The December FOMC meeting is approaching, and this time a rate cut might really be coming.
Looking at CME data, the market is already pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have recently changed their tune, all predicting action this month. Why? Fed officials have recently made noticeably dovish remarks, and with weak employment data and declining consumer spending, the logic for a rate cut is basically established.
The market response has been very direct. The three major US stock indexes have steadily closed higher, and risk asset sentiment has clearly warmed up. It's even more obvious in crypto: Bitcoin has reclaimed $92,000, and Ethereum has jumped over 5% in tandem. Once liquidity loosens, everyone knows where the money will flow.
But that said, even if this rate cut happens, can the crypto market use it to kick off a new round of bullish action? Or will it just be a short-term rebound? After all, the macro environment is only one factor—market structure, sentiment, and capital flows will also influence the trend.
What do you think about the impact of this rate cut expectation on the crypto market?
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DAOdreamer
· 10h ago
An 87% probability basically means it's very likely. This Bitcoin rally does feel great, but the worry is that it could be another false breakout.
I do believe in the logic that rate cuts will bring more money into crypto, but the problem is that everything is going up right now. It feels like prices have already run ahead.
The real test is still to come. Relying solely on rate cut expectations probably won’t hold up for long.
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LeekCutter
· 12-06 07:50
87% probability? I think it's 87% of people who are going to get rekt, haha.
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GasFeeNightmare
· 12-06 07:38
87% chance of a direct dump? I feel like this is actually the most dangerous signal...
Before bottom-fishing, calculate how much you can save on gas fees. If you make a cross-chain bridge move, you might end up losing everything.
Rate cuts mean looser liquidity? Sounds good, but I’ve had my gas tracker running all night and still didn’t catch any cheap gas opportunities from midnight to 2am...
Whether it’s a short-term rebound or a long-term trend, the key is when ETH becomes cheap enough for me to be willing to move my money.
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CodeSmellHunter
· 12-06 07:37
87% probability? I’ve lost count of how many times this data has saved my short positions. The key is whether the Fed will actually behave as honestly as the market expects.
The December FOMC meeting is approaching, and this time a rate cut might really be coming.
Looking at CME data, the market is already pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have recently changed their tune, all predicting action this month. Why? Fed officials have recently made noticeably dovish remarks, and with weak employment data and declining consumer spending, the logic for a rate cut is basically established.
The market response has been very direct. The three major US stock indexes have steadily closed higher, and risk asset sentiment has clearly warmed up. It's even more obvious in crypto: Bitcoin has reclaimed $92,000, and Ethereum has jumped over 5% in tandem. Once liquidity loosens, everyone knows where the money will flow.
But that said, even if this rate cut happens, can the crypto market use it to kick off a new round of bullish action? Or will it just be a short-term rebound? After all, the macro environment is only one factor—market structure, sentiment, and capital flows will also influence the trend.
What do you think about the impact of this rate cut expectation on the crypto market?