Messari: BTC may reach $1 million, but you need to go through a severe Bear Market first

Author: mikeykremer, Researcher at Messari

Compilation: ChatGPT

Let's take a look:

• Globalization is over, and your financial assets have been liquidated.
• Non-traditional assets are your redemption.
• Bitcoin may reach one million US dollars.

From the outbreak of World War II (1939) to Trump's second election victory (2024), we have experienced an unprecedented super bull market. This sustained rise has shaped generation after generation of passive investors, who habitually believe that "the market will never have a problem" and "the market will only rise." However, I believe this feast is over, and many people are about to face liquidation.

How did we get to this point?

The super bull market from 1939 to 2024 is not accidental, but is due to a series of structural changes that have completely reshaped the global economy, with the United States always at the center.

Rise to a global superpower after World War II

The Second World War propelled the United States from a middle-ranking power to an undisputed leader of the 'free world'. By 1945, the U.S. produced over half of the world's industrial goods, controlled one third of global exports, and held approximately two thirds of the world's gold reserves. This economic dominance laid the foundation for growth in the following decades.

Unlike the isolationism of the United States after World War I, the United States actively embraced the role of global leader after World War II, promoted the establishment of the United Nations, and implemented the Marshall Plan, injecting over $13 billion into Western Europe. This was not just mere assistance—by investing in the reconstruction of post-war countries, the United States created new markets for its own products, while also establishing its dominant position in culture and economy.

Labor Force Expansion: Women and Minority Ethnic Groups

During World War II, about 6.7 million women entered the labor force, increasing the female labor participation rate by nearly 50% in just a few years. Although many women left their jobs after the war, this large-scale mobilization permanently changed society's perception of women's employment.

By 1950, the large-scale trend of married women's employment became increasingly apparent, with labor participation rates for women in most age groups increasing by an unprecedented 10 percentage points. This was not just a wartime exception, but the starting point of a fundamental shift in the American economic model. The 'marriage bar' (policies prohibiting married women from working) was abolished, part-time work increased, household labor techniques were innovated, and higher levels of education all contributed to the transition of women from temporary workers to long-term participants in the economic system.

A similar trend is also happening among minority ethnic groups, who are gradually gaining more economic opportunities. This expansion of the workforce has effectively increased America's production capacity and supported decades of economic growth.

Cold War Victory and the Wave of Globalization

The Cold War shaped the political and economic role of the United States after World War II. By 1989, the United States had formed military alliances with 50 countries and stationed 1.5 million troops in 117 countries worldwide. This was not only for military security, but also to establish America's economic influence globally.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States became the world's sole superpower, entering an era that many saw as unipolar. This was not only a victory of ideology, but also the opening of global markets, allowing the United States to dominate the global trade pattern.

In the 1990s to the early 21st century, American companies expanded massively into emerging markets. This was not a natural evolution, but rather the result of long-term policy choices. For example, in countries where the CIA intervened during the Cold War, the amount of imports into the United States increased significantly, especially in industries where the United States had no apparent competitive advantage.

Western capitalism defeated Eastern communism not only by military or ideological advantages. The Western liberal democratic system is more adaptable and was able to effectively adjust its economic structure after the 1973 oil crisis. The 'Volcker Shock' in 1979 reshaped the global financial dominance of the United States, making the global capital market a new engine for American growth in the post-industrial era.

These structural transformations - the rise of superpowers after World War II, the entry of women and minorities into the labor market, and the victory of the Cold War - have together driven this unprecedented bull market in financial assets. However, the core issue is that these transformations are all one-time events and cannot be repeated. You cannot bring women back into the labor market, and you cannot defeat the Soviet Union again. And now, both parties are pushing for deglobalization, and we are witnessing the last support of this super-long cycle of growth being withdrawn.

What will happen next?

I like Tom, he is my TradFi sentiment indicator in the Crypto circle

However, unfortunately, everyone is praying for the market to return to normal. The market consensus is: things will get worse, then the central bank will loosen monetary policy again, and then we can continue to make money... But the reality is: these people are heading for the slaughterhouse.

A bull market of nearly a century is built on a series of unreproducible events (unable to continue the bull market), and some of these factors are even reversing.

Chumba is right on this point**​**

• Women will not re-enter the labor market on a large scale: In fact, with Musk and the pro-natalist elite advocating for higher birth rates, the female labor participation rate may fall back.
• Ethnic minorities will not be absorbed into the labor market in large numbers again: In fact, the Democratic Party's stance on immigration policy is almost as tough as the Republican Party's, which has become a bipartisan consensus.
• Interest rates will not fall again: In fact, every democratically elected leader knows very well that inflation is the biggest threat to their reelection. Therefore, governments around the world will make every effort to avoid cutting interest rates and reigniting inflation.
• We will not further globalize: in fact, Trump is pushing in the completely opposite direction. And I expect the Democratic Party to replicate this policy in the next election (don't forget, most of Biden's policies are directly copied from Trump's first term policies).
• We will not win another world war: in fact, it seems we may even lose the next war. Anyway, I don't want to verify this conjecture.

My point of view is very simple: all the global macro trends that have driven the stock market up over the past century are now reversing. How do you think the market will go?

Goblin Town

When an empire enters decline, life really becomes difficult - just ask Japan. If you bought at the historical peak of the Nikkei 225 index in 1989 and held until now, 36 years have passed, and your return is approximately -5%. This is a typical case of 'buy and hold, endless pain.' I believe we are walking on the same path.

Even worse, you should be prepared for capital controls and financial repression policies. The market not going up does not mean the government will accept reality. When traditional monetary policies fail, the government will resort to more direct financial control measures.

Upcoming Capital Controls

Financial repression refers to allowing savers to obtain returns lower than the inflation level, so that banks can provide cheap loans to businesses and governments, and reduce the pressure of debt repayment. This strategy is particularly effective in government currency debt settlement. In 1973, economists at Stanford University first used this term to criticize the policies that suppress economic growth in emerging market countries, but now these strategies are increasingly appearing in developed economies such as the United States.

This may sound like a joke, but you should seriously think about why the K-line chart of Monero looks so perfect now.

With the U.S. debt burden exceeding 120% of GDP, the possibility of repaying debt through traditional means is decreasing. The playbook of financial repression has begun to be implemented or tested, including:

• Direct or indirect constraints on government debt and deposit rates
• The government controls financial institutions and establishes barriers to competition
• High reserve requirement
• Create a closed domestic debt market, forcing institutions to purchase government bonds
• Capital controls, restricting the cross-border flow of assets

This is not a theoretical hypothesis, but a real-life example. Since 2010, the Federal Funds Rate in the United States has been lower than the inflation rate for over 80% of the time, effectively transferring wealth from savers to borrowers (including the government).

Your retirement account: the government's next target

If the government cannot rely on printing money to buy bonds, lower interest rates to avoid a debt crisis, they will target your retirement account. I can totally imagine a future: 401(k) and other tax-advantaged accounts will be forced to allocate more and more 'safe and reliable' government bonds. The government no longer needs to print money, just directly divert existing funds in the system.

This is the script we've seen in the past few years: ###

• Freezing Assets: In April 2024, Biden signed a law authorizing the government to seize Russia's reserve assets in the United States, setting a precedent for the government to freeze foreign exchange reserves at any time. In the future, this practice may not only target geopolitical adversaries.
• Canadian Freedom Convoy protest incident: The government froze about 280 bank accounts without court approval. Finance officials admit that this is not only to cut off the flow of funds but also to "deter" demonstrators and ensure they "make the decision to leave." When asked how freezing accounts affects innocent families, the government's response is: "They just need to leave."

Gold Requisition and Monitoring

This is not surprising, the history of the United States is full of similar actions:

In 1933, Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, which required citizens to surrender gold or face imprisonment. Despite limited enforcement, the Supreme Court supported the government's power to confiscate gold. This was not a "voluntary purchase program," but rather a "forced wealth confiscation" disguised as "fair market value" transactions.

Government surveillance capabilities expanded rapidly after the 911 incident. The FISA Amendments Act granted the NSA almost unlimited powers to monitor the international communications of American citizens. The Patriot Act allowed the government to collect the phone records of all Americans on a daily basis. Section 215 even allows the government to collect your reading records, educational materials, purchase history, medical records, and personal financial information without any reasonable suspicion.

The issue is not whether "financial repression will come", but how serious it will be. As the economic pressure of deglobalization intensifies, government control over capital will only become more direct and severe.

( Gold and Bitcoin

The gold monthly chart since 1970 is currently the strongest K-line chart in the world.

![Messari: Bitcoin may reach $1 million, but you need to go through a severe bear market])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-04a38f1d7d18fd658832cb1704dbdd65###

Based on the process of elimination, the most suitable financial assets to purchase have become evident — You need an asset that has no historical correlation with the market, is difficult to be confiscated by the government, and is not controlled by Western governments. I can think of two, one of which has increased its market value by $60 trillion in the past 12 months. This is the most obvious bull market signal.

(# Global Gold Reserves Competition

Countries such as China, Russia, and India are rapidly increasing their gold reserves to respond to changes in the global economic landscape:

• China: Increased gold holdings by 5 tons in January 2025, net buying for three consecutive months, with a total holding of 2,285 tons.
• Russia: Controls 2,335.85 tons of gold, becoming the fifth largest gold reserve country in the world.
• India: ranked eighth globally, holding 853.63 tons, and continuing to increase its holdings.

![Messari: Bitcoin may reach $1 million, but you need to go through a severe bear market])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-d18de885ceea13a6dd9d345e9b274ace###

This is not a random act, but a strategic layout. After the G7 froze Russia's foreign exchange reserves, central banks worldwide took notice. A survey of 57 central banks showed that 96% of respondents consider the reputation of gold as a safe-haven asset as a motivation to continue investing. When assets denominated in US dollars can be offset by a freeze, physical gold held domestically becomes highly attractive.

In 2024 alone, Turkey increased its gold reserves by 74.79 tons, an increase of 13.85%. Poland's gold reserves increased by 89.54 tons, nearly 25%. Even small countries like Uzbekistan increased their gold reserves by 8 tons in January 2025, bringing their gold holdings to 391 tons, accounting for 82% of their foreign exchange reserves. This is not a coincidence, but a coordinated effort to break free from potentially weaponized financial systems.

Governments around the world are most confident in gold, as they have established a system for using gold for reserves and trade settlement. The total gold holdings of the central banks of BRICS countries account for more than 20% of the global central bank gold holdings. As the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan stated in January 2025, they are transitioning to a "currency-neutral gold reserve," with the goal of increasing international reserves and "protecting the economy from external shocks."

(# Bitcoin

This gold-dominated era may last for several months or even years, but eventually, its limitations will become apparent. Many small and medium-sized countries do not have sufficient banking systems and navies to manage the global logistics of gold, and these countries may be among the first to adopt Bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

![Messari: Bitcoin could hit $1 million, but you need to go through a severe bear market])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-d6d6c61641d8e83ea1ce6b464e8f8b86

• El Salvador: In 2021, it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender (later announced to be canceled). By 2025, its Bitcoin reserves had grown to over 550 million U.S. dollars.
• Bhutan: Mining with hydropower, Bitcoin reserves have exceeded $1 billion, accounting for one-third of the country's GDP.

As the world becomes more chaotic, it is less likely that countries will entrust gold to allies. The risk of confiscation is too great, as evidenced by Venezuela's failed attempt to retrieve gold from the Bank of England. For smaller countries, Bitcoin provides a compelling alternative—it can be stored without physical vaults, transferred without ships, and protected without armies.

This transitional period will propel us into the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, but you must remain patient. The world will not change overnight, and neither will the monetary system. By 2025, we have already seen the beginning of this shift, with increasing Bitcoin adoption rates in countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Vietnam as people seek protection against inflation and financial instability.

The path forward is clear: first gold, then Bitcoin. As more and more countries realize the limitations of physical gold in an increasingly digital and fragmented world, the proposal of Bitcoin as digital gold becomes more prominent. The question is not whether this shift will happen, but when—and which countries will lead the way.

100 million dollars of Bitcoin is coming soon, but you must be patient. Get ready to face a severe bear market first.