Analyst: Multiple signs indicate that $76,600 is the final low of this BTC pullback

BlockBeats news, on March 12th, according to Cointelegraph, analyst Marcel Pechman stated that, influenced by the Derivatives market, a weak USD, and the contagion effect of the US budget crisis, the current pullback of BTC may have already ended. On March 11th, the BTC price dropped to a 4-month low of $76,700, while the S&P 500 index fell by 6% in a week. The stock market correction pushed the index to its lowest level in six months, with investors expecting an increased possibility of a global economic recession. Despite BTC's 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,350, several key indicators suggest that this correction may have ended. Some analysts believe that BTC has entered a Bear Market. However, the current price action is significantly different from the crash in November 2021, when BTC dropped from $69,000 to $40,560 in 60 days. The current correction is more similar to the mid-term pullback from $71,940 on June 7, 2024, to $49,220 60 days later, a 31.5% drop. In the early stages of the Bear Market at the end of 2021, the USD strengthened against a basket of foreign currencies, reflected in the DXY index, which rose from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021. However, the DXY was at 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 and has since dropped to 104. Traders believe that BTC is negatively correlated with the DXY index because it is primarily seen as a risky asset rather than a safe haven when the USD is weak. Overall, the current market conditions do not show signs of investors moving towards cash positions, which supports the price of BTC. The Derivatives market for BTC remains stable, with the current annualized premium for futures still at 4.5% despite the price drop. Compared to this time, after the BTC price crash on June 18, 2022, the future annualized premium dropped below 0%. Similarly, the funding Intrerest Rate for BTC perpetual futures is close to zero, indicating a balance in demand for leverage from both long and short positions. Under Bear Market conditions, there is usually an excessive demand for short positions, pushing the funding Intrerest Rate below zero. Essentially, BTC's return to the $90,000 path is due to a weak USD, historical data showing that a 30% price pullback does not necessarily indicate a Bear Market, and BTC and its Derivatives market still showing resilience.