Analyst: Bitcoin "risk-off model" indicates pullback risk, likelihood of further downside remains high

BlockBeats News, December 6 — Despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound, CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-averse oscillator remains close to the “high risk” area, a level that has historically signaled a market pullback and reduced the likelihood of a sustained upward trend. CryptoQuant’s “Risk Aversion Model” combines six indicators—downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap performance—to generate a data-driven assessment of market vulnerability. As the oscillator approaches 60 or enters the “high risk” area, the risk of a pullback remains elevated. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also pointed out that the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of loss-making UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs). Historically, this level usually coincides with bear markets and prolonged cooling-off periods. The current -32% drawdown exceeds the normal range for cyclical corrections (-20% to -25%), but has not yet reached the threshold for panic selling (-50% to -70%), leaving Bitcoin in a vulnerable intermediate zone. Adler stated that as long as macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability indicators do not improve, the likelihood of further downside remains high even if the price stabilizes around $90,000.