Gate Research: Web3 On-Chain Insights - January 2025

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2/11/2025, 9:54:16 AM

The latest Web3 on-chain data report from Gate Research reveals that after reaching a record high in January, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase, with selling pressure from long-term holders easing and the market stabilizing. Bitcoin's net realized profit/loss declined by 82% from its peak, while the proportion of Bitcoin supply held by exchange addresses dropped to approximately 13.7%. Meanwhile, the $TRUMP token saw its trading volume peak at over $30 billion, but the number of holding addresses declined rapidly, indicating strong short-term speculative activity.

Introduction

This report provides an overview of Web3 on-chain data for January 2025. The cryptocurrency market underwent significant volatility, with Bitcoin reaching a historic high before entering a consolidation phase. As a result, market sentiment gradually stabilized as strong capital inflows began to taper off. Meanwhile, the meme coin $TRUMP, launched on the Solana blockchain on January 18, quickly became a market sensation. Its short-term trading volume spiked to $36 billion, only to plummet by 90% shortly after, accompanied by a substantial drop in holding addresses. This suggests that the market remains largely driven by short-term speculation.

Summary

After Bitcoin hit an all-time high in January, it entered a consolidation phase, with selling pressure from long-term holders easing, leading to market stabilization.
Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss has decreased 82% from its peak.
The percentage of Bitcoin held by exchange addresses has dropped to approximately 13.7%.
The $TRUMP token saw trading volume peak above $30 billion, but the number of holding addresses quickly declined, indicating a strong sentiment of short-term speculation.

On-Chain Data Summary

Bitcoin Key Metrics

BTC Realized Market Cap
After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $108,786 in January, capital inflows slowed, selling pressure eased, and the market consolidated. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s realized market cap has reached $842.7 billion and continues to grow. This metric is calculated based on the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved on-chain. Therefore, for Bitcoin’s price to sustain further growth, additional capital inflows may be required. [1]

BTC Net Realized Profit/Loss
Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss has been downward since December. This metric is calculated based on the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved on-chain. The data indicates that capital flows have become more neutral, with the market absorbing selling pressure. Realized profits have dropped 82% from the January peak of $4.6 billion to $817 million. [2]

BTC Exchange Address Holdings
According to Glassnode’s on-chain data, the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by exchange addresses has shown a clear downward trend, declining from approximately 14.1% in January to nearly 13.7%. This suggests that investors may transfer Bitcoin from exchanges to personal wallets, indicating a growing preference for long-term holding. [3]

BTC Long-Term Holder Binary Spending Indicator
This metric measures the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH). After Bitcoin reached $100,000, the total LTH supply significantly declined. However, the downward trend has recently slowed, indicating that selling pressure is gradually easing. [4]

Popular Token Dynamics Analysis

Overview of Popular Token Data

$TRUMP – Among the trending tokens in January, $TRUMP, issued in connection with former U.S. President Donald Trump, gained the most attention. It was launched on the Solana blockchain on January 18, 2025, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens and an initial circulating supply of 200 million. The remaining tokens will be gradually released over the next three years.

The primary holders of $TRUMP are CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, jointly controlling 80% of the total supply. During its debut weekend, the token saw a trading volume surge to approximately $36 billion before dropping by 90%. At its peak, the number of active addresses increased by 20%, reaching 12,000.

On-Chain Activity
Trading volume peaked on January 18, with total buy and sell transactions exceeding $6 billion. [5]

Market Sentiment Trends for $TRUMP Token
Public engagement with $TRUMP peaked at 360 million interactions on January 19. However, sentiment declined sharply by 96.8%, plummeting to just 11.34 million by January 31. This drastic fluctuation suggests that market enthusiasm was short-lived, likely driven by a rapid fade in speculative interest. [6]

Market Sentiment Surrounding Donald Trump
In the broader public discourse, discussions about former U.S. President Donald Trump peaked at 40 billion interactions between January 19 and January 22, highlighting the significant impact of his news and activities on the market. However, this attention rapidly declined by 98.5%, dropping to 595 million by January 31, indicating a waning public interest in Trump-related topics. [7]

On-Chain Insights and Potential Assessment

Fund Flows and Distribution

As of January 27, the largest holding address belongs to the $TRUMP team, controlling 80% of the total supply. This places Trump’s team in absolute control over the $TRUMP token ecosystem, significantly influencing market dynamics and token pricing. [8]

Starting from the sixth hour after the token’s listing on January 18, Trump’s team began transferring large amounts of $TRUMP to exchanges, initially depositing tokens through Bybit and Crypto.com. The largest single transfer was 4.5 million $TRUMP to Binance, valued at approximately $170 million. The team deposited around 11 million $TRUMP tokens, worth up to $400 million, into exchanges. [9] By moving tokens to exchanges, this action likely increased market liquidity, providing more trading opportunities for both retail and institutional investors.

Market Hype Post-Listing
According to Dune data, $TRUMP’s initial listing attracted significant speculative capital. Large transactions (>$1,000) on various DEXs surged rapidly between January 18 and 19, driving a sharp price increase for $TRUMP. However, as market enthusiasm waned, large transaction volumes declined significantly after January 20, with trading activity on Whirlpool and Phoenix dropping notably. This suggests that speculative funds gradually exited, leading to reduced market liquidity.

By the end of January, trading volumes had stabilized, and $TRUMP’s price returned to more rational levels. This trend indicates that early-stage trading was dominated by short-term speculation. Among the various DEXs, Meteora maintained a leading position due to its higher liquidity, while Whirlpool and Phoenix showed weaker user activity and market traction. [10]

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Value
The initial market surge of $TRUMP displayed strong speculative characteristics. According to Dune data, large transaction volumes on various DEXs spiked immediately after listing, driving a sharp price increase. However, as market enthusiasm waned, large transactions declined significantly after January 20. Meanwhile, the number of holding addresses plummeted from a peak of 12,704 on January 19, suggesting that many early holders opted for quick sell-offs, weakening market liquidity. This short-term volatility indicates that $TRUMP’s early growth was speculation-driven, lacking sustained long-term capital support. [11]

For $TRUMP to achieve long-term development, its future value will depend on ecosystem expansion and the introduction of practical utilities. Implementing innovative features, fostering community engagement, and enhancing token use cases could help shift $TRUMP from short-term hype to a more stable and lasting presence in the market.

Conclusion

In January 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant developments. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before entering a consolidation phase, during which selling pressure from long-term holders diminished, leading to market stabilization. Conversely, the $TRUMP token experienced a rapid surge in trading volume and the number of holding addresses shortly after its launch. However, these metrics declined sharply soon after, indicating that $TRUMP remains primarily driven by short-term speculative activities.

Reference:

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Gate Research: Web3 On-Chain Insights - January 2025

Advanced2/11/2025, 9:54:16 AM

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Introduction

Summary

After Bitcoin hit an all-time high in January, it entered a consolidation phase, with selling pressure from long-term holders easing, leading to market stabilization.
Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss has decreased 82% from its peak.
The percentage of Bitcoin held by exchange addresses has dropped to approximately 13.7%.
The $TRUMP token saw trading volume peak above $30 billion, but the number of holding addresses quickly declined, indicating a strong sentiment of short-term speculation.