#数字货币市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Bank of America’s latest report put forward an interesting point: a rate cut in December? That’s just the prelude. What’s really worth watching is January next year.

Why is that?

Let’s look at the surface logic first. At the December FOMC meeting, the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut. But you can guess what Powell’s speech will say—“policy adjustments remain data dependent.” Standard official phrasing.

The problem is, the market is no longer following the Fed’s pace.

Inflation data keeps falling, the job market is starting to loosen, and the Treasury yield curve is flashing warning signals again. The fundamental pressure is there, and the window for rate cuts has actually already opened. So what are traders doing now? They’re skipping over December’s expectation management and betting directly on another cut in January.

The last time this happened was back in 2008. Back then, too, the market’s expectations got ahead of policy.

What does this mean for crypto assets? A change in liquidity expectations.

Let’s go a bit deeper. Before the January meeting, a bunch of key economic data will be released—CPI, nonfarm payrolls, retail sales. No matter if the data is good or bad, it will reinforce easing expectations. Data comes in weak? More pressure to cut rates. Data comes in strong? Inflation is under control, so there’s actually more room to cut.

This is the so-called “one-sided expectation.”

Looking back at the starting points of historical bull markets—the policy pivot in 2019, QE in 2020, the launch of spot ETFs in 2023—every time, a shift in expectations came before capital inflows. Right now, $BTC is fluctuating around $80,000. If there really is an unexpectedly dovish signal in January, where’s the price ceiling?

There’s an even stronger statement hidden in that Bank of America report: the Fed’s forward guidance is failing.

What does this mean? It means the central bank’s ability to “guide” market expectations through language is weakening. Once the rate-cutting cycle starts, capital will find its own way. High-volatility, high-elasticity asset classes—$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, all kinds of MEME coins—will all get repriced.

What’s the current market status? Sideways consolidation with shrinking volume, retail panic, but large on-chain addresses haven’t really moved. This is often the stage where chips quietly change hands.

One last observation:
Sentiment and liquidity often move in opposite directions. The more panic there is, the higher the probability of policy easing. The more hesitant the holders, the more likely they are to chase higher prices later.

A bull market doesn’t start with optimism. It starts with doubt.