Here Is Why the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle May Be Truly Dead

Rising stablecoin liquidity, expanding global monetary support, and a high U.S. TGA balance are signaling market conditions that differ from past Bitcoin cycles.

Coordinated easing from major economies and the end of U.S. quantitative tightening are creating a broad liquidity backdrop that may extend Bitcoin’s growth phase.

Potential policy changes, renewed bank-lending flexibility, and improving economic indicators suggest a market structure no longer aligned with the historic four-year pattern.

Bitcoin 4-year cycle discussions are taking a new direction as emerging data suggests the long-standing pattern may no longer define market behavior. Recent global liquidity trends point to a different structure forming across the crypto landscape, challenging the assumption that halvings still dictate the asset’s major turning points. Analysts note that most of Bitcoin’s strongest moves over the past decade coincided with liquidity expansion rather than block reward adjustments, opening the door to a broader and longer market phase.

This shifting structure is becoming clearer as stablecoin supply rises despite periods of market weakness. The trend indicates that larger market participants have not withdrawn from crypto. Instead, they appear to be holding substantial reserves and waiting for favorable macro conditions. This positions the market for a trajectory that may no longer align with the familiar four-year pattern.

Global Liquidity Trends Support a Break From the Traditional Cycle

In a recent post, Bull Theory outlined why the Bitcoin 4-year cycle may be losing relevance. The first signal comes from stablecoin liquidity, which continues increasing even during drawdowns. Historically, rising stablecoin supply has been associated with preparation for renewed accumulation, rather than capital exiting the ecosystem. This suggests that long-term investors remain active.

The U.S. Treasury General Account is also shaping the conversation. With the balance near $940 billion, far above typical levels, analysts note that this excess capital eventually returns to financial markets. Once it flows back into the system, financing conditions tend to improve. That shift often benefits risk assets, including Bitcoin, earlier than traditional markets.

The halting of U.S. quantitative tightening marks another turning point. Bull Theory pointed out that the end of QT has historically been the early stage of renewed liquidity expansion. Bitcoin has rarely moved against that direction in past cycles, reinforcing the idea that liquidity, not halving dates, has been the dominant force behind major price movements.

International economic strategies add more support to this view. China continues injecting liquidity, Japan recently approved a large stimulus package while easing crypto regulations, and Canada is preparing for policy easing. When multiple economies expand liquidity at the same time, risk assets usually respond well before broader markets do.

Policy Shifts and Credit Conditions Signal a New Market Path

Another theme raised by Bull Theory challenges the future of the Bitcoin 4-year cycle. The potential return of bank-lending relief tools, such as an SLR exemption, could allow banks to expand lending capacity. Similar measures in 2020 accelerated credit growth across the system, creating conditions that supported asset markets. A renewed version could produce similar effects.

The timeline will be affected by the political environment. The proposed tax restructuring as well as discussions on Personal Income Policy Adjustments and a Tariff Dividend reflect a move towards a more Market Friendly Approach. These developments become more relevant as the 2026 mid-cycle period approaches, a point that some analysts expect to correspond with improving economic momentum.

There is also the possibility of new Federal Reserve leadership that is more constructive toward crypto and supportive of liquidity expansion. Analysts note that periods with ISM PMI readings above 50 have coincided with measurable economic improvement. When ISM exceeds 55, altcoins have historically performed well, suggesting that 2026 could bring a favorable environment.

Combined with growing institutional involvement, regulatory efforts such as the Clarity Act, and rising stablecoin reserves, these conditions form a structure that differs from past cycles. Instead of a sharp peak followed by an extended downturn, the emerging environment points toward a longer, broader phase that could extend through 2026 and into 2027—supporting the view that the old four-year model may be truly coming to an end.

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