Is the crypto world still concerned about Trump's tariff policy? Has the story of 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' desensitized the crypto world?

When chatting with many OGs, they all lamented the unpredictable market changes in the 24/25 years, and many veterans couldn't make money. One interesting point is that 17/18 was a 'community-driven market,' where a new asset issuance paradigm created a wealth effect; 20/21 is a 'technology-driven market,' where new asset plays (Decentralized Finance/Non-fungible Token) created a wealth effect; 24/25 is a 'policy-driven market' (some also call this 'policy bull,' hahaha), where market changes depend on policy changes.

This article mainly focuses on recent policy-driven events, or rather, the impact of policy-related public information on coin prices (mainly discussing the magnitude), as for the memes posted by Trump and his wife, they do not fall into this category.

Before this, there is a very important assumption, that people will become numb to the continuous appearance of signals (reasons include being worn down/monitored by various strategies, people's perception becomes dull, etc.). Just like if you can face the sea every day, over time, your excitement at seeing the sea will decrease, even becoming accustomed to it (economically, this is the law of diminishing marginal utility)

After the ETF in 2024, in addition to the traditional exchange funds rate, lending rate, volatility, k-line and other technical indicators, the market will also consider the net inflow/outflow data of ETFs on the following day as an important reference indicator for today's price trend. If the net inflow/outflow data of ETFs is viewed as public information, how does the market perceive this data? And will this data significantly affect the price?

Taking ETH as an example, the price of ETH is positively correlated with the inflow/outflow of ETFs (if there is net inflow the previous day, the probability of price increase the next day is higher, and vice versa)

Does the cryptocurrency circle still care about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' gradually desensitized the cryptocurrency circle?(https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-c81f3148d46604e5206b1f8b0c0eed96)

The correlation between the price trend of BTC and the net inflow/outflow of ETFs is not so obvious, especially after Trump's victory in November, the predictive correlation of this part of the trend gradually weakens.


Given that data is more intuitive and readable, this article does not show regression analysis. Overall, the market's sensitivity to public market information (referring to this intuitive market information) will gradually decrease, but this does not mean that this information is invalid.

Below is a summary of Trump's recent remarks (tweets) on tariffs:

On February 1, 2025: Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a lower 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada. The tariff will take effect on February 4, 2025.

February 13, 2025: Trump announced a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum products, scheduled to take effect on March 12, 2025. A 'reciprocal' tariff will be imposed on all foreign imports starting from April 2, 2025.

March 4, 2025: The tariffs previously announced by Trump against Canada and Mexico officially took effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time in the United States.

March 7, 2025: Trump announced new tariffs on Canadian dairy products and lumber, expected to take effect on March 11, 2025. (This day also marks the White House Crypto Summit)

March 11, 2025: Trump announced that he would impose an additional 25% tariff (up to 50%) on steel and aluminum from Canada, expected to take effect on March 12. In addition, Trump also demanded that Canada withdraw tariffs on American dairy products.

Directly upload data:

Does the currency circle still care about Trump's tariff policy? Has the story of 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' desensitized the currency circle?

Note: Some believe that the drop on March 7 may still be related to the market's excessively high expectations for 'Bitcoin reserves'.

As the saying goes, one, then again, and again, until exhausted. Combining the price fluctuations of BTC and ETH at these time points. From the data, it can be seen that the reactions to the first (February 1) and the third (March 4) tariff topics were the most significant, while the reactions to the second (February 13) and the fourth (March 7) were relatively minor. Even the fifth time (March 11) has seen some increase, but does this mean that the market has become desensitized to Trump's 'tariff tricks'?

Analysis of the inflow/outflow of ETFs:

![Is the currency circle still concerned about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of 'the wolf is coming' gradually desensitized the currency circle?])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-2955031ce58bf69f3a157e29ffa88aa0(

As early as before March 1st, BTC ETFs had already experienced massive outflows, speculating that it was for hedging or exiting, so traders who are bearish on the market or resistant to tariff fluctuations have gradually left, which may explain why existing ETF holders are less likely to be affected by the tariff issue. After all, those who wanted to withdraw have already left.

Then there is the analysis of March 4th and 7th. Although the tariff imposition on March 4th was within the market expectations (Trump mentioned in February that there would be a round of tariff sanctions in early March), the market's reaction was more intense due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, especially the trend of BTC was even greater than the fluctuation on February 1st. The tariff remarks on March 7th also had an impact, but on the same day, it was also the day of the Bitcoin summit and the landing of the strategic reserve news, where the market's expectations were greater than the actual policy.

Just as people living by the river may ignore the sound of water, people may feel numb and indifferent to continuous long-term information. However, the issue of Trump's tariffs has not reached the threshold of continuous long-term exposure. The reaction on March 11th may be a superficial manifestation of 'desensitization,' but the deeper reason is more likely due to the withdrawal of safe-haven funds, leaving behind traders who have already 'priced in' the 'tariffs'.

The market is not numb and desensitized, it is all carefully calculated risks.

So do you still care about what Trump said?