I've been pondering a question lately—could 2026 become a turning point for the US economy? Looking at these three ticking time bombs right now, it feels even more dangerous than 2008.

First, debt. In 1981, US national debt was just $1 trillion; by 2025, it's set to soar to $39 trillion. When debt was low, they could handle 14% interest rates, but with the current debt scale, even a 4% rate on 30-year Treasuries is tough to sustain. Annual interest payments are $1.2 trillion, already the second largest expenditure, even more than the military budget.

Real estate is even crazier. Everyone's focused on AI and debt, but they haven't noticed that housing prices have gone insane. By the end of 2024, the total value reached $50 trillion, while the 2006 peak was only $23.8 trillion. Traditionally, spending 30% of your income on housing was considered reasonable—now you need to earn 50% more than the median income to afford a house. Real estate's share of household assets has risen from 23% in 2008 to 28% now, which just doesn't look right.

Then there's AI. Using the Wicksell spread and capital misallocation as metrics, the bubble is even bigger than in 2008. After 2008, borrowing costs were low, so everyone poured money into AI, keeping the spread positive the whole time. The accumulated capital misallocation now exceeds 60% of GDP.

If these three bubbles burst together, the impact on crypto would be huge. In the short term, expect a crash and a liquidity crunch; in the mid-term, watch out for tighter regulations and institutions pulling out; in the long run, probably only the top projects with real use cases will survive.

2025 has more or less been muddled through, but all the problems are now out in the open. As for how things will go in 2026, let's just grab a seat and watch it unfold.