The on-chain prediction market has given a new signal.

Recently, I noticed the odds change on Polymarket regarding the new Fed Chair—Kevin Hassett’s probability of being elected has soared to 86%. This figure basically leaves other candidates far behind.

Those familiar with US politics should know that Hassett has always been a core figure in Trump’s economic policy circle. Now that the prediction market is voting with real money, what does an 86% probability mean? Clearly, market participants think this is almost a done deal.

There’s no need to say much about the impact that a change at the Fed would have on macroeconomics and asset pricing—the crypto market has always been the most sensitive to monetary policy. In the coming months, it’s advisable to pay close attention to Hassett’s past policy leanings and public statements, as they might reveal some signals in advance.