🚀 Bitcoin Price Analysis – November 2025: Can the support level of $100K be maintained?

Bitcoin (BTC) surprised everyone in 2025, soaring to a historic high of nearly $126,000, and then pulling back. As of mid-November 2025, the trading price of BTC is around $102,000, testing one of the most important psychological levels of this cycle—$100,000.
The big question now is: will Bitcoin defend this support, or will there be a deeper pullback?
💹 Market Snapshot
The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $100,900 and $104,900 in the past 24 hours, showing signs of consolidation after several months of strong momentum.
Market sentiment has shifted from extreme greed to neutral-slightly bearish, indicating that traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Current price: $102,195
Daily change: −2.6%
24-hour high: $104,912
24-hour low: $100,930
JPMorgan analysts pointed out that after the cryptocurrency market experienced "significant deleveraging," Bitcoin looks more attractive than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis — a positive signal for institutional investors seeking long-term investments.
🌍 What are the market drivers?
1. Macroeconomic Factors
The global economic situation continues to affect the trajectory of Bitcoin.
Central banks around the world are signaling interest rate cuts in early 2026, but inflation remains stubborn. This uncertainty puts risk assets—including Bitcoin—into a cautious phase.
2. Institutional Demand
After strong ETF inflows in early 2025, institutional interest slightly cooled in October. Inflows in November may determine whether the next round of Bitcoin's rise can begin.
3. Seasonal Strength ( "Month of November" )
Historically, November has been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, with an average growth of 18% over the past five years.
However, this time, mixed macro data and profit-taking near record highs curtailed the rebound.
📊 Key Technical Levels
🔻 Support at $99K–$100KCritical area. If this area holds, a rebound to $115K is likely. A break below may trigger a drop to ~$90K. 🔺 Resistance at $115K–$130KHeavy resistance area. A breakout here could reopen the path to $140K+. 📈 The trend remains bullish with the 200-day moving average at around $92K ( sloping upwards—long-term structure remains strong.
The Relative Strength Index ) is around 48, indicating that the market is in a neutral state—neither overbought nor oversold.
🔮 Potential Scenario ( November - December 2025 )
✅ Basic Information – Integration
Bitcoin continues to consolidate between ( and $130K, digesting the gains made earlier this year. This is currently the most likely scenario.
🚀 Bull market scenario – Breakthrough ) If ETF inflows accelerate and inflation data slows down, Bitcoin may retest the $130K–$100K range.
Some quantitative models even predict that a cycle top at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 may occur at $120K
- although this requires a perfect macro environment.
⚠️ Bear Market Scenario – Falling below $140K If risk-averse sentiment returns to the global market, Bitcoin may drop to the $85K–$275K range.
This may represent a long-term buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a new bear market.
🧭 Key matters to pay attention to
ETF capital flow: Continued inflows confirm the recovery of institutional demand.
Macroeconomic data: Inflation, interest rates, and a strong dollar will affect market sentiment.
Regulation: Any new crypto rules or tax updates could quickly change the momentum.
On-chain indicators: declining exchange reserves and rising long-term holder supply remain bullish signals.
💬 Final Thoughts
$100K
area is now the battlefield for the next major move of Bitcoin.
Maintaining this support could pave the way for another rebound in 2026 – while losing it might mean a deeper reset before the next round of increases.
Regardless, the long-term structure of Bitcoin remains solid. This asset has matured into a tool that is sensitive to the global macro environment, attracting investments from both retail and institutional funds.
Short-term fluctuations are just part of the story — the larger narrative still points upwards.🌕