$TRUMP Token Full Timeline and Warnings for Ordinary Investors

Advanced2/28/2025, 10:15:43 AM
The launch of the $TRUMP token triggered an unprecedented meme coin frenzy, driving the token price to soar before rapidly falling back, trapping retail investors in a speculative pit. This article outlines the full timeline of the $TRUMP token and explores the risk warnings for ordinary investors, as well as the impact of this political and financial frenzy on the crypto industry.

In the Web3 era, “meme tokens” have become a concentrated exhibition of community sentiment and speculative psychology. In January 2025, just before taking office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced the launch of his personal meme coin, $TRUMP. This move led to a massive surge in the token’s price, causing a stir across global social, financial, and political arenas. Within just 48 hours, a small number of early blockchain adopters locked in huge profits, while more following retail investors found themselves stuck buying at the peak, experiencing the intense highs and devastating lows brought about by celebrity influence and rapid speculation.

Compared to any previous meme coin mania, the “U.S. President launching a token” has unprecedented controversy and impact across political, legal, ethical, and socio-cultural dimensions. In this commotion, we witnessed the victory of speculative capital, but also saw the awkward reality where traditional financial systems and governmental ethics were placed under intense scrutiny.

Research Background and Market Overview

The Rise of Meme Tokens and the Evolution of the Web3 Ecosystem

Meme: From Internet Memes to Financial Products

Since the birth of internet culture, many memes and subcultural symbols have emerged. These symbols gain explosive social influence due to their humor, viral nature, or ease of dissemination. Some “memes” are continually shared and even modified on forums and social media, gradually evolving into popular symbols within communities.

With the development of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi), the combination of “Meme + Token” successfully ties culture to finance, giving rise to a series of phenomenally popular projects such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. These projects do not necessarily have traditional technological support or practical applications; instead, they rely on the spontaneous enthusiasm of online communities and celebrity endorsements to create extreme market reactions in a short period.

It is important to note that blockchain is a decentralized database or ledger, where every transaction is jointly verified and recorded by multiple nodes in the network. Meme tokens do not provide functions such as payments or settlements on this ledger. Instead, they act more as a “ticket” or “symbol,” with their value entirely determined by community consensus.

The Evolution and Challenges of the Web3 Ecosystem

Web3 has given ordinary people more opportunities to control financial assets and data, making it easier for small teams or individuals to create breakout projects. Anyone can publish their own token based on blockchain smart contracts. As long as they find enough supporters or speculators, they may experience a “big bang” quickly. However, issues such as the lack of regulation, frequent bubbles, and varying project quality cannot be ignored.

The sudden emergence of Trump Coin ($TRUMP) can be seen as a fierce collision between the Web3 ecosystem and traditional political power. This time, it was not a small startup team, but a globally influential political figure stepping into the fray. The market’s attention exceeded typical meme coins, sparking more legal and ethical discussions in the global public discourse.

The Launch of $TRUMP and Core Highlights

Launch Time: The Intersection of Politics and Capital

The launch was set for the evening of January 17, 2025 (Eastern Time), just before Donald Trump was to assume office as President of the United States officially. This timing was widely interpreted as a “special window” to raise funds or accumulate wealth before the U.S. Constitution’s salary regulations took effect on him. The political identity and personal fame associated with the project allowed it to rapidly “go viral” without much promotional effort. In a short period, trading volume and media attention surged. According to media reports, from traditional financial circles to street-level discussions, people everywhere were talking about the astonishing event of a “president issuing a token.”

This was because cryptocurrency issuance does not require complex administrative approval. As long as a smart contract is deployed on the blockchain, tokens can be quickly pushed to market. Therefore, figures like Trump can technically create a token and sell it to the public quickly, should they choose to do so.

Team and Token Structure

$TRUMP was jointly launched by Trump family-affiliated companies (such as Fight Fight Fight LLC, CIC Digital LLC, etc.), with the team controlling 80% of the token’s supply. The remaining 20% is available for public trading through on-chain liquidity pools or centralized exchanges.

This token distribution model presents significant opportunities for manipulation: if the team were to sell off large amounts or unlock tokens early in subsequent phases, the token price could experience extreme volatility in a short period. Ordinary retail investors would find themselves at a disadvantage, as their holdings are negligible compared to those of major token holders.

Social and Media Focus

The “president issuing a token” event is unprecedented in the history of cryptocurrencies, instantly trending across both traditional and social media platforms. Global media outlets followed suit in reporting on the event, and even Wall Street financial institutions could not ignore the explosive news. Some institutions even began researching whether they should consider $TRUMP as a speculative asset. At the same time, many ordinary people also attempted to participate, hoping to profit from short-term trading opportunities.

$TRUMP Token Data

Token Issuance Information and On-Chain Overview

Before diving into the subsequent chapters of this research, let’s first review the specific issuance details, on-chain data, and community performance of the $TRUMP token. The token was deployed on the Solana blockchain on January 18, 2025, with the contract address 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN, and launched at an initial price of $0.1824. Within just 36 hours, the price surged to a historic high of $75. As of February 10, following several days of extreme volatility, the price had fallen back to around $16.

Notably, within just a few hours of its launch, the token’s market capitalization surged to $3.2 billion, only to pull back by 50% within a few days. This dramatic rise and fall starkly exemplify the typical characteristics of “meme tokens,” which are driven by public sentiment and cultural connections rather than traditional economic fundamentals.

Issuance Mechanism and Centralization Risks

Contract Security and Economic Concerns

In the “Token Ecosystem Analysis” section, the $TRUMP smart contract has passed a security audit and was rated with a “low-risk” security level, with the code being fully open-source. While no major vulnerabilities were found at the contract level, from an economic perspective, the issuance and distribution mechanism shows a high degree of centralization: 80% of the tokens are held by team members, and only 20% are available for public circulation, with a staged unlocking process.

Tip: This distribution model means that if the team or large holders decide to sell off a large portion of their tokens at specific points, ordinary retail investors or smaller funds will struggle to compete, leading to severe liquidity impacts in the market. This could trigger flash crashes or extreme price rebounds. This situation is similar to the concept of “major shareholders manipulating market expectations” in traditional economics.

Trading Data and Price Fluctuations

From January 18 to 19, during the “initial surge” period, the token’s price increased by over 40,000%. This was followed by a roughly 50% correction between January 20 and 22. From January 23 onward, the price began a steady decline. As of the time of this study, from February 4 to February 10, a “major reshuffling” occurred, with the token price fluctuating between the $15 and $20 range.

According to liquidity distribution on decentralized exchanges, Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca collectively locked in about $420 million in value, with a daily trading volume of approximately $270 million. While the token’s liquidity is not overly dependent on a single DEX (Jupiter accounts for 45%, Raydium 30%, and Orca 25%), in terms of activity, $TRUMP has already lost the high turnover rate seen during its early explosive phase.

User Demographics and Market Structure

Concentration of Holdings

Analysis of the user demographics shows that 12 large-holder addresses (representing 80.2% of the total supply) control almost all of the tokens. Additionally, 156 medium-sized addresses (holding between 0.1% and 1%) collectively own 14.5% of the tokens. While there are 142,583 retail addresses, they account for only 5.3% of the circulating supply. This structure reveals a severe “wealth concentration” phenomenon, where most retail investors are in a disadvantaged position in the market, with minimal influence on price movements.

Trader Characteristics

Data shows that approximately 23% of transactions are high-frequency trades, with these accounts quickly taking advantage of market fluctuations for arbitrage or stop-loss purposes. A further 72% of users are engaged in short-term speculation, while only 5% claim to be long-term holders. This indicates that most participants view $TRUMP as a speculative gamble rather than a sustainable investment asset.

Social Media and Community Sentiment

Public Opinion Volume and Sentiment Analysis

Statistics show that the token was mentioned approximately 52,731 times per day on Twitter, TikTok videos related to it received up to 270 million views, and the Discord community had 89,651 active users. Sentiment analysis reveals that 45% of the sentiment is positive, 25% negative, and 30% neutral. The difference between positive and negative sentiment is just 20%.

In finance, sentiment indicators are often seen as either leading or lagging signals for price movements:

  • If negative sentiment escalates, it could trigger a collective panic sell-off.
  • If positive sentiment gains focus again, the token price might experience another significant surge.

“Public Opinion — Capital Flow — Token Price” Feedback Loop

A multi-faceted analysis from the technical, economic, and community ecological perspectives shows that despite $TRUMP’s claim of high contract security, its issuance model and holding structure still amplify market sentiment, making the token’s price more vulnerable to the influence of a few large holders and short-term speculators. The ongoing social media buzz exacerbates this volatility, creating a cycle of “public opinion — capital flow — token price fluctuations.”

Reminder for Retail Investors:
In addition to tracking large on-chain transfers and unlocking progress, retail investors should closely monitor social media and sentiment indicators to avoid getting stuck at high prices or missing out on short-term price surges.

In-Depth Market Analysis

Token Technology and Ecosystem Architecture

Contract Deployment and Blockchain Choice

According to official information, $TRUMP was deployed on the Solana blockchain. Although Trump had previously shown more interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, he ultimately chose Solana, which seemed somewhat unexpected. There are rumors that the head of the President’s Advisory Committee (“Crypto Tsar”) has close ties with the Solana team, providing technical support and liquidity assistance for the project.

Solana is known for its high throughput and relatively low transaction fees, making it suitable for large-scale, concurrent trading scenarios. This provided favorable conditions for $TRUMP to attract a large volume of buy and sell orders quickly.

Trading and Liquidity Mechanisms

$TRUMP is traded through Moonshot, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and centralized platforms such as Gate.io. In the early stages, as a rush of users flocked to the token and each transaction had to be confirmed on the blockchain, many experienced transaction congestion, with some fees even much higher than expected.

Some reports indicate that the large volume of on-chain transactions in the early stages generated substantial transaction fee revenue for the Trump team. There are suspicions that this may have been part of a pre-designed “fee extraction” strategy, as the team might share revenue with platforms or mining pools, although the specifics have not been publicly disclosed.

Related Projects

Melania Trump followed suit by launching $MELANIA, further linking the Trump family’s image to the cryptocurrency space. Additionally, the Trump family had previously launched multiple themed NFTs (non-fungible tokens). The industry speculates that in the future, more family members or “trusted associates” may release new tokens, potentially even forming a broader “Trump Metaverse” ecosystem.

Tip: NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) differ from ordinary cryptocurrencies in that they represent unique digital assets, such as artwork or collectible cards, which cannot be exchanged one-to-one like BTC or ETH. However, like cryptocurrencies, NFTs are also based on blockchain smart contracts and their pricing depends on market interest and scarcity.

Market Performance and Price Frenzy

Day 1 (1.17–1.18): “Early Adopters” Reap the Rewards

Within hours of $TRUMP’s issuance, the price rapidly surged from under $1 to $14–$23, attracting significant attention. Professional traders familiar with blockchain trends were able to monitor the smart contract address and capture the project early, purchasing large amounts of cheap tokens before it officially launched. Some achieved several, even tens of times, profits within just half a day.

The community speculated, “Was Trump’s account hacked? This is absurd.” However, the official team refrained from any clarification, leading many to believe that the project came from Trump’s team, further fueling speculative enthusiasm.

Peak (1.19): “Exchange Listing” Triggers Final Surge

Mainstream exchanges like Gate.io announced the listing of $TRUMP for spot trading, allowing many U.S. retail investors and traditional stock market traders easier access to the token. Driven by buying pressure, the price soared to the $60–$75 range, and the fully diluted market cap briefly surpassed $75 billion.

In just two days, over 400 addresses on the blockchain were reported to have made profits exceeding $1 million. Meanwhile, many new users entered at the peak price, only to face the subsequent crash.

It is important to note that when a token lists on a large centralized exchange (CEX), it often signifies a significant increase in market depth and transaction volume. However, this also marks the “exit opportunity” for early players, as they can sell the cheap tokens they acquired on-chain to newcomers on the exchange.

Major Correction (1.20–1.21): “Melania’s Gun” + Fund Outflows

At this time, Melania Trump also launched $MELANIA, attracting some funds away from $TRUMP. Additionally, the Trump team might have sold off at the peak, causing $TRUMP’s price to plummet by 50% to $35–$40 in just a few hours. Market sentiment quickly shifted from euphoria to panic. Retail investors who had entered early were frustrated, feeling they had been “taken in by the President,” and discontent and skepticism surged within the community.

Stable Phase (1.25–2.12): “Continued Bottoming”

During this phase, the price of $TRUMP gradually stabilized, fluctuating between $26 and $16. On-chain data showed that from January 25 to February 12, the daily volatility of the token dropped sharply from over 100% to around 30%, while daily trading volume remained stable at $150 million to $200 million. During this period, high-frequency trading activity noticeably decreased, with only about 15% of accounts engaging in frequent trades, while the vast majority of retail accounts saw their positions stagnate. Approximately 78% of FOMO investors failed to exit in time, showing they were now stuck in a losing position.

Additionally, social media sentiment experienced a significant pullback: during the early hype, the gap between positive and negative sentiment was just 20%, while during this phase, positive sentiment remained at around 45%, and negative sentiment rose to about 40%. This indicates that the market transitioned from speculative fervor to more rational scrutiny. Overall, while $TRUMP did not deviate entirely from the typical “Meme coin pump followed by sharp declines” path, the data suggests that the market was entering a period of adjustment, with a more balanced flow of funds and investor behavior, leading to a gradual return to more rational price fluctuations.

On-Chain Data and Fund Movements

Whale vs. Retail Ratio

According to on-chain statistics, 80% of $TRUMP tokens are held by the project team or associated addresses. In comparison, a significant portion of the remaining 20% is concentrated in the hands of a few large holders. As a result, the overall market control is extremely high. The majority of retail investors hold very small amounts, and whenever the major holders take action, the price tends to fluctuate dramatically.

Many latecomer retail investors bought in at significantly higher prices than the initial issuance price and are now “stuck at the peak.” Some have held their tokens hoping to double their investment, while others have reluctantly cut their losses.

Asia vs. U.S.: Time Zone Differences and First-Mover Advantage

When the $TRUMP contract was announced, it was daytime in Asia but late at night in the U.S., creating a difference in information flow. Asian traders had time to jump in during the first wave, while U.S. East Coast investors saw the news in the morning when the price had already surged several times. Data shows that nearly half of the addresses that made over a million dollars in profit during the early stages were from Chinese-speaking communities.

Unlike traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, with blockchain transactions happening simultaneously across the globe. Time zone differences often determine the outcome in short-term market movements—Asia’s morning usually corresponds to the late night in the Americas, and vice versa. Traders who can “monitor the market longer” often gain a first-mover advantage.

Trading Volume and “Water Sellers”

Platforms like Moonshot, specializing in Meme coins, once ranked highly in the North American app download charts. OTC (over-the-counter) trading also became unusually active. Many newcomers, struggling to understand the process of using on-chain wallets and the exchange mechanisms, sought help from “experts.” This created an opportunity for others to profit by offering “water selling” services. These individuals made money by charging a fee for teaching others how to buy $TRUMP, raking in substantial sums in a short period.

Tip: The term “water seller” comes from the gold rush era, referring to those who profited by selling shovels and supplies to miners. In the crypto world, the analogy holds: when many retail investors rush into the market, those providing training, technical services, or token listing evaluations can make significant profits. Their earnings are less dependent on the rise and fall of tokens and more on the “information asymmetry.”

Social Impact and Cultural Analysis

In Just 48 Hours: The “Adventure Narrative” of a Zero-Sum Speculative Game

Experienced on-chain players are often equipped with monitoring tools and idle capital, enabling them to quickly enter a promising project and exit at the peak to lock in profits. Some even boast about making returns of multiples or even tens of times their initial investment on social media, sparking further participation from ordinary investors. This creates a classic “second-tier, third-tier buyer” chain of reactions.

Many are afraid of missing out on the next potential 100x opportunity, going as far as mortgaging their homes, selling their cars, or liquidating other assets to raise funds and enter the market. The “get-rich-quick” mentality rapidly spread within the community.

Tip: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) refers to the anxiety people experience about missing out on an opportunity, which leads them to chase rising prices blindly. Meme coin markets often capitalize on this psychology to drive explosive surges, only to see a sudden pullback afterward.

Many first-time cryptocurrency participants lack professional trading skills or blockchain knowledge. After rushing in, they either find themselves stuck at the top by chasing high prices or become bewildered by the market’s wild fluctuations. Many assume that a “presidential coin” is inherently backed by official endorsement, underestimating the possibility of the project team selling off their holdings at any time.

Traditional and crypto media outlets have heavily focused on $TRUMP, often reporting on it with mockery or astonishment, while serious discussions have been relatively scarce. Industry leaders, such as those from Bitcoin Magazine and Messari, have openly questioned whether Trump is exploiting his influence to profit indirectly by leveraging blockchain technology. This undermines the confidence of some retail investors and casts a shadow on the credibility of the crypto industry as a whole.

Politics, Conspiracy, and the Dark Psychological Side

Political Motivation or Pure Exploitation?

Some perspectives suggest that the Trump family may not be solely driven by money. They might use cryptocurrency as a testing ground to see whether the U.S. financial system and regulators can tolerate such a high-profile “political token.” It is also possible that this is a scheme between the president and a few capital giants to quickly extract liquidity from the market.

On social media, some have called for legal action against Trump, accusing him of using his political position to deceive the public.

The Re-emergence of America’s “Gilded Age”?

American history has seen several periods of political and business collusion and rampant wealth accumulation, often called the “Gilded Age.” Many media commentators are drawing parallels between $TRUMP and the speculative frenzies of those times. The key difference is that, this time, the crypto assets lack the regulatory safety valves of traditional finance, and their spread and impact are far more intense.

The Loss of Morality and Legitimacy

The fact that the president has begun extracting from global retail investors before even being officially sworn in has led many to question whether the U.S. Constitution or laws impose enough restrictions on the president’s power. If the highest office can freely raise funds under the guise of blockchain, what boundaries remain between “political corruption” and “financial fraud”?

Risks and Opportunities Analysis

Major Risks

Legal and Regulatory Risks

If the U.S. Congress, the SEC, or the judicial authorities intervene in an investigation, they may order exchanges to delist $TRUMP or freeze related wallets. If the team is found guilty of insider trading or conflicts of interest, the project team and investors could face substantial losses. There is no precedent for a “presidential token,” and the legal vacuum surrounding this situation introduces higher uncertainty.

Centralized Token Holdings and Potential Manipulation

The team and associated large holders control 80% of the tokens. If they decide to sell, they could cause a market cap evaporation of billions of dollars within hours. Ordinary investors find it difficult to predict when a large dump might occur.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the lack of transparency regarding the team’s plans is like “flying blind,” which could result in disastrous outcomes for traders.

Market Sentiment and Confidence Collapse

Meme tokens primarily rely on community confidence and sentiment. If the public opinion shifts or new hot tokens emerge, the market’s enthusiasm could rapidly decline, causing a stampede-like price drop.

Derivative tokens such as $MELANIA could potentially “siphon” value from $TRUMP, with investors frequently switching between tokens, destabilizing the entire sector.

Development Opportunities

Traffic Surge and New User Influx

The popularity of $TRUMP has attracted many traditional finance users and newcomers to the blockchain ecosystem. Some may continue exploring DeFi, NFTs, and other broader fields after short-term speculation, which could bring more innovation and opportunities for practical applications in the crypto industry.

Accelerated Regulation and Legal Compliance Process

This project’s controversy and high profile might force U.S. legislators to address the legality of political figures engaging in cryptocurrency projects. It could also lead to a faster clarification of regulatory rules for the crypto market.

If compliance measures are implemented, it could help clean up the industry in the long term, eliminating scams and Ponzi schemes and improving overall quality.

Continued Expansion of the Meme Token Track

Politicians and business figures might follow suit by “issuing tokens,” further propelling the meme token space’s growth. Investors who can seize the early opportunities of hot topics might still see substantial short-term gains. However, with the rapid spread of celebrity influence and social media, new token bubbles may emerge and collapse much faster.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Strategy (1–3 Months)

High-Frequency Trading and On-Chain Monitoring

To engage with tokens like $TRUMP or other similar meme coins, it is essential to have professional on-chain monitoring capabilities to track whale addresses and the team’s token transfer activity in real time. Quick buy or sell decisions must be made when large transfers or abnormal sell orders are detected. Below are common monitoring methods and tools:

Blockchain Explorers:

  • Solscan / Solana Explorer (for $TRUMP on Solana)
  • Etherscan (if there are cross-chain bridges or related contracts on Ethereum)

By entering the contract address or whale wallet address, you can monitor transaction dynamics and balance changes in real-time.

Professional Data Analysis Platforms:

  • Nansen: Offers on-chain label analysis, allowing users to identify and track “whales,” “smart money,” and other significant addresses.
  • Dune Analytics: Users can customize dashboards to visualize and analyze specific contracts or addresses.
  • DeBank: Aggregates multi-chain asset information, making it easier to monitor large holders’ positions and fund flows.

Social Media and Alert Bots:

  • Twitter / Telegram Alert Bots (e.g., Whale Alert): These bots instantly push notifications for large transfers, unlock events, and other signals, helping investors quickly identify potential market dumps or pumps.

Setting Stop-Loss and Take-Profit

Blindly chasing high prices can lead to flash crashes, so it’s crucial to set and strictly adhere to a stop-loss and take-profit strategy in advance to avoid being unable to exit when trading volume drops drastically. The following strategies can be considered:

Price Triggers:

  • Take-Profit Point: If the price rises by 50%–100% after purchase, consider selling part of the position in batches or all at once to lock in profits.
  • Stop-Loss Point: If the price drops 10%–20% (or more) from the buying point, automatically reduce the position or exit to prevent being deeply stuck in a loss.

Time Triggers:

  • If a significant event (such as team unlocks or macroeconomic bad news) is expected within a short period (e.g., 3–7 days), consider reducing the position and waiting to observe.

Position Management:

  • Only allocate 5%–10% of total capital to high-risk assets like meme coins to avoid excessive volatility on overall funds.

Comprehensive Information Assessment:

In addition to monitoring on-chain large transfers and unlock schedules, keep a close eye on the following factors:

  • Social Media Activity and Sentiment
    Is there a sharp decline or increase in activity on platforms like Twitter, Discord, or Telegram?
    Are major influencers (KOLs) shifting towards a bearish or bullish outlook?
  • Team Announcements and External News
    Has the team announced new unlock or burn plans?
    Are there any negative news or regulatory pressures related to the project?
  • Market Environment
    Are mainstream coins (e.g., BTC, ETH) in a period of volatility or downturn, which could affect the risk appetite of investors?
    Are other new meme coins causing a “siphoning effect,” leading to a loss of funds for $TRUMP?

Small Positions, Quick In and Out

Since $TRUMP lacks substantial use cases and its price is mainly driven by political news and community sentiment, investing only a small amount of funds that can be affordably lost is advisable. Focus on swing trading and avoid unrealistic expectations of the project’s intrinsic value. The “100x myth” often cannot last for long.

Mid-to-Long-Term Strategy (3–12 months)

Monitor Team Unlocks and Regulatory Trends

The ability of the team to unlock tokens quickly or conduct large-scale off-market sales is crucial for determining future market performance. If the U.S. government initiates investigations or imposes regulatory constraints, the price may remain depressed for an extended period. Investors should closely follow the relevant policy developments and carefully assess the holding period.

Diversification and Combining with Value Coins

For those unfamiliar with the meme coin space, it’s advisable to allocate most assets to relatively stable blockchain projects like BTC and ETH, while treating meme coins as a “high-risk side track” for experimentation.

With meme coins constantly emerging, it’s important to stay vigilant, gather information, and manage risks effectively to respond to sudden market fluctuations.

Outlook and Reflections

Industry Trends: From Speculative Performances to Ecosystem Reshuffling

Meme Coin Super-Cycle and Retail Investor Frenzy

$TRUMP has the potential to solidify further retail investors’ trust in the “celebrity effect,” possibly encouraging more politicians to follow suit and launch their own tokens. However, high-frequency speculative trading and extreme price fluctuations can quickly lead to a loss of enthusiasm, causing the industry to reshuffle and differentiate.

Accelerated Collision between U.S. Government and Crypto Regulation

With the President personally issuing a token, the U.S. government is now forced to confront a new reality: How can officials or candidates profit within the virtual asset space? How do legislative or executive orders apply? This could lead to stricter control over capital flows, or prompt more institutions to scrutinize the legality and compliance of crypto projects.

Re-thinking DeFi Ecosystem and Financial Innovation

Cryptocurrency finance has the potential to break traditional financial barriers, but a few can also exploit it. Extreme cases like $TRUMP have driven the industry to reflect on important questions: Can decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) improve information disclosure? Can contract audits prevent abuse? How can we protect the public from being ruthlessly exploited in speculative waves?

Political, Economic, and Social Triple Impact

Political Aspect

The potential conflict of interest between the Trump family and the presidency could spark new lawsuits. Whether the “monetization of the presidential position” affects the global credibility of U.S. politics remains an unresolved question. The issuance of a token by a sitting president challenges traditional political norms and raises concerns about the abuse of political power for personal financial gain.

Economic Aspect

In a very short period, significant capital shifted from other crypto assets to $TRUMP, leading to a “vampire effect” on mainstream and altcoins. If retail investors suffer heavy losses, it could trigger a chain reaction, diminishing overall investment and consumer confidence in the market. This shift could affect the broader crypto ecosystem, as well as the willingness of the general public to engage with cryptocurrency.

Social Aspect

Social media-driven group hysteria and cognitive biases were amplified once again. Many people now view the crypto industry as more deeply entrenched as a “speculative bubble,” reinforcing negative perceptions. Additionally, the tolerance for public officials monetizing their influence has been tested in this instance. This event forces society to grapple with the ethical implications of political figures utilizing their position to benefit financially from emerging technologies.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The rise and subsequent crash of $TRUMP highlights the potential of meme tokens to trigger unprecedented capital flows, particularly when supported by political figures. However, it also underscores the glaring lack of self-regulation and ethical standards within the cryptocurrency industry. With the U.S. president personally launching the token, retail investors were trapped by blind trust at high prices, leading to a significant transfer of funds to a few large holders. The Trump family has since been labeled with harsh terms such as “pump and dump,” “extracting liquidity,” and “profit-seeking.”

In light of this speculative frenzy, the key challenge is maintaining rationality and addressing issues of ethics and compliance at the government level, which remain pressing concerns for the crypto world.

Research Recommendations:

  1. Strengthen Compliance Framework for Political Figures Issuing Tokens
    Regulatory bodies or industry associations should be encouraged to establish a clear framework for political figures’ involvement in crypto projects. This would prevent public officials from exploiting their positions for personal gain or engaging in conflicts of interest.
  2. Use of DAO Mechanisms to Enhance Transparency
    Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) should implement community-driven risk disclosure and information-sharing tools when launching “political tokens,” thereby reducing information asymmetry for retail investors.
  3. Investors Must Recognize the High-Risk Nature of Meme Tokens
    While meme tokens may offer potential short-term profits, their lack of fundamental value makes them prone to extreme volatility. Investors must practice strict risk management, set clear stop-loss levels, and maintain realistic expectations.

This section closes with an emphasis on regulatory clarity and transparency, particularly when political figures are involved in crypto projects. It also highlights the volatile nature of meme tokens, urging investors to adopt caution and be mindful of the associated risks.

Author: Mia
Translator: Piper
Reviewer(s): Ember、Edward、Elisa
Translation Reviewer(s): Ashely、Joyce
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.io.
* This article may not be reproduced, transmitted or copied without referencing Gate.io. Contravention is an infringement of Copyright Act and may be subject to legal action.

$TRUMP Token Full Timeline and Warnings for Ordinary Investors

Advanced2/28/2025, 10:15:43 AM
The launch of the $TRUMP token triggered an unprecedented meme coin frenzy, driving the token price to soar before rapidly falling back, trapping retail investors in a speculative pit. This article outlines the full timeline of the $TRUMP token and explores the risk warnings for ordinary investors, as well as the impact of this political and financial frenzy on the crypto industry.

In the Web3 era, “meme tokens” have become a concentrated exhibition of community sentiment and speculative psychology. In January 2025, just before taking office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced the launch of his personal meme coin, $TRUMP. This move led to a massive surge in the token’s price, causing a stir across global social, financial, and political arenas. Within just 48 hours, a small number of early blockchain adopters locked in huge profits, while more following retail investors found themselves stuck buying at the peak, experiencing the intense highs and devastating lows brought about by celebrity influence and rapid speculation.

Compared to any previous meme coin mania, the “U.S. President launching a token” has unprecedented controversy and impact across political, legal, ethical, and socio-cultural dimensions. In this commotion, we witnessed the victory of speculative capital, but also saw the awkward reality where traditional financial systems and governmental ethics were placed under intense scrutiny.

Research Background and Market Overview

The Rise of Meme Tokens and the Evolution of the Web3 Ecosystem

Meme: From Internet Memes to Financial Products

Since the birth of internet culture, many memes and subcultural symbols have emerged. These symbols gain explosive social influence due to their humor, viral nature, or ease of dissemination. Some “memes” are continually shared and even modified on forums and social media, gradually evolving into popular symbols within communities.

With the development of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi), the combination of “Meme + Token” successfully ties culture to finance, giving rise to a series of phenomenally popular projects such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. These projects do not necessarily have traditional technological support or practical applications; instead, they rely on the spontaneous enthusiasm of online communities and celebrity endorsements to create extreme market reactions in a short period.

It is important to note that blockchain is a decentralized database or ledger, where every transaction is jointly verified and recorded by multiple nodes in the network. Meme tokens do not provide functions such as payments or settlements on this ledger. Instead, they act more as a “ticket” or “symbol,” with their value entirely determined by community consensus.

The Evolution and Challenges of the Web3 Ecosystem

Web3 has given ordinary people more opportunities to control financial assets and data, making it easier for small teams or individuals to create breakout projects. Anyone can publish their own token based on blockchain smart contracts. As long as they find enough supporters or speculators, they may experience a “big bang” quickly. However, issues such as the lack of regulation, frequent bubbles, and varying project quality cannot be ignored.

The sudden emergence of Trump Coin ($TRUMP) can be seen as a fierce collision between the Web3 ecosystem and traditional political power. This time, it was not a small startup team, but a globally influential political figure stepping into the fray. The market’s attention exceeded typical meme coins, sparking more legal and ethical discussions in the global public discourse.

The Launch of $TRUMP and Core Highlights

Launch Time: The Intersection of Politics and Capital

The launch was set for the evening of January 17, 2025 (Eastern Time), just before Donald Trump was to assume office as President of the United States officially. This timing was widely interpreted as a “special window” to raise funds or accumulate wealth before the U.S. Constitution’s salary regulations took effect on him. The political identity and personal fame associated with the project allowed it to rapidly “go viral” without much promotional effort. In a short period, trading volume and media attention surged. According to media reports, from traditional financial circles to street-level discussions, people everywhere were talking about the astonishing event of a “president issuing a token.”

This was because cryptocurrency issuance does not require complex administrative approval. As long as a smart contract is deployed on the blockchain, tokens can be quickly pushed to market. Therefore, figures like Trump can technically create a token and sell it to the public quickly, should they choose to do so.

Team and Token Structure

$TRUMP was jointly launched by Trump family-affiliated companies (such as Fight Fight Fight LLC, CIC Digital LLC, etc.), with the team controlling 80% of the token’s supply. The remaining 20% is available for public trading through on-chain liquidity pools or centralized exchanges.

This token distribution model presents significant opportunities for manipulation: if the team were to sell off large amounts or unlock tokens early in subsequent phases, the token price could experience extreme volatility in a short period. Ordinary retail investors would find themselves at a disadvantage, as their holdings are negligible compared to those of major token holders.

Social and Media Focus

The “president issuing a token” event is unprecedented in the history of cryptocurrencies, instantly trending across both traditional and social media platforms. Global media outlets followed suit in reporting on the event, and even Wall Street financial institutions could not ignore the explosive news. Some institutions even began researching whether they should consider $TRUMP as a speculative asset. At the same time, many ordinary people also attempted to participate, hoping to profit from short-term trading opportunities.

$TRUMP Token Data

Token Issuance Information and On-Chain Overview

Before diving into the subsequent chapters of this research, let’s first review the specific issuance details, on-chain data, and community performance of the $TRUMP token. The token was deployed on the Solana blockchain on January 18, 2025, with the contract address 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN, and launched at an initial price of $0.1824. Within just 36 hours, the price surged to a historic high of $75. As of February 10, following several days of extreme volatility, the price had fallen back to around $16.

Notably, within just a few hours of its launch, the token’s market capitalization surged to $3.2 billion, only to pull back by 50% within a few days. This dramatic rise and fall starkly exemplify the typical characteristics of “meme tokens,” which are driven by public sentiment and cultural connections rather than traditional economic fundamentals.

Issuance Mechanism and Centralization Risks

Contract Security and Economic Concerns

In the “Token Ecosystem Analysis” section, the $TRUMP smart contract has passed a security audit and was rated with a “low-risk” security level, with the code being fully open-source. While no major vulnerabilities were found at the contract level, from an economic perspective, the issuance and distribution mechanism shows a high degree of centralization: 80% of the tokens are held by team members, and only 20% are available for public circulation, with a staged unlocking process.

Tip: This distribution model means that if the team or large holders decide to sell off a large portion of their tokens at specific points, ordinary retail investors or smaller funds will struggle to compete, leading to severe liquidity impacts in the market. This could trigger flash crashes or extreme price rebounds. This situation is similar to the concept of “major shareholders manipulating market expectations” in traditional economics.

Trading Data and Price Fluctuations

From January 18 to 19, during the “initial surge” period, the token’s price increased by over 40,000%. This was followed by a roughly 50% correction between January 20 and 22. From January 23 onward, the price began a steady decline. As of the time of this study, from February 4 to February 10, a “major reshuffling” occurred, with the token price fluctuating between the $15 and $20 range.

According to liquidity distribution on decentralized exchanges, Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca collectively locked in about $420 million in value, with a daily trading volume of approximately $270 million. While the token’s liquidity is not overly dependent on a single DEX (Jupiter accounts for 45%, Raydium 30%, and Orca 25%), in terms of activity, $TRUMP has already lost the high turnover rate seen during its early explosive phase.

User Demographics and Market Structure

Concentration of Holdings

Analysis of the user demographics shows that 12 large-holder addresses (representing 80.2% of the total supply) control almost all of the tokens. Additionally, 156 medium-sized addresses (holding between 0.1% and 1%) collectively own 14.5% of the tokens. While there are 142,583 retail addresses, they account for only 5.3% of the circulating supply. This structure reveals a severe “wealth concentration” phenomenon, where most retail investors are in a disadvantaged position in the market, with minimal influence on price movements.

Trader Characteristics

Data shows that approximately 23% of transactions are high-frequency trades, with these accounts quickly taking advantage of market fluctuations for arbitrage or stop-loss purposes. A further 72% of users are engaged in short-term speculation, while only 5% claim to be long-term holders. This indicates that most participants view $TRUMP as a speculative gamble rather than a sustainable investment asset.

Social Media and Community Sentiment

Public Opinion Volume and Sentiment Analysis

Statistics show that the token was mentioned approximately 52,731 times per day on Twitter, TikTok videos related to it received up to 270 million views, and the Discord community had 89,651 active users. Sentiment analysis reveals that 45% of the sentiment is positive, 25% negative, and 30% neutral. The difference between positive and negative sentiment is just 20%.

In finance, sentiment indicators are often seen as either leading or lagging signals for price movements:

  • If negative sentiment escalates, it could trigger a collective panic sell-off.
  • If positive sentiment gains focus again, the token price might experience another significant surge.

“Public Opinion — Capital Flow — Token Price” Feedback Loop

A multi-faceted analysis from the technical, economic, and community ecological perspectives shows that despite $TRUMP’s claim of high contract security, its issuance model and holding structure still amplify market sentiment, making the token’s price more vulnerable to the influence of a few large holders and short-term speculators. The ongoing social media buzz exacerbates this volatility, creating a cycle of “public opinion — capital flow — token price fluctuations.”

Reminder for Retail Investors:
In addition to tracking large on-chain transfers and unlocking progress, retail investors should closely monitor social media and sentiment indicators to avoid getting stuck at high prices or missing out on short-term price surges.

In-Depth Market Analysis

Token Technology and Ecosystem Architecture

Contract Deployment and Blockchain Choice

According to official information, $TRUMP was deployed on the Solana blockchain. Although Trump had previously shown more interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, he ultimately chose Solana, which seemed somewhat unexpected. There are rumors that the head of the President’s Advisory Committee (“Crypto Tsar”) has close ties with the Solana team, providing technical support and liquidity assistance for the project.

Solana is known for its high throughput and relatively low transaction fees, making it suitable for large-scale, concurrent trading scenarios. This provided favorable conditions for $TRUMP to attract a large volume of buy and sell orders quickly.

Trading and Liquidity Mechanisms

$TRUMP is traded through Moonshot, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and centralized platforms such as Gate.io. In the early stages, as a rush of users flocked to the token and each transaction had to be confirmed on the blockchain, many experienced transaction congestion, with some fees even much higher than expected.

Some reports indicate that the large volume of on-chain transactions in the early stages generated substantial transaction fee revenue for the Trump team. There are suspicions that this may have been part of a pre-designed “fee extraction” strategy, as the team might share revenue with platforms or mining pools, although the specifics have not been publicly disclosed.

Related Projects

Melania Trump followed suit by launching $MELANIA, further linking the Trump family’s image to the cryptocurrency space. Additionally, the Trump family had previously launched multiple themed NFTs (non-fungible tokens). The industry speculates that in the future, more family members or “trusted associates” may release new tokens, potentially even forming a broader “Trump Metaverse” ecosystem.

Tip: NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) differ from ordinary cryptocurrencies in that they represent unique digital assets, such as artwork or collectible cards, which cannot be exchanged one-to-one like BTC or ETH. However, like cryptocurrencies, NFTs are also based on blockchain smart contracts and their pricing depends on market interest and scarcity.

Market Performance and Price Frenzy

Day 1 (1.17–1.18): “Early Adopters” Reap the Rewards

Within hours of $TRUMP’s issuance, the price rapidly surged from under $1 to $14–$23, attracting significant attention. Professional traders familiar with blockchain trends were able to monitor the smart contract address and capture the project early, purchasing large amounts of cheap tokens before it officially launched. Some achieved several, even tens of times, profits within just half a day.

The community speculated, “Was Trump’s account hacked? This is absurd.” However, the official team refrained from any clarification, leading many to believe that the project came from Trump’s team, further fueling speculative enthusiasm.

Peak (1.19): “Exchange Listing” Triggers Final Surge

Mainstream exchanges like Gate.io announced the listing of $TRUMP for spot trading, allowing many U.S. retail investors and traditional stock market traders easier access to the token. Driven by buying pressure, the price soared to the $60–$75 range, and the fully diluted market cap briefly surpassed $75 billion.

In just two days, over 400 addresses on the blockchain were reported to have made profits exceeding $1 million. Meanwhile, many new users entered at the peak price, only to face the subsequent crash.

It is important to note that when a token lists on a large centralized exchange (CEX), it often signifies a significant increase in market depth and transaction volume. However, this also marks the “exit opportunity” for early players, as they can sell the cheap tokens they acquired on-chain to newcomers on the exchange.

Major Correction (1.20–1.21): “Melania’s Gun” + Fund Outflows

At this time, Melania Trump also launched $MELANIA, attracting some funds away from $TRUMP. Additionally, the Trump team might have sold off at the peak, causing $TRUMP’s price to plummet by 50% to $35–$40 in just a few hours. Market sentiment quickly shifted from euphoria to panic. Retail investors who had entered early were frustrated, feeling they had been “taken in by the President,” and discontent and skepticism surged within the community.

Stable Phase (1.25–2.12): “Continued Bottoming”

During this phase, the price of $TRUMP gradually stabilized, fluctuating between $26 and $16. On-chain data showed that from January 25 to February 12, the daily volatility of the token dropped sharply from over 100% to around 30%, while daily trading volume remained stable at $150 million to $200 million. During this period, high-frequency trading activity noticeably decreased, with only about 15% of accounts engaging in frequent trades, while the vast majority of retail accounts saw their positions stagnate. Approximately 78% of FOMO investors failed to exit in time, showing they were now stuck in a losing position.

Additionally, social media sentiment experienced a significant pullback: during the early hype, the gap between positive and negative sentiment was just 20%, while during this phase, positive sentiment remained at around 45%, and negative sentiment rose to about 40%. This indicates that the market transitioned from speculative fervor to more rational scrutiny. Overall, while $TRUMP did not deviate entirely from the typical “Meme coin pump followed by sharp declines” path, the data suggests that the market was entering a period of adjustment, with a more balanced flow of funds and investor behavior, leading to a gradual return to more rational price fluctuations.

On-Chain Data and Fund Movements

Whale vs. Retail Ratio

According to on-chain statistics, 80% of $TRUMP tokens are held by the project team or associated addresses. In comparison, a significant portion of the remaining 20% is concentrated in the hands of a few large holders. As a result, the overall market control is extremely high. The majority of retail investors hold very small amounts, and whenever the major holders take action, the price tends to fluctuate dramatically.

Many latecomer retail investors bought in at significantly higher prices than the initial issuance price and are now “stuck at the peak.” Some have held their tokens hoping to double their investment, while others have reluctantly cut their losses.

Asia vs. U.S.: Time Zone Differences and First-Mover Advantage

When the $TRUMP contract was announced, it was daytime in Asia but late at night in the U.S., creating a difference in information flow. Asian traders had time to jump in during the first wave, while U.S. East Coast investors saw the news in the morning when the price had already surged several times. Data shows that nearly half of the addresses that made over a million dollars in profit during the early stages were from Chinese-speaking communities.

Unlike traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, with blockchain transactions happening simultaneously across the globe. Time zone differences often determine the outcome in short-term market movements—Asia’s morning usually corresponds to the late night in the Americas, and vice versa. Traders who can “monitor the market longer” often gain a first-mover advantage.

Trading Volume and “Water Sellers”

Platforms like Moonshot, specializing in Meme coins, once ranked highly in the North American app download charts. OTC (over-the-counter) trading also became unusually active. Many newcomers, struggling to understand the process of using on-chain wallets and the exchange mechanisms, sought help from “experts.” This created an opportunity for others to profit by offering “water selling” services. These individuals made money by charging a fee for teaching others how to buy $TRUMP, raking in substantial sums in a short period.

Tip: The term “water seller” comes from the gold rush era, referring to those who profited by selling shovels and supplies to miners. In the crypto world, the analogy holds: when many retail investors rush into the market, those providing training, technical services, or token listing evaluations can make significant profits. Their earnings are less dependent on the rise and fall of tokens and more on the “information asymmetry.”

Social Impact and Cultural Analysis

In Just 48 Hours: The “Adventure Narrative” of a Zero-Sum Speculative Game

Experienced on-chain players are often equipped with monitoring tools and idle capital, enabling them to quickly enter a promising project and exit at the peak to lock in profits. Some even boast about making returns of multiples or even tens of times their initial investment on social media, sparking further participation from ordinary investors. This creates a classic “second-tier, third-tier buyer” chain of reactions.

Many are afraid of missing out on the next potential 100x opportunity, going as far as mortgaging their homes, selling their cars, or liquidating other assets to raise funds and enter the market. The “get-rich-quick” mentality rapidly spread within the community.

Tip: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) refers to the anxiety people experience about missing out on an opportunity, which leads them to chase rising prices blindly. Meme coin markets often capitalize on this psychology to drive explosive surges, only to see a sudden pullback afterward.

Many first-time cryptocurrency participants lack professional trading skills or blockchain knowledge. After rushing in, they either find themselves stuck at the top by chasing high prices or become bewildered by the market’s wild fluctuations. Many assume that a “presidential coin” is inherently backed by official endorsement, underestimating the possibility of the project team selling off their holdings at any time.

Traditional and crypto media outlets have heavily focused on $TRUMP, often reporting on it with mockery or astonishment, while serious discussions have been relatively scarce. Industry leaders, such as those from Bitcoin Magazine and Messari, have openly questioned whether Trump is exploiting his influence to profit indirectly by leveraging blockchain technology. This undermines the confidence of some retail investors and casts a shadow on the credibility of the crypto industry as a whole.

Politics, Conspiracy, and the Dark Psychological Side

Political Motivation or Pure Exploitation?

Some perspectives suggest that the Trump family may not be solely driven by money. They might use cryptocurrency as a testing ground to see whether the U.S. financial system and regulators can tolerate such a high-profile “political token.” It is also possible that this is a scheme between the president and a few capital giants to quickly extract liquidity from the market.

On social media, some have called for legal action against Trump, accusing him of using his political position to deceive the public.

The Re-emergence of America’s “Gilded Age”?

American history has seen several periods of political and business collusion and rampant wealth accumulation, often called the “Gilded Age.” Many media commentators are drawing parallels between $TRUMP and the speculative frenzies of those times. The key difference is that, this time, the crypto assets lack the regulatory safety valves of traditional finance, and their spread and impact are far more intense.

The Loss of Morality and Legitimacy

The fact that the president has begun extracting from global retail investors before even being officially sworn in has led many to question whether the U.S. Constitution or laws impose enough restrictions on the president’s power. If the highest office can freely raise funds under the guise of blockchain, what boundaries remain between “political corruption” and “financial fraud”?

Risks and Opportunities Analysis

Major Risks

Legal and Regulatory Risks

If the U.S. Congress, the SEC, or the judicial authorities intervene in an investigation, they may order exchanges to delist $TRUMP or freeze related wallets. If the team is found guilty of insider trading or conflicts of interest, the project team and investors could face substantial losses. There is no precedent for a “presidential token,” and the legal vacuum surrounding this situation introduces higher uncertainty.

Centralized Token Holdings and Potential Manipulation

The team and associated large holders control 80% of the tokens. If they decide to sell, they could cause a market cap evaporation of billions of dollars within hours. Ordinary investors find it difficult to predict when a large dump might occur.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the lack of transparency regarding the team’s plans is like “flying blind,” which could result in disastrous outcomes for traders.

Market Sentiment and Confidence Collapse

Meme tokens primarily rely on community confidence and sentiment. If the public opinion shifts or new hot tokens emerge, the market’s enthusiasm could rapidly decline, causing a stampede-like price drop.

Derivative tokens such as $MELANIA could potentially “siphon” value from $TRUMP, with investors frequently switching between tokens, destabilizing the entire sector.

Development Opportunities

Traffic Surge and New User Influx

The popularity of $TRUMP has attracted many traditional finance users and newcomers to the blockchain ecosystem. Some may continue exploring DeFi, NFTs, and other broader fields after short-term speculation, which could bring more innovation and opportunities for practical applications in the crypto industry.

Accelerated Regulation and Legal Compliance Process

This project’s controversy and high profile might force U.S. legislators to address the legality of political figures engaging in cryptocurrency projects. It could also lead to a faster clarification of regulatory rules for the crypto market.

If compliance measures are implemented, it could help clean up the industry in the long term, eliminating scams and Ponzi schemes and improving overall quality.

Continued Expansion of the Meme Token Track

Politicians and business figures might follow suit by “issuing tokens,” further propelling the meme token space’s growth. Investors who can seize the early opportunities of hot topics might still see substantial short-term gains. However, with the rapid spread of celebrity influence and social media, new token bubbles may emerge and collapse much faster.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Strategy (1–3 Months)

High-Frequency Trading and On-Chain Monitoring

To engage with tokens like $TRUMP or other similar meme coins, it is essential to have professional on-chain monitoring capabilities to track whale addresses and the team’s token transfer activity in real time. Quick buy or sell decisions must be made when large transfers or abnormal sell orders are detected. Below are common monitoring methods and tools:

Blockchain Explorers:

  • Solscan / Solana Explorer (for $TRUMP on Solana)
  • Etherscan (if there are cross-chain bridges or related contracts on Ethereum)

By entering the contract address or whale wallet address, you can monitor transaction dynamics and balance changes in real-time.

Professional Data Analysis Platforms:

  • Nansen: Offers on-chain label analysis, allowing users to identify and track “whales,” “smart money,” and other significant addresses.
  • Dune Analytics: Users can customize dashboards to visualize and analyze specific contracts or addresses.
  • DeBank: Aggregates multi-chain asset information, making it easier to monitor large holders’ positions and fund flows.

Social Media and Alert Bots:

  • Twitter / Telegram Alert Bots (e.g., Whale Alert): These bots instantly push notifications for large transfers, unlock events, and other signals, helping investors quickly identify potential market dumps or pumps.

Setting Stop-Loss and Take-Profit

Blindly chasing high prices can lead to flash crashes, so it’s crucial to set and strictly adhere to a stop-loss and take-profit strategy in advance to avoid being unable to exit when trading volume drops drastically. The following strategies can be considered:

Price Triggers:

  • Take-Profit Point: If the price rises by 50%–100% after purchase, consider selling part of the position in batches or all at once to lock in profits.
  • Stop-Loss Point: If the price drops 10%–20% (or more) from the buying point, automatically reduce the position or exit to prevent being deeply stuck in a loss.

Time Triggers:

  • If a significant event (such as team unlocks or macroeconomic bad news) is expected within a short period (e.g., 3–7 days), consider reducing the position and waiting to observe.

Position Management:

  • Only allocate 5%–10% of total capital to high-risk assets like meme coins to avoid excessive volatility on overall funds.

Comprehensive Information Assessment:

In addition to monitoring on-chain large transfers and unlock schedules, keep a close eye on the following factors:

  • Social Media Activity and Sentiment
    Is there a sharp decline or increase in activity on platforms like Twitter, Discord, or Telegram?
    Are major influencers (KOLs) shifting towards a bearish or bullish outlook?
  • Team Announcements and External News
    Has the team announced new unlock or burn plans?
    Are there any negative news or regulatory pressures related to the project?
  • Market Environment
    Are mainstream coins (e.g., BTC, ETH) in a period of volatility or downturn, which could affect the risk appetite of investors?
    Are other new meme coins causing a “siphoning effect,” leading to a loss of funds for $TRUMP?

Small Positions, Quick In and Out

Since $TRUMP lacks substantial use cases and its price is mainly driven by political news and community sentiment, investing only a small amount of funds that can be affordably lost is advisable. Focus on swing trading and avoid unrealistic expectations of the project’s intrinsic value. The “100x myth” often cannot last for long.

Mid-to-Long-Term Strategy (3–12 months)

Monitor Team Unlocks and Regulatory Trends

The ability of the team to unlock tokens quickly or conduct large-scale off-market sales is crucial for determining future market performance. If the U.S. government initiates investigations or imposes regulatory constraints, the price may remain depressed for an extended period. Investors should closely follow the relevant policy developments and carefully assess the holding period.

Diversification and Combining with Value Coins

For those unfamiliar with the meme coin space, it’s advisable to allocate most assets to relatively stable blockchain projects like BTC and ETH, while treating meme coins as a “high-risk side track” for experimentation.

With meme coins constantly emerging, it’s important to stay vigilant, gather information, and manage risks effectively to respond to sudden market fluctuations.

Outlook and Reflections

Industry Trends: From Speculative Performances to Ecosystem Reshuffling

Meme Coin Super-Cycle and Retail Investor Frenzy

$TRUMP has the potential to solidify further retail investors’ trust in the “celebrity effect,” possibly encouraging more politicians to follow suit and launch their own tokens. However, high-frequency speculative trading and extreme price fluctuations can quickly lead to a loss of enthusiasm, causing the industry to reshuffle and differentiate.

Accelerated Collision between U.S. Government and Crypto Regulation

With the President personally issuing a token, the U.S. government is now forced to confront a new reality: How can officials or candidates profit within the virtual asset space? How do legislative or executive orders apply? This could lead to stricter control over capital flows, or prompt more institutions to scrutinize the legality and compliance of crypto projects.

Re-thinking DeFi Ecosystem and Financial Innovation

Cryptocurrency finance has the potential to break traditional financial barriers, but a few can also exploit it. Extreme cases like $TRUMP have driven the industry to reflect on important questions: Can decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) improve information disclosure? Can contract audits prevent abuse? How can we protect the public from being ruthlessly exploited in speculative waves?

Political, Economic, and Social Triple Impact

Political Aspect

The potential conflict of interest between the Trump family and the presidency could spark new lawsuits. Whether the “monetization of the presidential position” affects the global credibility of U.S. politics remains an unresolved question. The issuance of a token by a sitting president challenges traditional political norms and raises concerns about the abuse of political power for personal financial gain.

Economic Aspect

In a very short period, significant capital shifted from other crypto assets to $TRUMP, leading to a “vampire effect” on mainstream and altcoins. If retail investors suffer heavy losses, it could trigger a chain reaction, diminishing overall investment and consumer confidence in the market. This shift could affect the broader crypto ecosystem, as well as the willingness of the general public to engage with cryptocurrency.

Social Aspect

Social media-driven group hysteria and cognitive biases were amplified once again. Many people now view the crypto industry as more deeply entrenched as a “speculative bubble,” reinforcing negative perceptions. Additionally, the tolerance for public officials monetizing their influence has been tested in this instance. This event forces society to grapple with the ethical implications of political figures utilizing their position to benefit financially from emerging technologies.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The rise and subsequent crash of $TRUMP highlights the potential of meme tokens to trigger unprecedented capital flows, particularly when supported by political figures. However, it also underscores the glaring lack of self-regulation and ethical standards within the cryptocurrency industry. With the U.S. president personally launching the token, retail investors were trapped by blind trust at high prices, leading to a significant transfer of funds to a few large holders. The Trump family has since been labeled with harsh terms such as “pump and dump,” “extracting liquidity,” and “profit-seeking.”

In light of this speculative frenzy, the key challenge is maintaining rationality and addressing issues of ethics and compliance at the government level, which remain pressing concerns for the crypto world.

Research Recommendations:

  1. Strengthen Compliance Framework for Political Figures Issuing Tokens
    Regulatory bodies or industry associations should be encouraged to establish a clear framework for political figures’ involvement in crypto projects. This would prevent public officials from exploiting their positions for personal gain or engaging in conflicts of interest.
  2. Use of DAO Mechanisms to Enhance Transparency
    Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) should implement community-driven risk disclosure and information-sharing tools when launching “political tokens,” thereby reducing information asymmetry for retail investors.
  3. Investors Must Recognize the High-Risk Nature of Meme Tokens
    While meme tokens may offer potential short-term profits, their lack of fundamental value makes them prone to extreme volatility. Investors must practice strict risk management, set clear stop-loss levels, and maintain realistic expectations.

This section closes with an emphasis on regulatory clarity and transparency, particularly when political figures are involved in crypto projects. It also highlights the volatile nature of meme tokens, urging investors to adopt caution and be mindful of the associated risks.

Author: Mia
Translator: Piper
Reviewer(s): Ember、Edward、Elisa
Translation Reviewer(s): Ashely、Joyce
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.io.
* This article may not be reproduced, transmitted or copied without referencing Gate.io. Contravention is an infringement of Copyright Act and may be subject to legal action.
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