This week, Bitcoin has shown a volatile trend. For a steady layout in the short to medium term, you can refer to the following ideas:

The severe volatility of the current Bitcoin market is primarily driven by the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis—from the market's initial expectation of crisis resolution on Monday to the subsequent ongoing policy implementation, which directly triggered the fluctuations in coin prices. Additionally, after Bitcoin fell below the crucial $100,000 mark last week, the market already harbored a demand for a technical rebound, resulting in a trend of 'first rebounding and then facing downward pressure', with prices further testing the $100,000 mark the next day, aligning perfectly with previous expectations.

Our core layout logic has always been: to rely on rebound opportunities to layout short positions. As for the recent support bottom, Xiao Shiyilang tentatively sees it around 96,000, which coincidentally corresponds to the lower band area of the daily BOLL indicator, holding strong reference significance.

It is important to clarify that positive news often has a short-term impulsive effect. Once the market digests it, the trend will still revert to being dominated by technical factors — the current technical formation itself is biased towards a bearish trend.

Therefore, going short is the prudent choice in the current market environment.

This idea of Xiao Shiyi Lang is not only applicable to Bitcoin, but Ethereum can also follow suit; when altcoins subsequently experience a full rebound, it is also possible to layout short positions accordingly. Moreover, attention should be focused on the performance of SOL: currently, SOL is relatively resistant to declines, but if it effectively breaks below the 150 level, it is highly likely to lead to another significant drop in the altcoin sector, even resulting in a halving market.
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