#ETH走势分析 After spending a long time in this market, you’ll realize that those who truly survive never rely on luck.

I’m not some genius, nor do I have inside information—I just stick stubbornly to a single trading system, the dumbest way possible. After summarizing all the pitfalls I’ve encountered over the years, I’ve found that certain principles really can be lifesaving.

Let’s start with how to manage funds.
Never go all-in, that’s a hard rule. I’m used to splitting my money into 5 parts, only moving 1 part each time, and limiting any single loss to 10%, which means no more than 2% of total capital per trade. Even if I lose five times in a row, it’s just a 10% loss, but catching one big trend can recover everything. This isn’t being cowardly—it’s about surviving long enough.

Next, how to judge market direction.
Don’t rush to buy the dip when prices fall—it’s usually a trap; and don’t rush to sell when prices rise—it might just be getting started. The market won’t wait for you to be ready, but trends will give enough signals. Waiting patiently for confirmation is a hundred times better than guessing blindly.

Here’s another lesson learned the hard way: don’t touch coins that have skyrocketed.
Whether it’s $BTC or some altcoin, if it’s pumped too hard in the short term, it’s basically setting up a bagholder. If you can resist chasing, you’ve already beaten most people.

The only technical indicator I use is MACD.
If the DIF and DEA lines cross bullish below the zero axis, it’s usually a good entry; if they cross bearish above the zero axis, cut your position. Another rule: never average down on losing positions, only add to winners. This trick keeps you from getting deeper into losses.

Volume needs to be viewed alongside moving averages.
If you see a sudden surge in volume at the bottom and a breakout upward, it’s probably the start of a trend. I keep an eye on the 3-day, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day moving averages—only when all of them turn up do I dare say it’s really happening.

Most important of all is reviewing your trades.
After every trade, ask yourself three questions: Why did I buy then? Where did I misjudge? Has the weekly trend changed? Pros don’t make money by guessing direction, but by reviewing and fixing their mistakes.

This system doesn’t look fancy, but the market always rewards those with discipline. Especially those who can stick to their rhythm even when everyone else is losing their minds.

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