Farewell to the Fate of Retail Investors: A Survival Guide for Ordinary People in the Crypto Market

Beginner2/18/2025, 3:16:58 AM
Currently, the blockchain is indeed a hotspot for wealth concentration. If you have the talent to excel on-chain, that's the best opportunity. However, if you don't have strong intuition or the ability to make money, you can try learning and researching.

A month ago, Trump token $Trump exploded onto the scene, with hundreds of times profit leading several newcomers to the A9 hall of fame. Starting yesterday, CZ @cz_binance hyped $TST, which made the Binance Chain flourish again, rising 1500% in one day, and many people once again made a fortune. Behind the prosperity, however, is more anxiety.

The reality is that many people didn’t achieve results, or they lost money in the process. Yet, looking at Twitter, it seems like everyone is celebrating huge gains, which deepens their self-doubt.

Countless people are asking themselves: “Am I really not cut out for this industry?”

In the past month, the most common industry voice we’ve heard is: Blockchain is the true source of wealth explosion, and it’s the best place to make money. If you can’t succeed on-chain or lack the ability to make money on-chain, you’re a representative of the old crypto world and a loser, destined to be eliminated.

I agree with this viewpoint to an extent. Indeed, blockchain is currently a hotspot for concentrated wealth. If you have the talent to make money on-chain, that’s the best opportunity. However, if you don’t have strong intuition or the ability to make money, you can try learning and researching deeply, obsessively. For instance, @haze0x published a guide titled “GMGN: A Meme Guide from $0 to $10 Million.”

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Rk-fr_AAfPSVtV8gCgOpsi2GpNI23uj/view

This kind of material is excellent. After learning, you can try with small amounts, and you’ll quickly see your talent and abilities.

Of course, there’s a greater possibility that, through deep research and learning, you might discover that blockchain isn’t for you.

Does that mean there’s no hope?

So, I also hope everyone can thoughtfully consider the following questions: Is blockchain really suitable for everyone?

For an ordinary person who can’t access opportunities on-chain, how can they find value within the industry?

Is there a universal path for people within the crypto world?

1. I actually agree with this viewpoint to an extent:

Everything requires targeted solutions —

I agree because the current on-chain opportunities are indeed once-in-a-lifetime chances. I also admire smart, diligent, and courageous friends like @0xSunNFT, @yuyue_chris, and @EnHeng456. I’ve said it before, and I’m really happy to see them make money. I don’t know if you understand this feeling, but industry opportunities continuously create new chances, allowing newcomers to find opportunities. Rapid iteration not only breaks down fixed hierarchies but also lets outsiders see that the opportunities here aren’t just for the old-timers or resource owners. Compared to most Web2 industries, Web3 is fair in this way. As long as you work hard, stay diligent, and have the courage, opportunities are here. This will make more newcomers fall in love with the industry.

The part I don’t fully agree with is the idea that if you can’t make money on-chain, you’ll be eliminated and have no hope. There is some bias in this. First, I still believe there is hope. Staying calm, finding your own path, or gradually making money is also a way. The crypto world isn’t only about PVP; there’s also the investment approach of building relationships with others, and we shouldn’t deny that. Second, it’s not just about making money on-chain, but also about whether we as individuals are suited for on-chain PVP. I think on-chain PVP is an extremely difficult and talent-driven activity that isn’t suitable for everyone. It’s like trading—just because one in a thousand people make big money doesn’t mean those who don’t understand trading will be eliminated. Web3 has many ways to make money. The most important thing is to find something that suits your talent, personality, and rhythm. That’s what matters!

Therefore, I think each of us should seriously consider where our personality and abilities lie and how we should walk our own path to wealth.

2. If you don’t take wealth seriously, wealth won’t take you seriously;

I often see many people recklessly throw hundreds of thousands into the market, but they are unwilling to think, even for a second, about where their problems lie. How should they approach this investment market?

To put it simply, most people are eager for quick success, unwilling to slowly build wealth, and even less willing to spend a second thinking seriously about wealth. They rely on others to get rich, rely on luck to get rich, rely on information to get rich.

I collectively refer to these people as retail investors!

Retail investors don’t respect wealth, and the market is quite fascinating in this way—if you don’t take wealth seriously, wealth won’t take you seriously either.

3. Another point to consider: What is wealth?

Think seriously about what wealth really means to us. \

Wealth is the money you truly take from this industry, the real changes to your quality of life and your social circle. Only then can it be called wealth. For example, after achieving more results, your mindset undergoes a huge transformation. You invest in your health to continuously improve, meet more potential future business partners, experience the various kinds of life you’ve always wanted to live, and truly complete the accumulation and stable growth of wealth—these are what we truly call wealth! \

If all you have is an A9 account and keep throwing money in, this isn’t wealth. I think it’s better to call it: chips.

4. The real money-making principles for most people in the industry;

Next, I want to share an underlying strategic mindset that most people can implement and achieve results with. This isn’t the first time I’ve written about it, but every time I do, I gain

new insights, and I hope it will inspire others:

If you, like me, are not particularly gifted, don’t have great trading instincts, and aren’t very sensitive to on-chain trends, then it’s best to execute this strategy faithfully, just like I do.

This strategy doesn’t require exceptional talent or brilliance. Ordinary people can definitely make money as long as they follow it consistently.

5. The essence of the trading market and the optimal strategy for ordinary people;

We’ve already figured out the essence of the trading market (a unique retail-driven market), summarized its characteristics (sharp ups and downs, short bull markets and long bear markets).

In response to these characteristics, I’ve formulated an optimal trading strategy for ordinary people (a strategy that combines the advantages of value investing and trend investing: the “left hand in, right hand out” approach).

Then, I clarified the two key points that determine the success of this strategy (cyclical trading market + continuous inflow of funds), and how to ensure the smooth progress of these points (scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading products).

There are a few important points here:

1️⃣ What is the optimal trading strategy:

I believe this strategy is universal,

Because compared to the immense uncertainty of fast-entry, fast-exit contract leverage and the difficulties faced by meme coin speculators, value investing is the only one that can be learned, while trend investing only requires execution.

In simple terms, with diligence + resistance to human weaknesses, you can achieve results.

2️⃣ Why the two key points:

This is the foundation of my current position in the market: cyclical trading market + continuous inflow of funds.

1) Cyclical: The market is inherently cyclical, and the most favorable aspect for everyone is that the market cycles are very stable. Unlike the ten-year-long bear markets of traditional markets, the crypto market experiences a bull-bear cycle every three to four years, and I believe this will continue for quite a long time. This is the cycle. In a stable cyclical market, making money is like taking candy from a baby.

2) Continuous inflow of funds: This is also crucial. You should have good cash flow to support the cycles. This allows you to survive the bear market and gives you the courage to act when the market is at the bottom. I wrote a passage the day before yesterday: Anyone who has accumulated great wealth will feel at some point, “I’m not that great; the money is just blowing in the wind, I’m just picking it up.” Personal experience tells me that this is about right, but don’t overlook one thing—when it’s your turn to pick up money, first, you have to be alive, and second, you must have the capital to pick it up. Continuous inflow of funds is this foundation, and how this continuous flow of funds comes in, everyone has their own ways, but it must be there.

3️⃣ What is the foundation for smooth progress?

Scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading products;

For position management, I recommend using a Bitcoin-based management model. What does this mean? Please refer to my pinned post. Bitcoin, as the foundation of the industry, is a higher-dimensional existence and is the best example of the Lindy effect. So, in a stable industry, holding Bitcoin is a must. If you don’t have great talent and haven’t been buying

Bitcoin, hoping to take a gamble, forget it, you’re the retail investor. In fact, 90% of people’s long-term crypto gains are outpaced by Bitcoin. Even most VCs and funds in the space don’t beat Bitcoin. So, why wouldn’t you hold Bitcoin?

Beyond Bitcoin, you can reserve 20-30% of your position for some promising projects. One reason is to maintain a connection with the industry, and if opportunities arise, you can quickly jump in. Another reason is to satisfy your trading desire. Once an opportunity comes, and you make 10x or 100x, you need to swiftly convert it back into Bitcoin and wait for the cycle.

Once you have the trading strategy and trading products, it’s time to roll up your sleeves and take action.

4️⃣ Judgment and experience of the bull-bear cycles:

Two phrases I often say:

First, I value the long-term investment gains brought by patience and waiting. Second, I believe investing is a process that requires accumulating experience and luck. If we’re not particularly gifted, we must make efforts to survive multiple bull markets.

Surviving more bull markets gives you two advantages:

First, more opportunities to change your fate and more chips to participate with.

Second, it allows you to better perceive the market and make the right judgment.

The first step is to determine the market stage (I’ve written before about the emotion theory), so you’re not blindly following the market. You’ll be able to wait for the right phase to buy and sell (“dead quiet” phase to buy, “crazy” phase to sell). Using “emotion theory” + “specific market conditions” as the main guidelines, with “space + time” as the two key dimensions, you should fill your positions before the bull market hits. Then, using the trend investment sell principle, you should gradually exit when the bull market reverses.

At the moment, the market has clearly not entered the “crazy” phase. If, like me, you’ve already managed your positions and prepared, now all that’s left is to patiently wait for the signals indicating the bull market top.

Signals to watch for:

On-chain indicators: MVRV high (3-4+), NUPL in the euphoria zone, high unrealized profits;

Sentiment indicators: Fear and Greed index consistently above 80, widespread media and public discussions;

Technical analysis: Price far from long-term moving averages, RSI extremely overbought on weekly or monthly charts; price hitting new highs, but volume not following or diverging;

Derivatives overheating: Futures market leverage rising, long-to-short ratio imbalanced, funding rates high;

Mainstream fund movements: Institutions or whale addresses selling massively, exchange balances rising;

Macroeconomic and public opinion: Tightening after a period of looseness, major good news no longer driving prices up, but bad news triggering significant volatility.

If, at some point in the future, these signals converge or a majority of them appear, you need to be alert to the risk of a market top and correction. The true absolute top is often only confirmed after the fact, but using these indicators can help you lock in profits and avoid blindly chasing prices.

The “crazy” phase is usually short. Once these signals appear, the market may quickly enter a downturn. However, the decline won’t be rapid. It’s usually a slow process of cutting losses, followed by the “dead quiet” phase before the inevitable downturn. Before this phase comes, we must act decisively and sell during the exit phase. If you don’t sell, you’ll lose a lot of profit, and when the next bear market comes, you won’t have enough capital to buy the dip and miss the second wave.

This cycle will repeat. As long as you set up your positions, once the bull market begins, your account will enter a profit mode. After each bull market, Bitcoin will at least increase 5-10 times from the low point, and altcoins can easily increase by 100 times. My goal, or at least my goal, is to double my Bitcoin holdings in one cycle, and I think that’s enough.

This goal isn’t high relative to the work I do, but the actual income is very considerable and stable for the long term.

6. Conclusion

So, I believe that if you have the talent of a meme coin speculator, you are truly a rare individual. You must make the most of it, conquer the market, and turn your wealth into real fortune. In the future, you will certainly become a prominent figure!

If not, there’s no need to worry. The opportunities and challenges in the industry are very favorable for ordinary people. You must believe that what you are doing is the right choice. Avoid being arrogant, boastful, and anxious. These emotions are your enemies when it comes to making money.

Focus on what benefits you and is suitable for you. I mentioned before that my wife, who doesn’t understand blockchain technology or on-chain operations, might be making more money than most people. In just two years, her capital has more than tripled in this round of gains, most of it coming from Bitcoin.

Another key benefit of this strategy is that you won’t miss out on Bitcoin’s future dividends. Bitcoin is the most certain source of dividends, and what it brings could be real wealth, the kind that provides peace of mind.

After all, money will always flow to those who are calm and at peace!

As for how high Bitcoin will go in the future—whether it’s 200k, 500k, or 1 million—I think it doesn’t matter.

What is meant to come will definitely come. Light incense, sip tea, and calmly wait for the flowers to bloom!

Disclaimer:

  1. This article is reprinted from [TechFlow]. All copyrights belong to the original author [BITWU.ETH]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
  2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
  3. Translations of the article into other languages are done by the Gate Learn team. Unless mentioned, copying, distributing, or plagiarizing the translated articles is prohibited.

Farewell to the Fate of Retail Investors: A Survival Guide for Ordinary People in the Crypto Market

Beginner2/18/2025, 3:16:58 AM
Currently, the blockchain is indeed a hotspot for wealth concentration. If you have the talent to excel on-chain, that's the best opportunity. However, if you don't have strong intuition or the ability to make money, you can try learning and researching.

A month ago, Trump token $Trump exploded onto the scene, with hundreds of times profit leading several newcomers to the A9 hall of fame. Starting yesterday, CZ @cz_binance hyped $TST, which made the Binance Chain flourish again, rising 1500% in one day, and many people once again made a fortune. Behind the prosperity, however, is more anxiety.

The reality is that many people didn’t achieve results, or they lost money in the process. Yet, looking at Twitter, it seems like everyone is celebrating huge gains, which deepens their self-doubt.

Countless people are asking themselves: “Am I really not cut out for this industry?”

In the past month, the most common industry voice we’ve heard is: Blockchain is the true source of wealth explosion, and it’s the best place to make money. If you can’t succeed on-chain or lack the ability to make money on-chain, you’re a representative of the old crypto world and a loser, destined to be eliminated.

I agree with this viewpoint to an extent. Indeed, blockchain is currently a hotspot for concentrated wealth. If you have the talent to make money on-chain, that’s the best opportunity. However, if you don’t have strong intuition or the ability to make money, you can try learning and researching deeply, obsessively. For instance, @haze0x published a guide titled “GMGN: A Meme Guide from $0 to $10 Million.”

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Rk-fr_AAfPSVtV8gCgOpsi2GpNI23uj/view

This kind of material is excellent. After learning, you can try with small amounts, and you’ll quickly see your talent and abilities.

Of course, there’s a greater possibility that, through deep research and learning, you might discover that blockchain isn’t for you.

Does that mean there’s no hope?

So, I also hope everyone can thoughtfully consider the following questions: Is blockchain really suitable for everyone?

For an ordinary person who can’t access opportunities on-chain, how can they find value within the industry?

Is there a universal path for people within the crypto world?

1. I actually agree with this viewpoint to an extent:

Everything requires targeted solutions —

I agree because the current on-chain opportunities are indeed once-in-a-lifetime chances. I also admire smart, diligent, and courageous friends like @0xSunNFT, @yuyue_chris, and @EnHeng456. I’ve said it before, and I’m really happy to see them make money. I don’t know if you understand this feeling, but industry opportunities continuously create new chances, allowing newcomers to find opportunities. Rapid iteration not only breaks down fixed hierarchies but also lets outsiders see that the opportunities here aren’t just for the old-timers or resource owners. Compared to most Web2 industries, Web3 is fair in this way. As long as you work hard, stay diligent, and have the courage, opportunities are here. This will make more newcomers fall in love with the industry.

The part I don’t fully agree with is the idea that if you can’t make money on-chain, you’ll be eliminated and have no hope. There is some bias in this. First, I still believe there is hope. Staying calm, finding your own path, or gradually making money is also a way. The crypto world isn’t only about PVP; there’s also the investment approach of building relationships with others, and we shouldn’t deny that. Second, it’s not just about making money on-chain, but also about whether we as individuals are suited for on-chain PVP. I think on-chain PVP is an extremely difficult and talent-driven activity that isn’t suitable for everyone. It’s like trading—just because one in a thousand people make big money doesn’t mean those who don’t understand trading will be eliminated. Web3 has many ways to make money. The most important thing is to find something that suits your talent, personality, and rhythm. That’s what matters!

Therefore, I think each of us should seriously consider where our personality and abilities lie and how we should walk our own path to wealth.

2. If you don’t take wealth seriously, wealth won’t take you seriously;

I often see many people recklessly throw hundreds of thousands into the market, but they are unwilling to think, even for a second, about where their problems lie. How should they approach this investment market?

To put it simply, most people are eager for quick success, unwilling to slowly build wealth, and even less willing to spend a second thinking seriously about wealth. They rely on others to get rich, rely on luck to get rich, rely on information to get rich.

I collectively refer to these people as retail investors!

Retail investors don’t respect wealth, and the market is quite fascinating in this way—if you don’t take wealth seriously, wealth won’t take you seriously either.

3. Another point to consider: What is wealth?

Think seriously about what wealth really means to us. \

Wealth is the money you truly take from this industry, the real changes to your quality of life and your social circle. Only then can it be called wealth. For example, after achieving more results, your mindset undergoes a huge transformation. You invest in your health to continuously improve, meet more potential future business partners, experience the various kinds of life you’ve always wanted to live, and truly complete the accumulation and stable growth of wealth—these are what we truly call wealth! \

If all you have is an A9 account and keep throwing money in, this isn’t wealth. I think it’s better to call it: chips.

4. The real money-making principles for most people in the industry;

Next, I want to share an underlying strategic mindset that most people can implement and achieve results with. This isn’t the first time I’ve written about it, but every time I do, I gain

new insights, and I hope it will inspire others:

If you, like me, are not particularly gifted, don’t have great trading instincts, and aren’t very sensitive to on-chain trends, then it’s best to execute this strategy faithfully, just like I do.

This strategy doesn’t require exceptional talent or brilliance. Ordinary people can definitely make money as long as they follow it consistently.

5. The essence of the trading market and the optimal strategy for ordinary people;

We’ve already figured out the essence of the trading market (a unique retail-driven market), summarized its characteristics (sharp ups and downs, short bull markets and long bear markets).

In response to these characteristics, I’ve formulated an optimal trading strategy for ordinary people (a strategy that combines the advantages of value investing and trend investing: the “left hand in, right hand out” approach).

Then, I clarified the two key points that determine the success of this strategy (cyclical trading market + continuous inflow of funds), and how to ensure the smooth progress of these points (scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading products).

There are a few important points here:

1️⃣ What is the optimal trading strategy:

I believe this strategy is universal,

Because compared to the immense uncertainty of fast-entry, fast-exit contract leverage and the difficulties faced by meme coin speculators, value investing is the only one that can be learned, while trend investing only requires execution.

In simple terms, with diligence + resistance to human weaknesses, you can achieve results.

2️⃣ Why the two key points:

This is the foundation of my current position in the market: cyclical trading market + continuous inflow of funds.

1) Cyclical: The market is inherently cyclical, and the most favorable aspect for everyone is that the market cycles are very stable. Unlike the ten-year-long bear markets of traditional markets, the crypto market experiences a bull-bear cycle every three to four years, and I believe this will continue for quite a long time. This is the cycle. In a stable cyclical market, making money is like taking candy from a baby.

2) Continuous inflow of funds: This is also crucial. You should have good cash flow to support the cycles. This allows you to survive the bear market and gives you the courage to act when the market is at the bottom. I wrote a passage the day before yesterday: Anyone who has accumulated great wealth will feel at some point, “I’m not that great; the money is just blowing in the wind, I’m just picking it up.” Personal experience tells me that this is about right, but don’t overlook one thing—when it’s your turn to pick up money, first, you have to be alive, and second, you must have the capital to pick it up. Continuous inflow of funds is this foundation, and how this continuous flow of funds comes in, everyone has their own ways, but it must be there.

3️⃣ What is the foundation for smooth progress?

Scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading products;

For position management, I recommend using a Bitcoin-based management model. What does this mean? Please refer to my pinned post. Bitcoin, as the foundation of the industry, is a higher-dimensional existence and is the best example of the Lindy effect. So, in a stable industry, holding Bitcoin is a must. If you don’t have great talent and haven’t been buying

Bitcoin, hoping to take a gamble, forget it, you’re the retail investor. In fact, 90% of people’s long-term crypto gains are outpaced by Bitcoin. Even most VCs and funds in the space don’t beat Bitcoin. So, why wouldn’t you hold Bitcoin?

Beyond Bitcoin, you can reserve 20-30% of your position for some promising projects. One reason is to maintain a connection with the industry, and if opportunities arise, you can quickly jump in. Another reason is to satisfy your trading desire. Once an opportunity comes, and you make 10x or 100x, you need to swiftly convert it back into Bitcoin and wait for the cycle.

Once you have the trading strategy and trading products, it’s time to roll up your sleeves and take action.

4️⃣ Judgment and experience of the bull-bear cycles:

Two phrases I often say:

First, I value the long-term investment gains brought by patience and waiting. Second, I believe investing is a process that requires accumulating experience and luck. If we’re not particularly gifted, we must make efforts to survive multiple bull markets.

Surviving more bull markets gives you two advantages:

First, more opportunities to change your fate and more chips to participate with.

Second, it allows you to better perceive the market and make the right judgment.

The first step is to determine the market stage (I’ve written before about the emotion theory), so you’re not blindly following the market. You’ll be able to wait for the right phase to buy and sell (“dead quiet” phase to buy, “crazy” phase to sell). Using “emotion theory” + “specific market conditions” as the main guidelines, with “space + time” as the two key dimensions, you should fill your positions before the bull market hits. Then, using the trend investment sell principle, you should gradually exit when the bull market reverses.

At the moment, the market has clearly not entered the “crazy” phase. If, like me, you’ve already managed your positions and prepared, now all that’s left is to patiently wait for the signals indicating the bull market top.

Signals to watch for:

On-chain indicators: MVRV high (3-4+), NUPL in the euphoria zone, high unrealized profits;

Sentiment indicators: Fear and Greed index consistently above 80, widespread media and public discussions;

Technical analysis: Price far from long-term moving averages, RSI extremely overbought on weekly or monthly charts; price hitting new highs, but volume not following or diverging;

Derivatives overheating: Futures market leverage rising, long-to-short ratio imbalanced, funding rates high;

Mainstream fund movements: Institutions or whale addresses selling massively, exchange balances rising;

Macroeconomic and public opinion: Tightening after a period of looseness, major good news no longer driving prices up, but bad news triggering significant volatility.

If, at some point in the future, these signals converge or a majority of them appear, you need to be alert to the risk of a market top and correction. The true absolute top is often only confirmed after the fact, but using these indicators can help you lock in profits and avoid blindly chasing prices.

The “crazy” phase is usually short. Once these signals appear, the market may quickly enter a downturn. However, the decline won’t be rapid. It’s usually a slow process of cutting losses, followed by the “dead quiet” phase before the inevitable downturn. Before this phase comes, we must act decisively and sell during the exit phase. If you don’t sell, you’ll lose a lot of profit, and when the next bear market comes, you won’t have enough capital to buy the dip and miss the second wave.

This cycle will repeat. As long as you set up your positions, once the bull market begins, your account will enter a profit mode. After each bull market, Bitcoin will at least increase 5-10 times from the low point, and altcoins can easily increase by 100 times. My goal, or at least my goal, is to double my Bitcoin holdings in one cycle, and I think that’s enough.

This goal isn’t high relative to the work I do, but the actual income is very considerable and stable for the long term.

6. Conclusion

So, I believe that if you have the talent of a meme coin speculator, you are truly a rare individual. You must make the most of it, conquer the market, and turn your wealth into real fortune. In the future, you will certainly become a prominent figure!

If not, there’s no need to worry. The opportunities and challenges in the industry are very favorable for ordinary people. You must believe that what you are doing is the right choice. Avoid being arrogant, boastful, and anxious. These emotions are your enemies when it comes to making money.

Focus on what benefits you and is suitable for you. I mentioned before that my wife, who doesn’t understand blockchain technology or on-chain operations, might be making more money than most people. In just two years, her capital has more than tripled in this round of gains, most of it coming from Bitcoin.

Another key benefit of this strategy is that you won’t miss out on Bitcoin’s future dividends. Bitcoin is the most certain source of dividends, and what it brings could be real wealth, the kind that provides peace of mind.

After all, money will always flow to those who are calm and at peace!

As for how high Bitcoin will go in the future—whether it’s 200k, 500k, or 1 million—I think it doesn’t matter.

What is meant to come will definitely come. Light incense, sip tea, and calmly wait for the flowers to bloom!

Disclaimer:

  1. This article is reprinted from [TechFlow]. All copyrights belong to the original author [BITWU.ETH]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
  2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
  3. Translations of the article into other languages are done by the Gate Learn team. Unless mentioned, copying, distributing, or plagiarizing the translated articles is prohibited.
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