Bitcoin Enters Post-QT Era as New Cycle Signals Form and Downside Risk Shrinks

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Bitcoin Enters Post-QT Era as New Cycle Signals Form and Downside Risk Shrinks Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/bitcoin-enters-post-qt-era-as-new-cycle-signals-form-and-downside-risk-shrinks/ Bitcoin is entering a decisive macro moment as the three-year stretch of Quantitative Tightening (QT) officially ended on December 1, 2025.

Historically, this environment has pressured both Bitcoin and altcoins, but market behavior often shifts quickly once QT concludes. Analysts now argue that the next phase of the liquidity cycle is forming, and early signs suggest conditions may begin to favor a broader recovery.

QT Ends: What History Says Happens Next

The macro chart shows Bitcoin’s performance during past QT and QE cycles. The red zones highlight QT periods where tightening conditions weakened digital asset momentum, while the green zones show QE phases where liquidity expansion triggered aggressive rallies.

With the latest QT phase ending after three years, Bitcoin now steps into the black “uptrend zone,” which typically precedes a green QE surge. Historically, this transition has been the point where Bitcoin begins building strength before liquidity expands again.

The chart positions Bitcoin at the inflection point of this macro transition, adding weight to the argument that the downtrend pressures seen in recent months may gradually ease.

Corporate Balance Sheets Are Changing the Market Structure

CryptoQuant’s data adds another layer to the narrative. Severe drawdowns in Bitcoin have historically occurred during deep bearish cycles, but the structure of the market appears to be shifting. The firm notes that strategic accumulation of 650,000 BTC now creates a “liquidity backstop” of unprecedented scale.

The long-term drawdown chart illustrates that major declines have become increasingly shallow over the past cycles. Analysis suggests that with such massive corporate holdings absorbing supply, extreme downside events are less likely than in previous market eras.

This implies that even if Bitcoin faces temporary weakness, the lower bound of its price range may be far more resilient compared to earlier cycles.

Bitcoin Price: Current Trading Structure

On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin is hovering around $89,600, showing a small intraday decline. Recent candles reflect a stabilization phase after a sharp pullback earlier in the week, where price fell from above $93,000 before finding footing near the $89,000 level.

Volume has been modest during this consolidation, indicating that sellers are no longer dominating momentum. The chart structure resembles a short-term base forming around key technical levels.

This sideways movement aligns with the broader macro narrative: Bitcoin appears to be absorbing pressure as it transitions out of QT conditions, waiting for the next catalyst.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

The macro charts tell a consistent story. QE cycles have historically triggered the strongest upward moves in Bitcoin’s history, and QT endings have marked the starting line of multi-month advances. Combined with the structural shift created by corporate balance sheet demand, Bitcoin is entering a period where risks may become more asymmetrical—limited downside, expanding upside.

Nothing moves in a straight line, but this convergence of liquidity cycle timing, corporate demand, and tightening exhaustion points toward the early formation of a new market phase.