2025-12-06 13:21:11

Next Wednesday, the last major Fed event of the year will take place.

Will there be a rate cut or not? The suspense is finally about to be resolved. According to CME data, the market is pricing in an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut—this number isn't just a guess; it accurately reflects traders' real expectations.

Interestingly, the atmosphere within the FOMC is becoming more delicate. Of the 12 decision-makers, only 3 doves remain, while dissenting votes are increasing. It's worth noting that the last time there was this level of internal disagreement was back in 2019.

Simply put, the decision-makers are starting to butt heads.

The focal point of this meeting isn't just whether there will be a rate cut—what's even more critical is the kind of forward guidance Powell will provide. The market is waiting for a signal, capital is waiting for direction, and all the conflicts and games of strategy will come to a head at 3 a.m. Beijing time.

This is by no means a routine meeting—it's more like a storm that's about to erupt.

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 1h ago

Once again, it looks like I'll be pulling an all-nighter to watch the screen. Powell really knows how to pick his timing. There's an 84% chance of a rate cut, but the hawks are increasing? This is pure game theory—I'm definitely not sleeping at 3 a.m. this time. The internal divisions within the FOMC are now as deep as they were in 2019. What does that mean? It means the real fight is on. Forward guidance is the real killer move. Are you ready with your stop-loss orders? Out of 12 members, only 3 doves remain. Are these hawks just waiting for us to get slaughtered? The direction of this market is all in Powell's mouth. All the money we made this week could be decided in that one moment. Instead of blindly guessing whether rates will be cut or not, it's better to think about what he'll say—that's the real flashpoint. The market is just waiting for a signal flare right now, and we're all ready with our phones. This 3 a.m. meeting might be the last big melee of the year.

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RatioHunter

· 4h ago

Powell needs to speak plainly next week. Just cutting rates isn’t enough—he needs to provide some guidance.

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RunWithRugs

· 12-06 13:50

Powell is about to stir things up again with his latest move. Is the 84% rate cut probability just for show?

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BridgeTrustFund

· 12-06 13:48

Wait, 84% probability of a rate cut? If Powell actually cuts rates, my short positions are going to be great.

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AirdropCollector

· 12-06 13:39

The hawks are really about to shake things up this time. With internal divisions like this, they still dare to talk about unity... Staying up until 3 a.m. just to watch this drama.

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ILCollector

· 12-06 13:35

Here we go again? There are really more and more hawkish hardliners now. It seems like a rate cut isn’t as certain as we thought.

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AlwaysAnon

· 12-06 13:26

84% probability of a rate cut? I bet Powell will pull a stunt.

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