1. Background of TRUMP Meme Coin project

1.1 Origin: From Political Events to Cryptographic Symbols

The TRUMP token launched on the Solana blockchain on January 17, 2025, inspired by the assassination attempt on Trump on July 13, 2024. In the incident, the image of Trump shouting “FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!” has become a cultural symbol in the community, and the token designer has transformed it into a Meme, aiming to “commemorate the courage and fighting spirit of leaders”.

Key Time Node:

• January 17, 2025: TRUMP token is launched, starting at $0.1824, soaring to $30 within 12 hours, with a market cap exceeding $30 billion.
• January 19th: The price reached a historical high of $82, with a circulating market value of $71.65 billion, surpassing most mainstream tokens.
• On January 20th, Trump was officially inaugurated as President of the United States. His wife Melania simultaneously issued the MELANIA token, but the market response was tepid, and the TRUMP price fell back to the $50 range.

Source:TRUMP Meme Coin official website

1.2 Token Distribution and Unlocking Mechanism

TRUMP token has a total supply of 1 billion, distributed as follows:

Source:TRUMP Meme Coin official website

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Among them, the Trump family holds 800 million tokens through CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, worth over 57.3 billion US dollars at one point, far exceeding their personal net worth estimate (5.6 billion US dollars).

2. Trump’s Bitcoin policy and market impact

2.1 Policy Shift: From Denial to Embrace

During his first presidential term (2017-2021), Trump was critical of Bitcoin, calling it a “volatile scam.” However, during the 2024 election campaign, his stance changed significantly, proposing ten crypto-friendly policies, with the core including:

1. Relaxing regulation: Stop the SEC’s crackdown on the crypto industry and dismiss former chairman Gary Gensler.
2. Support Bitcoin mining: provide tax breaks and power subsidies to make the United States a mining powerhouse.
3. Oppose CBDC: Ban the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currencies to maintain the dominant position of private encrypted assets.
4. Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Exploring the possibility of governments holding Bitcoin to address debt crises.

Policy implementation progress (as of February 2025):

• SEC personnel changes: appointing crypto supporter Paul Atkins as acting chairman of the SEC.
• BitcoinETF approved: Spot BitcoinETF approved in January 2024, launching a ‘Bitcoin + Ethereum’ mixed ETF in December.

2.2 Bitcoin price correlation with policies

Trump’s policies directly drove Bitcoin to break through the $100,000 mark, but macro risks such as trade wars have led to short-term volatility:

Timeline: Bitcoin price and key events

3. The market performance and controversy of the TRUMP token

3.1 Price Fluctuations and Liquidity Risks

The high volatility of the TRUMP token highlights the speculative nature of meme coins:

• First week of launch: Market cap surged from $1 billion to $14.5 billion, then plummeted to $5.3 billion.
• Centralized trading volume: 50% of early holders made profits of over tens of millions of dollars, while 200,000 retail investors suffered losses.

3.2 Community Disputes and Regulatory Doubts

• Conflict of interest: The Trump family has made over $100 million in profits from trading fees, and has been criticized for ‘using political influence for profit’.
• Market manipulation suspicion: On-chain data shows that some large transactions are highly correlated with addresses associated with Trump.

Source:Project Twitter X

4. TRUMP Token vs Bitcoin: 2025-2030 Price Forecast and Investment Logic Analysis

4. 1 TRUMP Token Prediction (2025-2030): From Meme Craze to Long-Term Value

The TRUMP token, as a product of political Meme culture, is not only driven by market sentiment, but also closely related to the policy direction of the Trump administration. According to Coinpedia, the TRUMP token will experience a process from high volatility to gradual stability between 2025 and 2030. Here are the forecast data:

Key Drivers:

• 2025: Trump administration policies implemented and community enthusiasm driving short-term uptrend, but high volatility may lead to price pullback.

• 2030: If the TRUMP token successfully integrates into practical applications (such as NFTs or political donations), its value may exceed $300.

  
  
  Source:Coinpedia Information

4.2 Bitcoin forecast (2025-2030): From halving effect to global reserve asset

Unlike the high volatility of the TRUMP token, the price trend of Bitcoin is more influenced by macroeconomics and supply and demand. According to Gate.io’s price prediction model, Bitcoin will show a steady upward trend from 2025 to 2030, with a potential maximum return of 74%. The following are the forecast data:

Source:Bitcoin Price Prediction | Gate.io

4.3 From Meme Token to Value Storage: The Differentiated Path of TRUMP and Bitcoin

The price predictions of TRUMP token and Bitcoin reveal two completely different asset logics: the former relies on political narrative and community enthusiasm, while the latter is based on scarcity and global consensus. Although TRUMP token may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term due to market sentiment, its long-term value still depends on the expansion of actual use cases. In contrast, the steady upward trend of Bitcoin reflects its solid position as ‘digital gold’.

For investors, the high volatility of the TRUMP token is suitable for short-term speculation, while Bitcoin is the preferred choice for long-term asset allocation. In the future, as the crypto market matures, the differentiation between the two may become more pronounced - the TRUMP token may become a symbol of political culture, while Bitcoin is expected to reshape the global financial system.

5. Summary: The symbiotic game between politics and encryption

Trump’s encryption policy and the rise of the TRUMP token mark a new ‘political’ stage in the cryptocurrency market. In the short term, regulatory relaxation and institutional entry provide fundamental support for Bitcoin, but macro risks such as trade wars still pose uncertainties. The TRUMP token has become a speculative vehicle for political narratives, and its high volatility exposes the vulnerability of Meme coins - lacking practical use cases, they may turn into ‘liquidity black holes’ after the hype fades.

Investors need to be vigilant about the differentiated risks of the two.

• Bitcoin: Long-term benefits from loose policies and ETF inflows, but attention needs to be paid to the Federal Reserve interest rates and geopolitical issues.
• TRUMP Token: It has strong short-term speculative attributes, but the family’s control and the unlocking of selling pressure may lead to drastic price fluctuations.

In the future, whether Trump can fulfill his promise of being the ‘encryption president’ will determine whether the United States can consolidate its global leadership in the crypto market. The rise and fall of the TRUMP token may become a key measure of the boundary between politics and the market.

Disclaimer: The data in this article is sourced from public information and AI model predictions, and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries extremely high risks, so please make decisions cautiously.