The price of HYPE is facing a risk of a 37% decrease as capital flow turns negative.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is currently trading around $39, down 2.79% on the day after failing to maintain upward momentum above the $42 mark. On the 2-day timeframe, the price structure has formed a double top pattern, while the money flow data has begun to shift to negative for the first time since early March.

The $42 level is where the largest short liquidation zone in the past 30 days is concentrated, serving as a thicker layer of resistance rather than a catalyst for upward movement. This reduces the probability of a breakout above this price range.

Increasing Short Liquidation Pressure

The liquidation map shows a total short leverage of approximately $13.24 million concentrated at the $42 mark. To trigger a true short squeeze, buyers need to absorb the entire amount of short positions.

HYPE Liquidation Map | Source: Coinglass However, with the CMF indicator at 0 and continuing to weaken, current buying strength is insufficient to achieve this, turning the $42 zone into a significant “price ceiling.”

Money Flow Shifting to Negative

The CMF indicator peaked near 0.20 during the period from March 15 to March 19 when the price approached $42, but has since been on a continuous decline, reaching 0.00 on March 26. A CMF reading of 0 reflects a balance between buying and selling pressure in terms of capital value. If it continues to drop below this level, net money flow will turn negative — a sign that outflows are dominating.

HYPE CMF Indicator | Source: TradingView Notably, the shift from positive to negative CMF is often a crucial turning point, with history showing that it tends to lead to prolonged downtrends rather than accumulation phases. The upward momentum that supported HYPE’s rise to $42 in early March has now completely weakened.

Price Forecast: Downside Risk to $21

The double top structure is becoming increasingly clear, with the first peak forming around $38 (early February) and the second peak near $43 (mid-March). According to the measured move method, the expected decline is approximately 37.49% from the current breakout level, corresponding to a price target around $21.

Currently, HYPE needs to close a 2-day candle below $35 to confirm the completion of the pattern and trigger a deeper decline scenario. Intermediate support levels are at $32, $28, $26, and $23, before heading towards the final target of $21.

HYPE Price Analysis | Source: TradingView Conversely, the bullish scenario will only be restored if the daily closing price exceeds $42 — the key resistance zone and the peak of the short liquidation cluster. In that case, the double top pattern will be invalidated, triggering a short squeeze of $13.24 million and opening the potential for an increase to $44 or higher.