Introduction

VineCoin (VINE) is a meme token based on the Solana blockchain, launched on January 23, 2025, by Rus Yusupov, co-founder of the popular short-video platform Vine. The token was created to show support for Vine and its legacy, and it gained significant attention due to rumors about Elon Musk potentially reviving the Vine platform.

Background

Vine was a short video platform launched in 2012 by co-founders Dom Hofmann, Rus Yusupov, and Colin Kroll. The platform allowed users to create and share videos lasting up to 6 seconds. With its innovative video format and social sharing features, Vine quickly gained popularity worldwide and was acquired by Twitter (now X) in October 2012. However, the platform struggled to maintain its competitive advantage due to challenges around monetization for content creators and issues with its algorithmic recommendations. At the same time, Twitter underwent significant restructuring in 2016, and Vine was eventually shut down in 2017.

Despite its closure, Vine’s influence in the short video space has not faded. After acquiring Twitter, Elon Musk publicly discussed possibly bringing Vine back multiple times. In October 2022, Musk ran a poll on X asking users if they wanted Vine revived. The results showed that 69.6% of users supported the idea. Following this, Musk instructed Twitter’s engineering team to work on a Vine relaunch, with plans to revive the platform by the end of 2022. However, these plans were never realized.

In April 2024, Musk launched another poll on X asking whether users still wanted Vine to return. While the poll results again showed strong support, there was no official move to bring Vine back. Meanwhile, a meme coin named after Vine appeared on Ethereum and gained some attention in the market, but it was not endorsed by Musk or the original Vine team.

The challenges TikTok has faced in the U.S. also played a role in driving interest in Vine’s potential revival. TikTok has dominated the U.S. market, especially among younger audiences. However, increasing regulatory pressure on TikTok and the threat of a nationwide ban have made the idea of a Vine comeback more appealing. While Vine’s short video format and social features are similar to TikTok’s, its status as an American company could provide more favorable policy support. If Vine can leverage Musk’s influence and integrate with resources from X, it could quickly gain support from users and fill the potential gap in the U.S. market left by TikTok.

In this context, on January 23, 2025, Rus Yusupov, co-founder of Vine, announced the launch of VINECOIN. Although Rus is no longer directly involved with Vine’s original platform, the market quickly connected the release of VINECOIN to the idea of reviving the Vine brand. The token attracted significant attention and support from investors thanks to Rus’s background and his historical ties to Vine.

The launch of VINECOIN has sparked widespread discussion. While it is essentially a meme coin, its association with Vine has caused a strong market response. Additionally, Rus announced that the VINE tokens held by developers would be locked until the Vine platform is revived. Following this news, VINECOIN’s market capitalization surged rapidly, surpassing 100 million USD.

Timeline Review

January 19, 2025

Tech blogger Sawyer Merritt posted on X, claiming that TikTok had been removed from the Apple and Google app stores and that the U.S. ban was now in effect. That afternoon, Merritt tweeted at Musk, saying, “It’s time for Vine to come back!” Musk responded, “We’re considering it.” The removal of TikTok sparked interest in alternative short-video platforms, and Musk’s response set the stage for the launch of VineCoin.

January 23, 2025: A Day of Wild Speculation

At 8 AM, VineCoin (VINE) was officially launched on the Solana network, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. By 9:30 AM, co-founder Rus posted an announcement about the token release and shared the contract address, attracting a flood of speculators. To address concerns about a hacked account, Rus posted several selfie GIFs and video updates to confirm his account was not compromised.

Rus also outlined the token locking rules: developer tokens (5%) would be locked until April 20 at 4:20 PM, and he promised, “If Vine doesn’t return, we’ll continue locking the tokens,” sharing his wallet address for transparency.

Once the authenticity was verified, within just 6 hours, VINE’s market cap soared past $230 million. This spike was driven largely by nostalgia, with many former Vine users and crypto-influencers jumping in on the speculation. Combined with Musk’s ambiguous statement about “considering reviving Vine,” the hype created a short-term consensus. By 9:30 PM that evening, VINE’s market cap had reached $500 million, and the market entered a FOMO phase, with retail investors drawn in by the massive price jump. Social media buzz around “Vine revival” and “Musk’s endorsement” fueled a surge of investment. However, by the early hours of the next morning, the market cap had plummeted back to $170 million, a 66% drop from the peak. The sharp decline was mainly due to whales cashing out, with on-chain data showing several early investors selling off near $500 million, sparking a wave of selling.

January 24, 2025: Speculation Fades as Expectations Fall Short

Founder Rus teased, “Sweet surprises for Vine’s anniversary,” hinting at potential updates or good news. On this day, VINE’s market cap rebounded to $370 million, a 117% jump from its previous low. This volatility reflected market manipulation, as the community took the teaser as a sign that “Vine’s revival was imminent,” and some investors rushed to jump in. However, when no substantial news was released, market sentiment quickly cooled. By 5 AM on January 25, the market cap had dropped to $100 million, a 73% fall from the high. At this point, on-chain data showed low liquidity, with small trades triggering sharp price swings.

January 25, 2025: A Short-lived Resurgence

At 5 AM, Rus posted that “developers are still actively working,” trying to reassure the community. The market cap began to rise, reaching about $400 million by 1 PM, a 300% rebound within 24 hours. This sharp increase may have been driven by whale activity: on-chain tracking revealed a new address that had bought $5 million in VINE tokens at a low price and used social media to create a “bottomed out” narrative, encouraging others to buy in. However, the rebound didn’t last, and the price dropped back within a few hours.

January 26, 2025: The Final Hype

Around 6 PM, VINE’s market cap surged to $470 million, reaching its second highest point. This spike seemed driven by manipulation to push the price up before unloading. After hitting $470 million, the market cap gradually dropped to around $30 million, a 94% drop from its peak.

The price curve of VINE mirrors the classic pattern seen in crypto markets: “narrative-driven—FOMO peak—whale harvest—crash.” Initially, it relied on the TikTok ban, nostalgia for the Vine brand, and Musk’s influence to inflate the bubble, but lacked fundamental value (no real use cases, unlocking risks, etc.), and after the speculative money evaporated, it returned to square one. Given the current market cap, the project seems to have entered the “zombie phase.” Its future revival will depend on what the team does after the token unlock on April 20, as well as the reality of the Vine revival plan.

Tokenomics

Vinecoin has a total supply of 1 billion VINE tokens. Nearly all these tokens are already in circulation, and the supply has stabilized. As for the developer allocation, the project has set aside 5% (or 50 million VINE tokens) for the development team. These tokens are mainly intended for team incentives, project development, and strategic partnerships to ensure the team has enough resources to drive the project forward. These 50 million tokens will be unlocked on April 4, 2025, meaning they will not enter circulation or impact the market price before that date.

Token Performance

Since reaching its peak on January 27, the price of VINE tokens has steadily fallen and is now near its historical lows. Despite this, there has been a significant trading volume, and various moving averages show signs of converging, suggesting that the price decline could slow down in the short term.

In general, VINE tokens remain highly speculative, with considerable market volatility. Investors should be cautious when assessing the risks, particularly during this period of continued price decline. It’s important to monitor any signs of market reversal and changes in capital flows to determine whether it is the right time to invest.

Risks and Controversies

VineCoin, as a meme token fueled by nostalgic cultural IP and market speculation, faces several risks and controversies that could impact its future development. These risks have already begun to surface amid the significant market fluctuations following the launch.

The primary risk lies in structural flaws in its tokenomics design. The 5% of tokens reserved for the developers (50 million VINE) will be unlocked on April 20, 2025. If the development team chooses to sell these tokens or if market confidence wanes, it could lead to a massive supply influx, potentially causing a sharp price drop.

Another issue is the lack of practical utility. The token is not yet linked to any features on a potential Vine platform revival (such as content rewards or paid services), and it lacks any real-world use cases. Its value relies almost entirely on the community’s hopes for Vine’s return and the temporary hype fueled by figures like Elon Musk. This model is highly vulnerable to narrative fatigue or a shift in trends, which could render it ineffective.

Additionally, Dom Hofmann, another Vine co-founder, has distanced himself from the VineCoin project, revealing a lack of unified strategic support for the token. Rus Yusupov’s frequent promotional efforts on social media (such as teasing “sweet surprises” without follow-through) have also eroded community trust and fueled suspicions of “pump-and-dump” behavior.

The project also faces the risk of key creators pulling away. If influential figures involved in Vine decide to leave due to disagreements over profits or regulatory pressure, it could shake the project’s foundation, resulting in a loss of user trust and the collapse of its value proposition.

Moreover, meme coins in general rely heavily on celebrity endorsements and the mood of the community. The price surge of many meme tokens is often driven by celebrity figures or social media attention, especially from influential figures like Musk. However, if this celebrity influence wanes or the hype shifts elsewhere, the token’s market value could quickly evaporate, leading to steep losses for investors. Furthermore, meme coins are inherently speculative, with little solid backing, making the market highly volatile.

Finally, regulatory uncertainty poses a significant risk. Cryptocurrency regulations are still evolving worldwide, particularly for tokens with no real-world applications and lacking supporting infrastructure. Meme coins, in particular, may face more stringent scrutiny. If governments implement harsher regulations, it could jeopardize the legality of meme coins and lead to the shutdown or banning of platforms or projects involved with them.

Future Development

The launch of VINE marks a confluence of social media nostalgia and cryptocurrency speculation. In the short term, the success of VineCoin largely hinges on whether it can sustain community interest, particularly after the initial speculative surge. One of the project’s biggest challenges is the unlocking of developer tokens in April 2025, which could lead to a sell-off and cause market price fluctuations. However, if VineCoin can move beyond its current reliance on speculative hype and develop practical use cases and a solid business model, it could pave the way for long-term growth and sustained market support. Still, its future remains uncertain.

Conclusion

The launch and spread of VINE have been filled with drama. It represents a potential revival of the Vine brand, highlighting how the cryptocurrency market thrives on trending topics. While there is still a significant gap between VINE and the actual return of the Vine platform, its rise in popularity reflects the market’s anticipation of the cultural icon from the golden age of short videos. Whether Vine can truly return and whether VINE can stand out will remain key areas of focus for the crypto community and investors. For investors, navigating this market—a mix of nostalgia and financial speculation—requires the courage to chase trends and the clarity to see through the narrative haze.