#ETH走势分析 $ETH $ZEC $LUNC

US inflation data has suddenly shifted direction. The Commerce Department released the September core PCE price index last Friday: month-over-month remained at 0.2%, but the year-over-year figure unexpectedly dropped to 2.8%—the lowest in three months, while the market had expected it to stay at 2.9%.

This report, delayed for several weeks due to the government shutdown, now carries significant weight. The core PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed; by excluding short-term fluctuations in food and energy, it more accurately reflects the underlying trend in prices. The cooling data provides room for monetary policy adjustments.

Interestingly, the government shutdown caused subsequent data releases to fall into disarray, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis hasn't even given a specific date for the next PCE report. However, this report reveals a key signal: even before the longest shutdown in history began on October 1, consumers were already tightening their wallets. Spending growth was mainly supported by high-income groups. Although Black Friday sales were relatively stable, overall sentiment was cautious.

The turning point came in early December. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded for the first time in five months, due to improved inflation expectations and easing concerns about purchasing power among residents. Could this mark the beginning of an economic self-repair? Will the Fed play its rate-cut card earlier as a result?

For the crypto market, rising expectations of rate cuts usually mean improved liquidity. The pace of data releases and policy signals in the coming weeks are worth watching closely.