Tonight at 20:30, the highly anticipated February CPI data from the United States is about to be released, which will undoubtedly become the focus of the financial markets. Various market participants are closely following this data, as it plays a crucial guiding role in the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Based on the current market expectations, there is a possibility that the inflation data may be slightly higher than expected. If this is the case, it will further delay the timeline for the Fed to cut interest rates. Even if the inflation data eventually remains flat or below expectations, the Fed is highly likely to postpone the rate cut until the second half of the year. According to the forecast of FOMC Interest Rate probabilities, the possibility of a rate cut in March has been completely ruled out. Currently, the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in May is 45%, while the probability for a rate cut in June is as high as 93%. This clearly indicates that there is a Consensus in the market that the Fed will not take action easily in the short term, and the rate cut is highly likely to be delayed until the middle of the year. If the CPI data announced this week performs well and funding issues are successfully resolved by March 15th, the probability of a rate cut in May is expected to increase further. Against the backdrop of a recent sharp decline in the stock market, market sentiment is currently in a low ebb, and investors are eagerly waiting for a Rebound trend to alleviate the prevailing pessimism. From a personal perspective, if the CPI data can reach 2.9%, it would be an ideal outcome, highly likely to trigger a market Rebound. After all, the market urgently needs a positive signal to rebuild confidence after a recent streak of continuous declines. Sincerely hope that this data will bring some positive impact and inject new vitality into the market.

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Despite the continuous pullback in the price of Bitcoin, it is worth noting that in the past 30 days, whale investors have accumulated over 65,000 bitcoins. While this accumulation does not necessarily have a direct and immediate impact on the short-term price of Bitcoin, it fully demonstrates that influential participants in the market have started to take action. However, it should be pointed out that compared to the over 1 million bitcoins sold by long-term holders near the high point of $100,000, the current accumulation of 65,000 bitcoins by whales is relatively small. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed the approval process for multiple spot ETFs. The SEC has postponed the approval of VanEck Spot Solana ETF, Canary Spot Litecoin ETF, Canary Spot Solana ETF, CANARY Spot XRP ETF, Grayscale Spot XRP ETF, and Grayscale Spot Dogecoin ETF. Taking into account the above situations, the current market rebound is likely to be only a temporary rebound, and the possibility of a trend reversal is relatively low. It is still necessary to closely follow the gradual warming of market sentiment and the breakthrough in trading volume at key resistance levels.