There's an interesting cycle brewing that could shake things up.

Picture this: rates drop before lawmakers head out for recess. Washington seizes the moment to refinance its mountain of debt at cheaper terms. Sounds great, right?

But here's the twist—once that refinancing wraps up, the Treasury might flood the market with fresh debt issuance and start dumping assets hard. That aggressive move? It'll likely send rates climbing right back up.

So we're potentially looking at a short-lived dip followed by renewed upward pressure. Classic push and pull.