worried that the market will suddenly plunge. If BTC crashes and triggers a overall altcoin crash, they are waiting for this moment with bullets in hand. Will it happen? According to the current situation, the probability is low. If you firmly believe that the market will continue to rise and break through the previous high, then from a speculative or profit perspective, this is obviously a trading with a low investment return rate, because you will miss more opportunities to layout chips at this stage. This situation is similar to when a friend asked me if it was possible to buy Dogecoin at 0.3, the idea is good, but the probability is very low.
Time is an extremely important factor in trading, and we must be clear about the stage of the market we are in. Looking back at the dynamics from November until now, I should objectively express my views on the market, including the choice of coins to buy, the choice of the track, the position ratio, and the timing of buying and selling. For friends with different experiences, I also recommended some portfolio combinations. Among them, the two numbers I mentioned multiple times left a deep impression on me.
20%, 30%, these two numbers may seem ordinary, but for most altcoins, if you can keep in mind these two numbers and can clearly distinguish the time points when these two numbers appear, whether it is the medium-term, long-term or short-term, you are likely to achieve decent returns.
What do these two numbers mean? As mentioned in the update on December 4th, this is the percentage of retracement after the appearance of a phase high. Based on past experience, most altcoins often experience huge fluctuations during the uptrend. The larger the market value, the relatively smaller the fluctuation and the longer the time period; the smaller the market value, the relatively smaller the fluctuation and the shorter the time period. This is a typical way of washing chips, causing unbearable shocks, rapid ups and downs, with the purpose of making you surrender your chips for better selling at a later stage.
Taking ADA as an example, the high point was 1.15 on November 23rd and the low point was 0.88 on November 26th, with a retracement rate of 24.08%. I would choose to place an order for pickup around 20%. On December 3rd, the high point was 1.32 and the low point was 0.89 on December 10th, with a retracement rate of 32.4%. I would choose to place an order for pickup around 30%.
So why are you so sure there will be such a pullback? If you are willing to spend time studying your currency, or studying the same stage K-line of the past bull market, especially the K-line during the BTC and ETH surge period, including the hourly line, 4-hour, daily line, you will understand many ways, K-line watched for a long time, muscle memory will eventually develop, and the so-called market sense will appear.
You may wonder, that's not right, the price difference for receiving goods is quite large. You have to remember that this is just a simple method to quickly determine the position where the pullback can receive goods, so that you have a psychological expectation and can easily deal with possible market situations. For more professional technical calculations, you also need to look at indicators and Fibonacci support levels. And you have to remember, no one can continuously be 100% certain about an accurate number or range. If someone does, they are not human, they are a charlatan.
Is this value constant? No, these are just numbers that frequently appear with a high probability. There is also 40%, which represents the market of low-cap coins, and 50%, which is caused by black swan events. These situations are relatively rare. The famous ones are the super earthquakes like 312 and 519... I won't go into detail here. It is important to note that these numbers represent different meanings at different time points. If there are 3-4 significant retracements during the upward phase, and then it continues to break through the historical high, if the next retracement drops by 20-30%, if you rush in again, it may take 3 to 4 years to get out of the situation. Different currencies have different characteristics. It doesn't hurt to study them more carefully.
In short, you need to be familiar with your currency. If you are fully loaded, it's best to take a look at the historical K-line and think about how to exit, when to exit, and at what price to exit. It's also good to think from the perspective of Zhuang's operation. How can you manipulate more people? What conditions are needed? What atmosphere is needed? What price is needed? The more you think, the more you write down, the more confident you can be, the greater the harvest next year.
Experience tells me that your efforts will be proportional to your rewards ☕