Foreword

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the Bitcoin spot ETF for its one-year anniversary. On the first day of listing, its trading volume exceeded $4.6 billion, surpassing the first-month capital inflows of over 6,000 ETFs launched in the U.S. in the past 30 years, making it one of the most successful ETFs in history. This highlights the recognition of Bitcoin in the global financial system and further strengthens its market position as an emerging asset class.

Against the backdrop of the maturing Bitcoin ecosystem, the long-term deployment of institutional investors has also driven expectations of price growth. For example, MicroStrategy has accumulated more than 400,000 Bitcoins, demonstrating its long-term belief in Bitcoin. At the same time, the annual report ‘Big Ideas 2025’ recently released by ARK Invest delves into the development trends of the Bitcoin and blockchain industries, predicting that Bitcoin prices will continue to reach new highs.

Against the backdrop of the increasingly recognized Bitcoin in the global financial markets, how high can its price ceiling reach? Will Bitcoin’s role as digital gold be further strengthened? This report will conduct an in-depth analysis of the development trends of Bitcoin based on the latest reports from institutions.

BTC basic concepts (image source:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp)

Review of BTC Price in 2024

By 2024, Bitcoin prices have shown a strong growth trend driven by several key events. At the beginning of the year, the price of the coin fluctuated in the range of $40,000 to $50,000. With the official launch of the January U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, market sentiment quickly heated up, and the price of Bitcoin broke through $60,000, continuing to fluctuate upwards. In March, Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade and Bitcoin’s fourth halving event occurred successively, intensifying market volatility. However, the overall trend remained upward, with Bitcoin reaching a technical historical high in April, approaching $80,000 at one point.

Starting in the second half of the year, the market gradually faced regulatory pressure and large-scale selling, causing the price of Bitcoin to temporarily retreat and hover in the range of $50,000 to $65,000. Nevertheless, in August, Bitcoin’s market share still exceeded 55%, demonstrating a relatively stable long-term confidence in Bitcoin within the market.

Entering the fourth quarter, Bitcoin saw multiple bullish events. In November, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election was determined, with Donald Trump’s victory driving Bitcoin to break through its historical high. Subsequently, the SEC approved Bitcoin ETF options trading. By the end of December, the price of Bitcoin surged to nearly $100,000, presenting a V-shaped reversal bull run for the whole year, validating the strong consensus in the market regarding Bitcoin as digital gold and a safe-haven asset.

Overall, the Bitcoin market in 2024 experienced a strong rally brought by the launch of ETFs, a pullback under regulatory and selling pressure, and a new high driven by macroeconomic benefits, demonstrating the increasing importance of Bitcoin in the global financial system and laying the foundation for higher valuations in the future.

2024 Bitcoin price trend and key events review (Image source:ARK Invest Big Ideas 2025.pdf)

Bitcoin scarcity and inflation rate

In 2024, Bitcoin ushered in its fourth halving, reducing miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, and the halving mechanism aims to control the speed at which new coins are issued and maintain the scarcity of Bitcoin. After this halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has further reduced to 0.9%, which is even lower than gold’s long-term supply growth rate, highlighting Bitcoin’s unique advantages in the global asset system.

Compared to gold, Bitcoin, as an algorithm-driven asset, has its supply rules strictly limited by code, with a total amount never exceeding 21 million, while gold still has reserves yet to be developed or discovered, and future supply could still increase. This means that after the inflation rate of Bitcoin is lower than the supply growth rate of gold, the scarcity of Bitcoin may even surpass that of gold, reinforcing its position as a store of value asset.

For a long time, gold has been considered an excellent hedge against inflation due to its limited supply and relatively slow production growth. However, in the future, as the inflation rate of Bitcoin further decreases, its stability as an inflation-resistant asset will also increase, gradually becoming a new choice to combat fiat currency depreciation. Against the backdrop of the increasingly digitized global financial market, Bitcoin’s halving mechanism will further solidify its market consensus as the ‘digital gold’.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparison of Inflation Rates (Image Source:ARK Invest Big Ideas 2025.pdf)

BTC future price prediction

A report suggests that an increasing number of public companies are incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets to hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks. As of 2024, 74 listed companies have directly held Bitcoin, with the total holdings increasing fivefold in the past year, from $11 billion to $55 billion, reflecting the continued recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class by institutional investors.

Based on this trend, investment institutions predict that by 2030, the target range for the price of Bitcoin will be between $300,000 and $1.5 million. In a relatively weak market performance, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $300,000, with an annual compound growth rate of about 21%; in a stable development environment, its price may rise to $710,000, corresponding to a 40% annual compound growth rate. In the most optimistic scenario, such as driven by factors like the adoption of national reserve assets, the price of Bitcoin is expected to exceed $1.5 million, with an annual compound growth rate of 58%.

Institutional forecasts suggest that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin is expected to exceed $1 million (Image source:ARK Invest Big Ideas 2025.pdf）

BTC investment risk warning

Although Bitcoin has gradually been widely regarded by the market as a safe-haven asset and a long-term investment target, investors still need to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, such as global interest rate policies, inflation levels, and changes in US dollar liquidity. In addition, regulatory policy uncertainty is also one of the major risks in the market. Strict policies on trading, taxation, and compliance requirements could affect market sentiment and capital inflows.

On the other hand, structural risks in the market should not be ignored, such as changes in ETF fund flows, whale selling, and the leverage effect in the derivatives market, all of which could exacerbate short-term market volatility. It is recommended that investors invest rationally, adjust their positions in combination with market dynamics, and flexibly respond to potential risks.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s performance since 2024 indicates that the market’s recognition of it as ‘digital gold’ and a value storage asset is constantly increasing. With deepening institutional investment and the gradual reduction of Bitcoin’s supply, its long-term price potential is still worth paying attention to. Although institutions predict that Bitcoin may surpass $1 million in 2030, the market still faces challenges such as regulatory changes and liquidity risks. It is recommended that investors, while focusing on Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential, also do sufficient risk management, prudently deal with market fluctuations, and achieve more stable investment returns.