Back then, I was too young to realize that every gift from fate had already been secretly priced. — Stefan Zweig

1. Crypto as a Casino: Luck or Skill? Success Doesn’t Lie in High Difficulty

Success doesn’t depend on whether a game feels like gambling—it hinges on answering one fundamental question: is it a “game of luck” or a “game of skill”? In the early days of crypto, luck undeniably played the leading role. Taking bold risks often led to big rewards, and early adopters were handsomely compensated for their adventurous spirit. As the industry matured, the occasional tales of crypto riches continue to emerge. However, the opportunities driven purely by luck have dwindled. For every story of overnight wealth, there are countless tales of fortunes lost in an instant.

Luck opens the door, but skill determines whether you can turn opportunity into wealth. At this point in crypto’s evolution, we must acknowledge that while luck still plays a part, skill has become increasingly important, especially for retail investors.

So, what’s the ultimate skill for winning in crypto? Opinions vary. Some argue it’s the mastery of short-term trading, becoming a king of the candlestick charts. Others champion the patience of value investing, holding large positions over the long term. In reality, both strategies have produced champions—and failures.

From the perspective of an everyday retail investor like myself, one universal principle stands out: embracing low-complexity investments is the only path to victory. Remember the qualifiers: ordinary people, and ordinary retail investors.

Both “diamond hands” and short-term FOMO-driven “paper hands” face substantial challenges in achieving ultimate success.

2. The Survivor Bias of Diamond Hands: “If You’ve Got It, Go for It; If You Don’t, Don’t Force It”

Before we dive into the concept of “diamond hands,” let’s assume a baseline: an ordinary Web3 surfer—bold but with no exceptional talents. You’re mediocre at reading candlestick charts, can’t hold onto assets long-term, feel anxious watching others get rich, and consistently lose when you dive in. In short, a typical retail investor. Now, let’s discuss the odds of an ordinary person becoming a “diamond hands” investor, so you can set your expectations accordingly.

The term “diamond hands” originated on forums like Reddit. It refers to investors who refuse to sell their holdings, no matter how volatile the asset.

This definition comes with two key conditions: The asset must be highly volatile. The investor must resolutely hold, regardless of market swings. By this definition, someone holding gold long-term doesn’t qualify. Only those who navigate highly speculative, turbulent markets, hold steadfastly, and achieve exceptional results can claim the title of “diamond hands.”

In the crypto world, where life-changing wealth can be made overnight, everyone dreams of becoming “diamond hands.” However, very few actually achieve it; otherwise, “diamond hands” wouldn’t be such a rare and legendary status in the community.

To become “diamond hands,” you need the following traits:

1) Exceptional foresight and a dose of luck: You must identify an asset’s growth potential early, long before it gains traction, and have confidence in its long-term certainty.

2) Sufficient free capital: You need enough disposable income to invest significantly without disrupting your lifestyle or mental stability.

3) Unwavering conviction: You must possess an extraordinary level of understanding and maintain your stance over a long period, regardless of market noise.

While these three criteria seem simple, few can truly meet them. Knowing is easy; doing is hard. For most retail investors, the difficulty of fulfilling even the first or third condition highlights how rare true “diamond hands” are.

The defining characteristics of a “diamond hands” investor are: Having some spare cash—something most people manage; Possessing a level of insight far beyond the average person—which eliminates the majority; Maintaining long-term emotional stability and conviction—this filters out even more.

For an ordinary person, the odds of becoming “diamond hands” are slim.

To clarify, we’re discussing probabilities for ordinary people. Some risk everything, endure massive long-term drawdowns, and eventually achieve significant results. However, such individuals are far from ordinary.

The harsh reality is that we often see someone achieve effortless success and think, “If they can do it, why can’t I?” What we fail to realize is the pain they endured to reach that point—the pain we might not be able to handle. This success is a combination of innate talent, luck, and relentless effort.

If you’ve got what it takes, then go for it. If you don’t, don’t force it. Sometimes waiting rewards you with value because you understand what true value is. However, most of the time, waiting doesn’t create value; it turns into an obsession. Identifying assets with true long-term value is a rare skill. Those who succeed are either exceptionally intelligent, extraordinarily talented, or exceptionally diligent—and often, all three.

So, if the probability of becoming “diamond hands” is low, can short-term FOMO be a path to riches? The answer is still no.

3. The Trap of Short-Term FOMO: “I Can Do It, I Want In; I Can’t Do It, But I Can’t Get Out”

First, it’s important to recognize that a financial market bubble can be seen as a positive term, but you must understand it and embrace it—not become part of it. Short-term FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) tests not only your mentality but also your operational skills. The primary challenges it presents are:

• Everyone is making 10x a day—will you play?
• Everyone is on the bandwagon—will you join?
• Others see a 100x gain, but you get off at 20%.
• A new gold rush is emerging, but you’re not on board.
• You hop on, only to realize you’ve been trapped.
• The end.

Take the recent MEME coin frenzy as an example. This cycle plays out daily: first, you’re watching from the sidelines, then you jump in, add more, only to be trapped, forced to stop loss, and eventually exit.

You’ll notice a surprising phenomenon: during this period, it seems like there’s money to be made everywhere, yet the person who walks away with the big gains is never you. Initially, you make big gains, then small profits, followed by small losses, and finally, either you’re stuck, your investment is underwater, or you take a massive loss.

So, where does the problem lie?

The characteristic of short-term FOMO is that the odds can be high, but the win rate is not necessarily so. Besides the general bull market where everything rises, the FOMO market often focuses on a few assets being hyped, or hot money rapidly rotating between different sectors. This increases emotional volatility and randomness—after all, no one knows when Elon Musk will tweet his next cryptic emoji or post a new meme.

When can short-term FOMO lead to profits? The scenarios are:

• Getting in early: You spot the asset’s value before the majority of the market, with a sharp market sense and judgment.
• Running fast: You can identify the risks at the top quickly and exit before it’s too late, controlling your greed.
• Holding back: Once you’re in, you avoid overtrading and impulsively buying. This requires exceptional position and risk management.

Only a rare few have all three of these abilities in the market.

It’s important to note that this doesn’t mean short-term FOMO is inherently a losing game, but the odds of making significant profits are low. For most people, it’s still a high-difficulty and impractical path.

Warren Buffett’s mentor, Benjamin Graham, once said: “Bull markets are the primary cause of ordinary investors’ losses.” The profound truth behind this statement is that it’s not the FOMO in a bull market that causes losses, but rather the huge losses that come from ignoring the short-term risks.

The paradox of the financial market is this: a bear market doesn’t always mean high risk, and a bull market doesn’t necessarily mean low risk.

For short-term FOMO, while you’re observing, a small group has already established positions. By the time you jump in, the asset has already surged several times, blinding you to the risks. At this point, some people have already exited, and when you realize something’s wrong, you’re already deep in a losing position.

4. Will This Time Be Different? The Cost of Today, the Price of Tomorrow

When discussing the strategies of playing as a diamond hand or chasing short-term FOMO for success, we often realize that the odds of ultimately winning with either strategy are relatively low. You might argue that with Trump in power, the favorable policies are set to explode, and the bull market has no upper limit, so both diamond hands and short-term FOMO will win. However, the reality is likely not so simple. History has never shown an eternal bull market, nor an eternal bear market—everything moves in cycles.

For the average person, we need to embrace low-difficulty investments, not seek out high-risk, high-reward ventures. This doesn’t mean that since diamond hands and short-term FOMO are unlikely to win, we should give up altogether. Every choice you make now is a cost, which may lead to huge returns in the future, or it could result in an unbearable price.

For most ordinary people, the probability of getting rich through any replicable strategy is extremely low. Your resources, abilities, temperament, and even the environment you’re in can make failure a constant possibility.

The path to sudden wealth is hard to replicate, but the reasons for failure tend to be similar.

What I mean by “low-difficulty” is that, based on a deep understanding of your personality, resources, and strengths, you should focus on doing what you are best at and have the highest win rate in. Everything else comes down to long-term persistence.

If you can’t even ensure basic life security, you should find a job instead of trying to master the art of being a diamond hand.
If you’re someone who can’t tolerate emotional fluctuations and drawdowns, you should avoid repeatedly chasing prices in a volatile market. Instead, focus on a single target, invest small amounts over the long term, or just stick to a more predictable strategy and make the most certain profits.

Overcoming human weaknesses is never easy, and for most people, it may be something they can’t challenge or overcome for most of their lives. So, the most low-risk thing you can do is to continuously learn from the top experts, integrate their methods into your own system, and focus on the investments that you are best at with the highest probability of success.

This is my insight and advice to ordinary retail investors. While it might not make you rich overnight, minimizing your losses over the long term is, in itself, another form of success.

As we stand at the beginning of a new bull market, whatever path you choose, I hope this time, you win!

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