The Fed's rate cut has finally landed, but before the market even has time to celebrate, the shadow of a yen rate hike is looming. To be honest, while many people are focused on US dollar liquidity, they're overlooking the ticking time bomb that is the yen, which could explode at any moment.

If you look back over the past twenty years, yen rate hikes have never been quiet. During the 2000 round, the internet bubble burst on the spot; in 2007, things were even worse—shortly after the rate hike, the subprime crisis hit, and the Nasdaq was cut in half before your eyes. Keep in mind, back then BTC hadn’t even been born yet. If something like that happened today... well, you know.

Last year, when the Bank of Japan started its third round of rate hikes, the Nasdaq dropped 15 points immediately. The issue is, this round isn’t over yet—if another hike is officially announced this month, things could get complicated. Just look at how crazy the current AI hype is—Nvidia’s market cap is bigger than the GDP of several small countries. If this bubble bursts, who knows how far the chain reaction will spread?

The key issue is yen carry trades. In the past, yen interest rates were near zero, so global capital borrowed yen to buy US stocks, speculate in crypto, and leverage up. How big is this game? We're talking trillions of dollars. Now, with yen rate hikes, borrowing costs are rising, so high-leverage players will have to unwind positions—stocks will get hit first, then it’ll be crypto’s turn. Major coins like ETH still have decent liquidity, but altcoins could get cut in half without even blinking.

Honestly, this kind of macro risk isn’t something you can dodge just by staring at candlestick charts. With yen rate hikes, an AI bubble, and global liquidity tightening all stacking up, you really need to be cautious at this point. Control your position sizes, don’t go all-in, and focus on survival.