Bernstein Says Bitcoin Bottom In, Targets $150K in 2026

• Bernstein says Bitcoin likely bottomed after 50% drop, with no systemic failures seen in prior crypto downturns.

• Strong ETF inflows above $56B and steady institutional demand support Bitcoin’s recovery outlook.

• Firm maintains $150K target as long-term holders and corporate holdings reinforce market stability.

Bitcoin may have already hit its lowest point and could now move higher, according to a Tuesday note from AllianceBernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. The call came as Bitcoin traded near $71,000, following a sharp correction from late 2025 highs. The firm reiterated a $150,000 year-end target based on market and institutional signals.

Analysts Point To Stable Market Structure

According to Bernstein, the recent downturn lacked the systemic failures seen in earlier crypto cycles. Previous declines often included exchange collapses or lending platform failures. However, this correction unfolded without major institutional breakdowns.

Instead, analysts linked the drop to macro pressures and market behavior. These included geopolitical tensions tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and persistent high interest rates. Additionally, leveraged liquidations and profit-taking accelerated the decline.

Despite this, Bernstein described the move as a temporary reset in sentiment. The firm noted that Bitcoin fell nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,279. Prices later recovered from lows near $62,500 reached in late February.

Institutional Demand And ETF Flows Hold Firm

At the same time, institutional demand remained steady throughout the correction. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded over $56 billion in cumulative net inflows. Notably, March 2026 saw four consecutive weeks of inflows totaling more than $2 billion.

Combined assets across these ETFs now stand near $90 billion. This represents about 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Bernstein highlighted this resilience as a key support factor.

Meanwhile, public companies collectively hold over one million Bitcoin. This equals roughly 5.6% of the total supply. Data also shows that more than 60% of circulating Bitcoin remains with long-term holders.

Strategy Holdings And Market Positioning

Bernstein maintained its outlook on Strategy, led by Michael Saylor. The company holds about 762,099 Bitcoin, valued near $53.5 billion. This represents roughly 3.6% of total supply.

The firm also highlighted Strategy’s preferred instrument, STRC. It offers an 11.5% monthly dividend and recorded a 65% rise in trading volumes. Additionally, its structure allows long-term capital without equity dilution.

Separately, analysts noted Bitcoin outperformed gold by 25% since late February. This period coincided with rising geopolitical tensions.