Why did Bitcoin rise today? Vanguard opens BTC ETF investment to 50 million customers

After Vanguard reopened BTC ETF access to its more than 50 million clients, Bitcoin surged by 6% to return to the $91,000 level. Why did Bitcoin rise today? The institutional buying surge coincided with over $150 million in Bitcoin purchases at the US market open, marking the largest single-day gain since May 2025.

Vanguard Reversal: The Core Catalyst Behind Bitcoin’s Rise Today

(Source: Eric Balchunas)

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Vanguard’s decision could become a potential catalyst driving Bitcoin toward $100,000 in 2026. This is not only due to its massive client base but also because of Vanguard’s unique position in the global asset management industry. As the world’s second-largest asset management company, Vanguard manages over $8 trillion in assets, with a client base primarily consisting of long-term investors, pension accounts, and institutional investors.

Quinten François from weRate believes, “Vanguard entering any asset class is structurally more important than BlackRock,” pointing out Vanguard’s enormous influence in pensions, retirement accounts, and long-term capital. This influence stems from Vanguard’s unique client structure: unlike speculative funds seeking short-term gains, Vanguard’s clients are primarily conservative investors aiming to preserve wealth for retirement and the long term.

He further added, “If these funds flow into Bitcoin, it means Bitcoin will be integrated into the global savings system for the long term.” This shift could reshape spot ETF capital flows in the coming months. This perspective reveals the deeper logic behind why Bitcoin is up today: it’s not just driven by short-term buying, but rather a market reassessment of Bitcoin as a long-term asset allocation option.

Vanguard previously took a conservative stance on Bitcoin ETFs, having refused to provide spot ETF trading access to clients in 2024 due to concerns about Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory uncertainty. The current reversal shows that, with Bitcoin ETFs operating for nearly two years, a clearer regulatory framework, and continued client demand growth, Vanguard has had to adjust its position. This shift from conservatism to acceptance is itself a key milestone in Bitcoin’s entry into mainstream finance.

Record Institutional Buying: $150 Million Single-Day Inflow

Another key factor for Bitcoin’s surge today is the strong return of institutional buying. Bitcoin purchases at the US market open exceeded $150 million, marking the largest single-day gain since May 2025. Such large-scale inflows usually come from institutional investors rather than retail traders, as retail trading tends to be more dispersed and in smaller amounts, making it difficult to generate such a concentrated buying surge in a short time.

A $150 million single-day inflow is significant in the history of Bitcoin ETFs. For comparison, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw daily inflows of around $200 million to $300 million at launch in 2024, which later dropped to tens of millions or even net outflows during calm market periods. The reappearance of a $150 million single-day buy indicates that institutional confidence in Bitcoin is returning.

The timing of this buying is also notable. Bitcoin previously rebounded strongly from the $86,000 to $87,000 demand zone, regaining upward momentum. The market’s immediate reaction after Vanguard announced ETF trading access demonstrates it was already primed to respond to such positive catalysts. The completion of technical bottoming combined with fundamental bullish news created a perfect rally scenario.

Beyond the ETF impact, long-term investors see the $80,000 rebound as a deeper structural shift. Crypto analyst HoneyXBT pointed out that Bitcoin’s historical fractal behavior suggests it may retest the 1-week 50-day moving average, which currently sits near $103,000. She noted that reclaiming that line would be a “super bull market,” signaling the overall bull run will continue and hit new highs.

Technical Analysis: The Path to $100,000 After Breaking $91,000

(Source: Trading View)

On shorter time frames, Bitcoin has regained key moving averages on the 4-hour chart and is now pressing into the dense resistance zone between $92,000 and $95,500, with the 200-day moving average currently acting as overhead resistance. This technical structure provides a quantitative perspective for understanding why Bitcoin is up today.

The RSI has broken above 60, indicating buyers are in control after a strong rebound from oversold conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, ranging from 0 to 100. An RSI break above 60 typically signals a shift from neutral or bearish to a clear bullish trend—a key signal technical traders wait for.

Key Price Levels After Bitcoin Breaks $91,000

Short-term support: $88,000 to $89,000 (if unable to break $92,000 resistance)

Key resistance zone: $92,000 to $95,500 (dense supply area, 200-day MA resistance)

Mid-term target: $99,000 to $101,000 (supply zone, needs to hold above $90,000)

Ultimate target: $108,000 (projected by several analysts, must break $101,000)

If Bitcoin holds above $90,000 and turns nearby resistance levels into support, it will be favorable for moving toward the $99,000 to $101,000 supply zone. Breaking through that level paves the way to the $108,000 target forecasted by several analysts. This gradual upward path requires each key resistance to be effectively broken and converted into support to ensure the trend’s sustainability.

If it fails to break through the $92,000 to $95,000 area, there’s a risk of a pullback to the $88,000 to $89,000 zone before another attempt at an upward move. Such a retracement isn’t necessarily negative, as it can flush out short-term profit-takers and build momentum for a stronger rally. The key is to watch changes in trading volume during the pullback: if volume shrinks, selling pressure is limited; if it expands, a deeper correction may follow.

As Bitcoin approaches these important technical indicators, analysts expect market volatility to increase as the market tests whether today’s breakout is truly sustainable. Much depends on whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum above $90,000. If Vanguard’s opening truly translates into sustained institutional buying rather than a one-time sentiment reaction, the answer to “why did Bitcoin rise today” will evolve into “why can Bitcoin continue to rise to $100,000.”