When you hear "prediction market", what is your first reaction? Most people will definitely think of sports betting and capital speculation. This impression is not unfounded; since the beginning of this year, prediction markets have visibly upgraded into a new type of social information medium — in the "prediction market", the outcome of the game itself is the most priced and fairest "social information source".

Especially in traditional prediction markets, the participation mechanism and settlement process are often shrouded in an opaque black box, while the emergence of on-chain solutions has for the first time provided a public and verifiable structure for "prediction."

As Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, stated at the main forum of ETHShanghai 2025, many people participated in predictions through Polymarket during the U.S. election, which itself is a success and proves that prediction markets can efficiently aggregate the public's true beliefs (for further reading, see "The Moment of Breakthrough for 'Prediction Markets': ICE Enters, Hyperliquid Doubles Down, Why Are Giants Competing for 'Pricing Uncertainty'?" ).

This article will also attempt to reveal this hidden yet gradually emerging possibility, exploring how prediction markets can transition from pricing uncertainty to having a reverse impact on future trends in the real world.