Bitcoin is in deep crisis? The collapse of U.S. stocks intensified the panic, and $78,000 became a life and death line!

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🔥 The current state of the market: Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are both under pressure!
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🔹 Bitcoin fell to $78,000, approaching the Arthur Hayes support level, and a break below it could accelerate the bottom to $75,000.
🔹 U.S. stocks plummeted, technology stocks plummeted, the Nasdaq fell more than 10%, market panic soared, and risk assets suffered at the same time.
🔹 The fear index fell to 20 (extreme panic) and the market was oversold, but there may be a chance of a technical rebound in the short term.
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📉 Core bearish: Why does Bitcoin continue to fall?
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1️⃣ Fed Policy & Macro Risk
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📌 The CPI data is about to be released (expected 2.9%), and if inflation exceeds expectations, the market may usher in a panic of interest rate hikes, and funds flee from risky assets.
📌 Recession clouds: Demand for bitcoin is dampened by U.S. government spending cuts, uncertain tariffs, and an influx of dollars and Treasuries.
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2️⃣ Financial and technical pressure
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📌 Leveraged bulls were bloodbathed: $580 million was liquidated within 24 hours, and the bears controlled the situation.
📌 ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks (cumulative -$409.2 million), institutional funds have withdrawn, and Bitcoin has lost significant support.
📌 Break below key support level: $82,000 is broken, $78,000 becomes the line of life and death, if it falls below or goes straight to $75,000.
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3️⃣ Regulatory Storm & Policy Uncertainty
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📌 Trump's release of bitcoin is still in doubt, the policy lacks actual implementation, and market expectations are frustrated.
📌 The Department of Justice may sell off bitcoin, and rumors have heightened panic and further hit market confidence.
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📊 Market Prediction: Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?
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🚨 Short-term trend: downside risk is high, if $78,000 fails, it may approach $75,000; If short-covering or CPI is positive, there may be a short-term rebound.
📈 Potential rally triggers:
✅ CPI came in lower than expected, easing concerns about interest rate hikes
✅ The Trump team releases a clearer crypto policy
✅ Institutional funds repatriated
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📉 U.S. stock linkage risk: The Nasdaq has not stopped falling, if U.S. stocks continue to plummet, Bitcoin may fall sharply; If U.S. stocks stabilize, Bitcoin is expected to rebound in the short term.
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🚀 Operational Strategy: How to Deal with Extreme Markets?
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🔻 Short Strategy:
• In the range of $8.0-$82,000, you can consider shorting in batches and stop loss above $85,000.
• A break below $78,000 could be bearish to $75,000.
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🔹 Long Strategy:
• Observe the stabilization signal of $78,000, if the shrinkage shock + the fear index rebounds, you can try to buy low with a light position, and strictly stop loss below $75,000.
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⏳ Wait-and-see strategy:
• Keep an eye on this week's CPI data and wait for the market direction to become clear.
• Pay attention to the dynamics of MicroStrategy and other institutions to increase their holdings and look for bottom signals.
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⚠️ Risk Warning: The market may be volatile!
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⚠ Extreme market: Panic is extreme, and there may be a "pin-and-needle" plunge + a rapid rebound.
⚠ Policy black swan: Regulatory uncertainty remains, and rumors of the DOJ selling bitcoin need to be tracked.
⚠ Liquidity crisis: If the depth of the market plummets, you need to be wary of price manipulation and flash crash risks.
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🔍 Conclusion: Bitcoin is still bearish in the short term, waiting for the opportunity after the release of emotions!
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🎯 $78,000 is a key battlefield for bulls and bears, and if it fails, it may face a deeper correction, and $75,000 is the lower support.
🎯 The trend of U.S. stocks may determine the short-term fate of Bitcoin, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the performance of technology stocks and CPI data.
🎯 Focus on short-term defense, wait patiently for the market to stabilize signals, and don't blindly buy the bottom!
- Follow the money wind and understand the most real currency market
💡 What's your next trading plan? Welcome to discuss in the comment area!
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