Is there really certainty in the market? Yes.

It’s just that this kind of certainty is deeply hidden—it’s not in those anxiety-inducing candlestick movements, but in the set of stable underlying logic operating behind price fluctuations.

Why do most people lose money? Where’s the problem? They stare endlessly at the ripples on the surface (that is, the ups and downs of price), but never look beneath the surface—even though what truly determines the direction of those ripples is the invisible undercurrent below. If you can figure out how the undercurrent flows, those surface fluctuations instead become traceable.

The certainty I’ve worked out for myself is actually a three-layer interlocking logical structure.

**Layer 1: The Market’s Own “Grammar Rules”**

The market looks chaotic, but in reality, it has its own set of rules. Just like speech needs grammar to make sense, price movements also need to “make sense” by following a certain internal logic.

The core of this logic isn’t simply “A causes B”; rather, it’s a chain of interlocking causes and effects:

**The “Life Cycle” of Trends**
Trends have a complete life cycle. They don’t just pop up out of nowhere, nor do they suddenly vanish without a trace.

The starting point is often the slow accumulation of momentum (such as long periods of sideways consolidation), then, driven by consensus, the trend gradually gains strength; once the momentum is exhausted, it begins to decline (a typical signal is price-volume divergence), and finally transitions into a new trend. Each step is an inevitable extension of the previous one.

**The “Waxing and Waning” of Forces**
The bulls and bears aren’t just a matter of one side overwhelming the other. The dominant side won’t stay strong forever—their strength is gradually consumed during the push; the weaker side also won’t remain weak forever, and can strike back at any time after gathering strength. It’s a dynamic tug-of-war.